The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

True though as seen here, despite the costs you (we all) pay the company is losing money.  They basically make no money on showing movies at all

Is that not a bit of a dramatization over one bad quarter result ?:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/financials?p=AMC

[Rumpot]

19 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Is that not a bit of a dramatization over one bad quarter result ?:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/financials?p=AMC

For sure, but I would still say they don't make money on showing movies.  They may have more power now that they are bigger (remains to be seen) but otherwise they retain less than half of ticket sales which are far more than absorbed by the cost of rent, electricity, staffing, maintenance/renovations.  Without concessions the business would have no viability 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

For sure, but I would still say they don't make money on showing movies.  They may have more power now that they are bigger (remains to be seen) but otherwise they retain less than half of ticket sales which are far more than absorbed by the cost of rent, electricity, staffing, maintenance/renovations.  Without concessions the business would have no viability 

The theater chain profit is certainly smaller than the concessions revenues, but they keep close to half the ticket sales and make more money from ticket than concessions.

 

http://investor.amctheatres.com/AsReported/Index

 

In 2013 for an example:

Revenues
Admissions	1847
Food and beverage	787
Other theatre	115
Total revenues	2749
Operating costs and expenses
Film exhibition costs	977
Food and beverage costs	107
Operating expense	727
Rent	452
gross profit margin
movies:	870
Concession:	680

 

Remove that 680m from concession gross profit and the 180m annual profit would turn into a 500m loss, but the ticket sales is still the biggest revenue source (although with much small margin) 

 

 

 

 

[Rumpot]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The theater chain profit is certainly smaller than the concessions revenues, but they keep close to half the ticket sales and make more money from ticket than concessions.

 

http://investor.amctheatres.com/AsReported/Index

 

In 2013 for an example:

Revenues
Admissions	1847
Food and beverage	787
Other theatre	115
Total revenues	2749
Operating costs and expenses
Film exhibition costs	977
Food and beverage costs	107
Operating expense	727
Rent	452
gross profit margin
movies:	870
Concession:	680

 

Remove that 680m from concession gross profit and the 180m annual profit would turn into a 500m loss, but the ticket sales is still the biggest revenue source (although with much small margin) 

 

 

 

 

I think we agree actually - no doubt the revenue is way higher for admissions and that results in a higher overall contribution to the profit (sometimes? all the time? not sure) despite the much lower margin.  But I don't think this is the theater being "greedy" perse as their cut of that admission ticket by itself isn't enough to cover their operating cost+film exhibition cost.  The higher ticket price is probably more influenced by a tug of war with studios as I think the sweet spot for theaters would be a slightly lower price (assuming the same margin) leading to more admissions and more concessions revenue.  

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Rumpot said:

I think we agree actually -

Think so yes.

 

One issue with lower ticket price, it become harder to sell high concessions price, I'm pretty sure that all 1$ theater for example have much less expensive food, and in rebate tuesday tend to have cheaper food at the same time.

 

If tickets are $60 for family of 4, paying $40+ for foods shock less than with $25 and $40+ food. Same for beer price with concert/sport event ticket price, it is a bit counter intuitive but often with human nature the more you already spent the more you compare new cost to that total and instead of wanting to pay less for food if you already paid a lot for the tickets it become the other way around.

[Dementeleus]

Moderation:

 

Guys, this is a good discussion but it doesn't belong in the Tracking thread. This is just for talking about presales, tracking, and that sort of thing.

[WrathOfHan]

On 11/1/2017 at 1:01 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Blade Runner 2049, It (these two actually left today for Bad Moms), The Mountain Between Us, Same Kind of Different as Me, and The Snowman are gone.

 

Thor: Ragnarok: 10 (5 2D/5 3D; Biggest, 2nd Biggest, and Average)

A Bad Moms Christmas: 4 (Average)

 

Jigsaw: 5 (Flat; Average)

Geostorm: 4 (Flat and lost 3D; 4th Smallest)

The Foreigner: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

Happy Death Day: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest)

Only the Brave: 4 (Flat; Average)

Suburbicon: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Thank You for Your Service: 4 (Flat; Average)

Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: 4 (Flat; Average)

 

During the weekend, Thor has 21 showings (10 2D/11 3D) across the two biggest and three average auditoriums at the expense of some OTB, Suburbicon, and Foreigner shows. Additionally, Bad Moms gets extra nighttime shows at the expense of Geostorm.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, Only the Brave, and Suburbicon are gone.

 

Daddy's Home 2: 8 (Average)

Murder on the Orient Express: 7 (2nd Biggest and Average)

 

Thor: Ragnarok: 11 (Up 1; 6 2D/5 3D; Biggest and Average)

A Bad Moms Christmas: 4 (Flat; Average)

Geostorm: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Jigsaw: 4 (Down 1; 2nd Smallest)

Thank You for Your Service: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

 

During the weekend, Thor has the two biggest auditoriums and 18 showings across 4 screens while Orient Express has 11 showings across two average auditoriums and the 2nd/3rd smallest with other movies

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[grim22]

Posting during my vacation as Deep Wang provided an update today:

- JL is ahead of BvS and about 25% ahead of where Thor was at the same point in time

- Orient Express is fine I guess, higher than American Assassin

- Daddy's Home 2 is bad, about a fourth of Bad Moms 2 and less than half of Orient Express

- Wonder is the same gross number as Orient Express but has a week to go

- Roman Israel has sold 1 ticket

 

Alright, back to the pool. See you guys Thursday.

[raegr]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Posting during my vacation as Deep Wang provided an update today:

- JL is ahead of BvS

JUST AT THE FUCKING MOMENT I WAS ABOUT TO LOSE FAITH, WE GET A DEEP WANG UPDATE!

 

HECK YEAH, 175M HERE WE GO!

 

If JL is ahead of an already frontloaded BvS that sniffled by bad WoM, we are off to a great start. 

 

(raegr, what if you're wrong)

 

shut up

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Posting during my vacation as Deep Wang provided an update today:

- JL is ahead of BvS and about 25% ahead of where Thor was at the same point in time

- Orient Express is fine I guess, higher than American Assassin

- Daddy's Home 2 is bad, about a fourth of Bad Moms 2 and less than half of Orient Express

- Wonder is the same gross number as Orient Express but has a week to go

- Roman Israel has sold 1 ticket

 

Alright, back to the pool. See you guys Thursday.

That would indicate a 150 OW for JL if it continues to be ahead of Thor by 25%

Yikes at Daddy's Home 2

And lol at Roman Israel. I wonder who that single solitary soul is. 

[WrathOfHan]

We're all sleeping on Wonder. It's been popping up semi regularly on Pulse for a few weeks now, and that Deep Wang number is strong as hell.

[Deja23]

So at about the same time for Thor, it was around 70% of GotG2. If JL is 25% ahead of where Thor was, it’s around 95% of GotG2? If so, I think that’s promising. 

Edited November 7, 2017 by Deja23

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

We're all sleeping on Wonder. It's been popping up semi regularly on Pulse for a few weeks now, and that Deep Wang number is strong as hell.

 

I think it’ll hit 20M OW and have really strong legs

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That would indicate a 150 OW for JL if it continues to be ahead of Thor by 25%

Yikes at Daddy's Home 2

And lol at Roman Israel. I wonder who that single solitary soul is. 

The director's mom bought the Roman Israel ticket:)...

[Dementeleus]

Worth keeping in mind that online presales are stronger now than even a year ago, and that DC movies tend to be a bit more frontloaded than Marvel's when it comes to presales/previews/OW.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Posting during my vacation as Deep Wang provided an update today:

- JL is ahead of BvS and about 25% ahead of where Thor was at the same point in time

- Orient Express is fine I guess, higher than American Assassin

- Daddy's Home 2 is bad, about a fourth of Bad Moms 2 and less than half of Orient Express

- Wonder is the same gross number as Orient Express but has a week to go

- Roman Israel has sold 1 ticket

 

Alright, back to the pool. See you guys Thursday.

JL ahead of BVS is good but it can be either or since DC movies have great presales and could finish under it OW but 25% ahead of Thor ($153M OW) seems likely.

I can see that

I can definitely see that

Wonder could breakout. $20M is possible

Edited November 7, 2017 by YourMother

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

So at about the same time for Thor, it was around 70% of GotG2. If JL is 25% ahead of where Thor was, it’s around 95% of GotG?

Both those number were rounded up estimate I imagine, but it would be a 87.5% of GotG.

 

146m * 0.87 = 114.61m (87.5% of Guardian 2)

121m * 1.25 = 150m (25% above thor 3)

 

Being ahead of BvS but trailing Guardian 2 / just 25% above Thor 3 seem to show that online pre-sale ticket got more popular like Tele said.

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by Barnack

[Rumpot]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

We're all sleeping on Wonder. It's been popping up semi regularly on Pulse for a few weeks now, and that Deep Wang number is strong as hell.

I agree, certainly would not have expected Wonder to be anywhere on the presales radar especially on JL weekend...If it gets good ratings, it could be strong.  It is apparent that it has an audience.

 

I think it's hard to compare DH2 to Bad Moms which is inherently a "girls night out" kind of movie.  Because of that there was coordination between friends to see it together and I think the presales were much higher than overall demand was.  DH2 on the other hand...I assume very few groups of friends would be coordinating going together.  It is more of a family friendly movie at PG-13.

[Deja23]

4 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I agree, certainly would not have expected Wonder to be anywhere on the presales radar especially on JL weekend...If it gets good ratings, it could be strong.  It is apparent that it has an audience.

 

I’ve cried every time I’ve seen the trailer, so yeah, it definitely has an audience. 

[ZeeSoh]

One thing to keep in mind with the Thor comparisons is that Thor came in much stronger on its OW than presales predicted. Presales for Thor was about 70% of GotG2 and ended up at about 61% of CW.

 

70% of Gotg2 = 103 OW

61% of CW    = 109 OW

 

As you can see Thor did much better than PS indicated. It did about 83% of Guardians and 68.5% of CW. So using Thor PS and OW to project JL opening would skew the number higher in favour of JL than it could be. 

 

Another thing, as Barnack also showed, is that comparisons this far out does not work. The PS numbers day or two before release would give a much better indication