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POTUS 2020

Weekend BO- Actuals Mo 18.53, OCP 16.89, FB 10.43, Arr 5.58, NA 3.16, MbtS 3.13

By POTUS 2020, in Numbers and Data

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, yjs said:

 

I'm thinking more 40~45%-ish then 50% too. Tangled fell -39% with two wide releases and one expansion (Tron, Yogi Beat and the Fighter) 

 

I'd like to see the TC first. Movies fell mostly over 50% when TFA debuted (along with Sisters and Alvin) but they did lose tons of TC. (MJ2 -998, Creed -1,069, TGD -851, Spectre -1,415)

TGD fell -58% with losing 850 TC which fell below 2,800 but.. it was TGD. hope Moana manages to keep 3,300+ (its current TC stands at 3,875)

I think R1 will open at least 100m lower than TFA and WOM is strong enough that Moana can sail through relatively unscathed next weekend. I totally believe it can match TS2's fourth weekend drop. I'm just hoping it stays above 3,300 as well. 

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yjs Box Office Gold

yjs

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Gooo La La Land. And Moana too!

 

Jackie is gonna be lucky if it makes $10M in total.

Jackie's like Steve Jobs of 2016. A well-made, actor-driven biopic that quickly lost its award season buzz with its box office failure.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Just now, yjs said:

Jackie's like Steve Jobs of 2016. A well-made, actor-driven biopic that quickly lost its award season buzz with its box office failure.

The movie's been falling out of awards season beyond a nomination for Portman a few weeks now with the dive it's somewhat taken critically. It's this year's Foxcatcher.

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yjs Box Office Gold

yjs

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

The movie's been falling out of awards season beyond a nomination for Portman a few weeks now with the dive it's somewhat taken critically. It's this year's Foxcatcher.

haha oh how we always have that something of 2016. ;) (LLL is this year's the Artist, maybe?)

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Is 300 m OW even possible for any movie? :o

I would say yes. I think TFA would have done it with a summer release. But that said, I don't expect TFA's OW record to fall until 2020ish at  the soonest. We need 3 or 4 more years of inflation at least. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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@FTF

December 9-11, 2016
Weekend

 

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<<Last Weekend <Last Year View Index: By Year | By Weekend  
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Moana BV $18,842,000 -33.4% 3,875 - $4,862 $145,008,593 - 3
2 N Office X-Mas Party Par. $17,500,000 - 3,210 - $5,452 $17,500,000 $45 1
3 2 Fantastic Beasts ... WB $10,785,000 -40.5% 3,626 -362 $2,974 $199,310,903 $180 4
4 3 Arrival Par. $5,600,000 -22.9% 3,115 +200 $1,798 $81,451,708 $47 5
5 5 Doctor Strange BV $4,631,000 -30.7% 2,763 -172 $1,676 $222,362,446 $165 6
6 4 Allied Par. $4,000,000 -43.1% 3,018 -142 $1,325 $35,633,452 $85 3
7 16 Nocturnal Animals Focus $3,193,685 +356.1% 1,262 +1,135 $2,531 $6,219,813 - 4
8 11 Manchester by ... RAtt. $3,155,330 +38.9% 366 +210 $8,621 $8,325,531 - 4
9 6 Trolls Fox $3,110,000 -33.7% 2,786 -370 $1,116 $145,490,004 $125 6
10 7 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $2,300,000 -31.2% 2,277 -217 $1,010 $60,862,448 - 6
11 41 Miss Sloane EC $1,900,000 +4,136.1% 1,648 +1,644 $1,153 $2,038,365 - 3
12 10 Almost Christmas Uni. $1,401,730 -44.6% 1,258 -298 $1,114 $40,238,215 $17 5
13 8 Bad Santa 2 BG $1,235,485 -62.4% 2,034 -911 $607 $16,800,254 $26 3
14 9 Incarnate HTR $1,098,000 -56.7% 1,737 - $632 $4,240,138 $5 2
15 N La La Land LG/S $855,000 - 5 - $171,000 $855,000 $30 1
16 13 Loving Focus $623,380 -35.7% 572 +126 $1,090 $6,565,642 - 6
17 12 The Edge of Seventeen STX $620,000 -61.4% 932 -676 $665 $13,869,697 $9 4
18 14 Moonlight (2016) A24 $589,627 -30.3% 449 -125 $1,313 $10,804,378 - 8
19 22 Jackie FoxS $495,000 +77.6% 26 +21 $19,038 $859,825  
Edited by terrestrial
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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

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10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I highly doubt Moana's 3d share has ever been much at all, so I don't think the loss there will be a big deal. I feel like you're using The Good Dinosaur last year as your comparison point here, which is not a good one for many reasons. R1 will open big, but it won't be anywhere near a box office 250m+ black hole that leaves no room for anything else to gross. TGD was already a surefire flop by the time TFA opened, it had been having poor holds and nothing was going to save it so of course theaters were done with it and the tc got slashed. Moana on the other hand has good to great WOM judging by holds so far, and it will have been the top grosser for about three weeks when R1 opens, I doubt it will get as extreme of a tc slash. Finally, TGD had a direct competitor opening that weekend in addition to TFA in the form of Alvin, which even though that didn't open huge probably still shaved a little off of TGD's gross that weekend. 40% drop tops for Moana, I think between 30-35%. 

Wasn't looking at TGD. Zoo and TJB  dropped 10-15% more than usual against CA3. Same with Zoo vs BvS.

15% addition drop or more is normal against a 125m+ release. The Theater count won't drop much, but a lot screens/showtimes and even more seats will be lost. Moana held -35% this weekend. It will be upper 40s next weekend.

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