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ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Dementeleus, in Numbers and Data

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Dementeleus

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Just now, GiantCALBears said:

If you would've told the forum before release TFA was going to do $930m domestic I guarantee the consensus would've been $1.3b+ OS. The good news is we under predicted the domestic share so maybe this isn't foreshadowing of what is to come.

 

Well, you and I had similar under-predictions for TFA so I think we're basically in agreement. And if people thought R1 (and the SW franchise in general) would suddenly develop fantasy-esque 33/67 splits between domestic and OS then I disagree with them now and I would've disagreed with them then. But that doesn't really point to an overall worldwide disappointment... at least, not yet.

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I mean, just how low do you think the OS gross can go? Below 500m? I honestly don't know, I don't really follow OS BO all that much.

 

Seems unlikely to be that low. I mean, as folks have noted, AotC did 338M OS while Two Towers was at 583M and RotK was 742M the next year. And as Tele said, Sith did beat out Narnia OS but only just barely.

 

The point being, Domestically, its a rampaging, unstoppable juggernaut. But WW, its merely a very successful franchise. Without question, its the strongest franchise ever, domestically. WW, one could argue that its the best franchise ever, but plenty of people would disagree with you.

 

So, there's a bit of a dichotomy going on there. Many folks are aware of this, but that doesn't mean there aren't lots of people who make wildly overenthusiastic predictions.

 

GiantCALBears, since you don't bring up any actual numbers, I'm guessing your anticipated outrage is based on half-remembered guesses as to what you think people projected, rather than having actually looked at the projections and found them to be wildly optimistic. You might be right, but I'm not sure you're actually basing this on anything or not.

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James Summer Tentpole

James

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You know, looking at this thread and the Buzz and Tracking one I am really glad I said my piece about the frontloading stuff when I had the chance because now the walls of text some of you are writing are just ridiculous. Plus, I have an exam tomorrow so it's probably better not to lose even more time here...

Spoiler

... oh, who am I kidding?<_< 

 

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GiantCALBears Global Phenomenon

GiantCALBears

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4 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Well, you and I had similar under-predictions for TFA so I think we're basically in agreement. And if people thought R1 (and the SW franchise in general) would suddenly develop fantasy-esque 33/67 splits between domestic and OS then I disagree with them now and I would've disagreed with them then. But that doesn't really point to an overall worldwide disappointment... at least, not yet.

I changed it to IS foreshadowing so it makes sense although I adjusted my domestic predict higher this time around.

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GiantCALBears Global Phenomenon

GiantCALBears

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5 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Seems unlikely to be that low. I mean, as folks have noted, AotC did 338M OS while Two Towers was at 583M and RotK was 742M the next year. And as Tele said, Sith did beat out Narnia OS but only just barely.

 

The point being, Domestically, its a rampaging, unstoppable juggernaut. But WW, its merely a very successful franchise. Without question, its the strongest franchise ever, domestically. WW, one could argue that its the best franchise ever, but plenty of people would disagree with you.

 

So, there's a bit of a dichotomy going on there. Many folks are aware of this, but that doesn't mean there aren't lots of people who make wildly overenthusiastic predictions.

 

GiantCALBears, since you don't bring up any actual numbers, I'm guessing your anticipated outrage is based on half-remembered guesses as to what you think people projected, rather than having actually looked at the projections and found them to be wildly optimistic. You might be right, but I'm not sure you're actually basing this on anything or not.

Wtf are you talking about? I always look at the numbers first thanks though. 

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

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15 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

If you would've told the forum before release TFA was going to do $930m domestic I guarantee the consensus would've been $1.3b+ OS. The good news is we under predicted the domestic share so maybe this is foreshadowing of what is to come.

 

Yeah, you're indeed on the mark about this. OS predicts varied a good bit, but regardless of whether you look at mean or median or cut off the outliers, you still end up with a collective OS predict between 1.30-1.35B, so 170-220M higher than where it came in. Its funny that the OS predict ended up almost exactly as low as the DOM predict was high.

 

Edit - If you look at the numbers first, you should say that and sprinkle in some of what you've looked at to beef up your point. If you'd opened up with what Tele did, everyone would be going "OOOh, good point!" instead of arguing. I think part of it is that you may come across more stridently than you intend. Lines like "I don't want to hear now from the same people who were saying it IS a SW MOVIE to now go back on that in your analysis using "spin off" if it underperforms expectations." comes across as pretty confrontationally, because since you're not addressing everyone specifically, it feels like you're addressing everyone collectively.

Edited by Wrath
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GiantCALBears Global Phenomenon

GiantCALBears

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11 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Yeah, you're indeed on the mark about this. OS predicts varied a good bit, but regardless of whether you look at mean or median or cut off the outliers, you still end up with a collective OS predict between 1.30-1.35B, so 170-220M higher than where it came in. Its funny that the OS predict ended up almost exactly as low as the DOM predict was high.

 

Edit - If you look at the numbers first, you should say that and sprinkle in some of what you've looked at to beef up your point. If you'd opened up with what Tele did, everyone would be going "OOOh, good point!" instead of arguing. I think part of it is that you may come across more stridently than you intend. Lines like "I don't want to hear now from the same people who were saying it IS a SW MOVIE to now go back on that in your analysis using "spin off" if it underperforms expectations." comes across as pretty confrontationally, because since you're not addressing everyone specifically, it feels like you're addressing everyone collectively.

That's fair, I did make that comment off of memory but I wasn't wrong that we over predicted the OS a decent amount and the OS share % we were off even further. So I wasn't wrong on that point but you are right I should've provided the data first like Tele did.

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SteveJaros Box Office Gold

SteveJaros

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27 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

If you would've told the forum before release TFA was going to do $930m domestic I guarantee the consensus would've been $1.3b+ OS. The good news is we under predicted the domestic share so maybe this is foreshadowing of what is to come.

 

Still stunned that TFA did less OS than Furious 7.  

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