Precursors 2016! Winners and Nominations

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

NBR and BP correlation:

 

 

Director: Only 2 directors have been nominated this decade; every winner for the last 4 years has missed. Could the curse continue for Jenkins? There's 4 directors competing for the last three spots, so it's possible.

 

Don't think so. The lineup IMO is gonna be Chazelle/Jenkins/Lonergan/Scorsese/Villeneuve with Larrain on the outside looking in. No one else is even gonna be a factor.

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Don't think so. The lineup IMO is gonna be Chazelle/Jenkins/Lonergan/Scorsese/Villeneuve with Larrain on the outside looking in. No one else is even gonna be a factor.

 

That's a bit premature to say considering Benh Zeitlin and Lenny Abrahamson. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

 

That's a bit premature to say considering Benh Zeitlin and Lenny Abrahamson. 

But who else is gonna factor in though? Berg (if Patriots' Day really becomes this year's American Sniper)? Eastwood? God help us all, Gibson (who is gonna need a few high quality movies, and zero outbursts along the way, to shake off his "pariah" status)? Washington isn't happening. And Affleck definitely isn't happening, especially with bad buzz starting to swirl around Live by Night (which even just got shutout by the one awards body that should've been an easy get).

 

The race is pretty thin this year in Director.

[Jake Gittes]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But who else is gonna factor in though? Berg (if Patriots' Day really becomes this year's American Sniper)? Eastwood? God help us all, Gibson (who is gonna need a few high quality movies, and zero outbursts along the way, to shake off his "pariah" status)? Washington isn't happening. And Affleck definitely isn't happening, especially with bad buzz starting to swirl around Live by Night (which even just got shutout by the one awards body that should've been an easy get).

 

The race is pretty thin this year in Director.

 

I'm just saying. No one saw Zeitlin or Abrahamson, not many would have called Haneke or Bennett Miller either. In the light of them I think Washington is certainly possible. Could be Berg or Eastwood, could be someone like Mike Mills for all we know. 

[Cmasterclay]

A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

I'm just saying. No one saw Zeitlin or Abrahamson, not many would have called Haneke or Bennett Miller either. In the light of them I think Washington is certainly possible. Could be Berg or Eastwood, could be someone like Mike Mills for all we know. 

I don't see a path for Washington (especially when Fences isn't even locked in for a BP nom). The stats are not in his favor.

[4815162342]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in.

 

The power of Bahstan.

[Jake Gittes]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A couple of Oscar pundits that I trust alot say that Patriot's Day is playing insanely well with the guilds and might be a dark horse to even win the whole damn thing. I'm not predicting it, but I could see Berg sneaking in.

 

Just in case... I called it first.

 

On 22.11.2016 at 11:40 PM, Jake Gittes said:

Hey Spotlight just became the first movie to win BP and only one other Oscar since the 1950s, maybe Patriots' Day will be this century's Grand Hotel

[CoolioD1]

if patriot's day becomes like a real thing then it could like get an editing nomination or something. it's switching between a bunch of different characters and storyline's isn't it? sounds like showy work for that branch.

[filmlover]

I'm trying to figure where Patriots' Day would figure in other than the top two categories, especially with the techs looking packed. Maybe Wahlberg is this year's "surprise!" nomination? Doesn't hurt that he's a previous nominee, I suppose.

[Cmasterclay]

Patriots Day blends real documentary footage, interviews, and actual scenes. I could easily see it winning Editing if they like it. Probably could win both the sound cats, too. And why not an Adapted Screenplay nod? It's a weaker year there. I'm not necessarily predicting these things but to say it has no other chances seems unwise. I also think people underestimate the power of the acting branch when it comes to Fences. Movies that were mostly acting plays like Les Mis and Theory of Everything have made it in pretty easily in the past, and this seems like it will be on the better received end of the spectrum. I also think the idea that only two "black" movies can get nominated, thus eliminating either Fences or Hidden Figures, is....weird. I don't see anyone arguing that Manchester By The Sea is taking a spot from Sully. 

[filmlover]

Considering how barren Supporting Actress is beyond Davis and Williams (and I guess Harris as well), I would cackle with laughter if Michelle Monaghan got nominated for Patriots' Day as payback for @Grand Moff Tele. I don't think it'll actually happen, though.

Edited November 29, 2016 by filmlover

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Considering how barren Supporting Actress is beyond Davis and Williams (and I guess Harris as well), I would cackle with laughter if Michelle Monaghan got nominated for Patriots' Day as payback for @Grand Moff Tele. I don't think it'll actually happen, though.

 

I want a Greta Gerwig nomination. I mean I'm sure she's gonna rule over us all one day, but why not start with this Academy recognition thing now

[Cmasterclay]

Here's the Satellite Award noms. They usually match the Oscars pretty closely, so worth checking out. Also, their press release is in a weird order, so sorry about that. Good day for Hidden Figures. Hacksaw Ridge gotta be feeling okay, too. They didn't screen Silence or Patriot's Day, fwiw. No word on if they saw Live By Night/Passengers/Collateral Beauty. 

 

Special Achievement Award Recipients

Mary Pickford Award- Edward James Olmos
Tesla Award- John Toll
Auteur Award- Tom Ford
Humanitarian Award- Patrick Stewart
Best First Feature- Russudan Glurjidze “House of Others”
Best Ensemble: Motion Picture- “Hidden Figures”
Best Ensemble: Television- “Outlander”

 

Actress in a Motion Picture

Annette Bening, “20th Century Woman”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals”

 

Actor in a Motion Picture

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “Snowden”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Tom Hanks, “Sully”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

Helen Mirren, “Eye in the Sky”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Naomi Harris, “Moonlight”
Viola Davis, “Fences”

 Actor in a Supporting Role

Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Eddie Murphy, “Mr. Church”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Motion Picture

“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Lion”
“Jackie”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Loving”
“Hell or High Water”
“Nocturnal Animals”
“Captain Fantastic”
“Hidden Figures”
“Fences”

 

 Motion Picture, International Film

“The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”- Finland
“Toni Erdmann”- Germany
“Julieta”- Spain
“A Man Called Ove”- Sweden
“The Salesman”- Iran
“The Ardennes”- Belgium
“Ma’ Rosa”- Philippines
“The Handmaiden”- South Korea
“Elle”- France
“Paradise”- Russia

Motion Picture, Animated or Mixed Media Title of Film
“Zootopia”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“Finding Dory”
“My Life As a Zucchini”
“The Jungle Book”
“The Red Turtle”
“Miss Hokusai”
“Trolls”
“Your Name”

Motion Picture, Documentary

“Gleason”
“Life Animated”
“O.J.: Made in America”
“13th”
“The Ivory Game”
“The Eagle Huntress”
“Tower”
“Fire at Sea”
“Zero Days”
“The Beatles: Eight Days a Week”

 

Director

Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Pablo Larrain, “Jackie”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Screenplay, Original

Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”
Matt Ross, “Captain Fantastic”
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthymis Filippou, “The Lobster”

 

Screenplay, Adapted

Andrew Knight/Robert Schenkkan, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Luke Davis, “Lion”
Kieran Fitzgerald/Oliver Stone, “Snowden”
Justin Marks, “The Jungle Book”
Allison Schroeder, “Hidden Figures”
Todd Komarnicki, “Sully”

Original Score

Rupert Gregson Williams, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Justin Hurwitz, “La La Land”
Lesley Barber, “Manchester by the Sea”
John Williams, “The BFG”
John Debney, “The Jungle Book”
Hans Zimmer, “Hidden Figures”

Original Song

“Audition”- ‘La La Land’
“City of Stars”- ‘La La Land’
“Dancing with Your Shadow”- ‘Po’
“Can’t Stop the Feeling”- ‘Trolls’
“I’m Still Here”- ‘Miss Sharon Jones’
“Running”- ‘Hidden Figures’

Cinematography

John Toll, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Linus Sandgren, “La La Land”
James Laxton, “Moonlight”
Simon Duggan, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Jani-Petteri Passi, “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”
Bill Pope, “The Jungle Book”

 

Visual Effects

“The Jungle Book”
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
“Doctor Strange”
“The BFG”
“Sully”
“Deadpool”

Film Editing

Tom Cross, “La La Land”
Joi McMillon/Nat Sanders, “Moonlight”
Tim Squyres, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Alexandre de Francheschi, “Lion”
John Gilbert, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Steven Rosenblum, “The Birth of a Nation”

 

Sound (Editing and Mixing)

“La La Land”
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“The Jungle Book”
“Allied”
“13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”

 

Art Direction and Production Design

David Wasco, “La La Land”
Barry Robinson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Jean Rabasse, “Jackie”
Christophe Glass, “The Jungle Book”
Gary Freeman, “Allied”
Dan Hennah, “Alice Through the Looking Glass”

 

Costume Design

Colleen Atwood, “Alice Through the Looking Glass”
Eimer Ní Mhaoldomhnaigh, “Love & Friendship”
Courtney Hoffman, “Captain Fantastic”
Madeline Fontaine, “Jackie”
Mary Zophres, “La La Land”
Alexandra Byrne, “Doctor Strange”

[filmlover]

lmao no. The Satellite noms are usually a joke. Nominations for everyone!

 

Also: their founder is named Mirjana Von Blaricom. That is most the Bond girl name ever.

[Jake Gittes]

Weird that they gave both Jackie and Nocturnal Animals some Best Picture and Director love, but snubbed both for Original Score.

 

Of course the real shocker is that someone actually cared enough to nominate Eddie Murphy in Mr. Church. 

[CoolioD1]

just a reminder that the satellites got called out for nominating wolf of wall street when none of their voters had seen it a couple years ago.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

lmao no. The Satellite noms are usually a joke. Nominations for everyone!

 

Also: their founder is named Mirjana Von Blaricom. That is most the Bond girl name ever.

Well, it lined up about 80 percent in Best Picture last couple years, that's all I meant. I'm just happy Nocturnal Animals got some love. I actually really really liked that movie. Think it's been slept on.

Edited November 29, 2016 by Cmasterclay

[filmlover]

Yeah, the Satellites have about as much credibility as the BFCAs (aka they only want to predict the Oscars by nominating everything).

[filmlover]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Well, it lined up about 80 percent in Best Picture last couple years. I'm just happy Nocturnal Animals got some love. I actually really really liked that movie. Think it's been slept on.

I liked Nocturnal Animals too. That said, I'll be surprised if it gets any major recognition beyond a nom or two. I knew after those sure-to-be-infamous opening credits rolled that most people are gonna hate it.