The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/16/2021 at 11:00 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

The lack of available seating is hurting preview sales growth, but other days continue to climb.  Previews are over 82% full.

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Spider-Man	PLF	41	180	8,251	9,220	89.49%	$14.37	$118,543.90
		Standard	114	668	11,612	14,894	77.96%	$10.96	$127,253.58
	Spider-Man Total		155	848	19,863	24,114	82.37%	$12.37	$245,797.48
T-1	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	59	391	9,086	13,414	67.74%	$14.03	$127,492.53
		Standard	130	958	9,080	18,979	47.84%	$10.30	$93,501.70
	Spidey (Fri) Total		189	1,349	18,166	32,393	56.08%	$12.17	$220,994.23
T-2	Spidey (Sat)	PLF	61	312	8,424	13,616	61.87%	$13.84	$116,589.11
		Standard	125	857	7,262	18,432	39.40%	$9.72	$70,572.81
	Spidey (Sat) Total		186	1,169	15,686	32,048	48.95%	$11.93	$187,161.92
T-3	Spidey (Sun)	PLF	59	507	6,456	13,346	48.37%	$13.87	$89,513.31
		Standard	131	610	4,531	19,053	23.78%	$9.24	$41,886.94
	Spidey (Sun) Total		190	1,117	10,987	32,399	33.91%	$11.96	$131,400.25

 

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Spider-Man	N	116	586	15,042	17,936	83.86%	$13.18	$198,204.19
		Y	39	262	4,821	6,178	78.03%	$9.87	$47,593.29
	Spider-Man Total		155	848	19,863	24,114	82.37%	$12.37	$245,797.48
T-1	Spidey (Fri)	N	96	687	11,647	16,964	68.66%	$13.31	$155,049.96
		Y	93	662	6,519	15,429	42.25%	$10.12	$65,944.27
	Spidey (Fri) Total		189	1,349	18,166	32,393	56.08%	$12.17	$220,994.23
T-2	Spidey (Sat)	N	97	562	8,349	17,140	48.71%	$13.60	$113,535.58
		Y	89	607	7,337	14,908	49.22%	$10.03	$73,626.34
	Spidey (Sat) Total		186	1,169	15,686	32,048	48.95%	$11.93	$187,161.92
T-3	Spidey (Sun)	N	98	589	5,448	17,227	31.62%	$13.87	$75,582.34
		Y	92	528	5,539	15,172	36.51%	$10.08	$55,817.91
	Spidey (Sun) Total		190	1,117	10,987	32,399	33.91%	$11.96	$131,400.25

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Spidey (Fri)	PLF	59	1,191	10,277	13,414	76.61%	$13.92	$143,019.18
		Standard	130	2,369	11,449	18,979	60.32%	$10.08	$115,432.20
	Spidey (Fri) Total		189	3,560	21,726	32,393	67.07%	$11.90	$258,451.38

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sales	Total Sold	True Capacity	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Spidey (Fri)	N	96	1,335	12,982	16,964	76.53%	$13.22	$171,628.32
		Y	93	2,225	8,744	15,429	56.67%	$9.93	$86,823.06
	Spidey (Fri) Total		189	3,560	21,726	32,393	67.07%	$11.90	$258,451.38

 

Friday sales update, started at 11am EST

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Been saying I'm gonna do this all along and I'm going to take the mid-point of that number, weighted slightly higher and call for 49m in previews, +/- 3m.  Laugh if you want at "+/- 3m", but frankly error bars don't get smaller just coz we have larger numbers.

 

Noice.  Considering ALLLLLLLL da variables, I do indeed count this as a win. 👍

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Noice.  Considering ALLLLLLLL da variables, I do indeed count this as a win. 👍

 

No meltdowns today, Porthos  

 

Now if we miss $65M Friday, meltdown odds go up....

[Porthos]

This does mean that Sacto was about 9% off of what TROS/EG was calling for (50/55 = 90.9%).  Can't all be matinee pricing due to ticket price inflation between now and then, so I do indeed reckon that theater closures was accounting for something here.  Is kinda funny tho that a pure 9% lop off would have hit the target more or less exactly.

 

Better than the 15%-20% off most movies had been and much better than the 23% off that previous Marvel movies in Sacto were suggesting.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Porthos

[Movies4Life]

I guess this might be the first and only film for a while to make a billion worldwide since Star Wars 9 in 2019. The Neo of 2021. An anagram for the word "one." Meaning it is the one to save the box office. If I could make a safe bet, I think the next two years will only have one "Neo" at the worldwide box office to make a billion, 2022's being Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness and 2023's being Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3.

[keysersoze123]

Few Big Plexes

Empire 25 - 7668/14115 152481.12 58 shows

Lincoln Sq - 5183/7331 117520.77 20 shows

Disney Orl - 6643/7675 90095.87 35 shows

Universal - 4089/6307 86386.75 42 shows

Metreon - 3093/5896 63083.97 31 shows

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

I guess this might be the first and only film for a while to make a billion worldwide since Star Wars 9 in 2019. The Neo of 2021. An anagram for the word "one." Meaning it is the one to save the box office. If I could make a safe bet, I think the next two years will only have one "Neo" at the worldwide box office to make a billion, 2022's being Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness and 2023's being Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3.

Definitely disagree with this. All 3 MCU films in 2022 will do it. Avatar 2 will definitely do it. The Batman can probably do it and there are several other possibilities (Aquaman 2, Jurassic World 3, Black Adam, Lightyear, etc.)

[ZackM]

On 12/16/2021 at 12:57 AM, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 8,820

Sold - 640,322

Total - 1,483,561

ATP - $14.67

 

I won't be able to update quite as frequently or as granularly as yesterday, but here are Friday's numbers as of ~1:30pm ET

 

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 9,245

Sold - 817,107

Total - 1,512,757

ATP - $14.21

 

[keysersoze123]

Awesome @ZackM. Couple of updates would be great. One probably at 6PM ET and other end of day but this run will take time(unless you can filter out older shows) and do the run around 10PM ET. But do the best you can. We appreciate this data. 

[Legion Again]

2022 is stacked. Half a dozen 1B movies, and highest 4th place OW of any year ever.

[Legion Again]

FWIW, we have people who can see comScore for Fri hourlies which is better than scraping now that we have opened. The most valuable data to have when going to bed tonight is Saturday PS. That will actually beat CS info by some 12 hours 👍   
 

If you’re in the mood for some midday updates, could be interesting to start building a comp base for Sat PS rate behavior on fri, and tomorrow we will want Sun PS at end of day+could be interesting to start building a comp base of sun PS rate behavior on Sat.

[Torontofan]

Business likely be boosted in Ontario as people try to see the film before rules kick in at midnight. 

[Movies4Life]

43 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Business likely be boosted in Ontario as people try to see the film before rules kick in at midnight. 

What makes you so sure of that?

[Fox20]

34 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

What makes you so sure of that?

"likely"

[Movies4Life]

4 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

"likely"

Oh

[Torontofan]

37 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

What makes you so sure of that?

 

I am looking at local theater and shows filled up and more late shows were added as Sat business will be drastically restricted due to covid restrictions in Ontario. 

 

I not seen that before that 3-4 shows be added at like 11pm or after. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Torontofan

[BillionDollarChampioner10]

21 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

I am looking at local theater and shows filled up and more late shows were added as Sat business will be drastically restricted due to covid restrictions in Ontario. 

 

I not seen that before that 3-4 shows be added at like 11pm or after. 

Gotcha. 

[Inceptionzq]

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-2 days Saturday(302 showings): 18770(+2654)/68620(+1522) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 52.76M

 

T-3 days Sunday(287 showings): 4774(+730)/69465(+171) in 15 theaters

 

So like I was saying earlier, I added the sellouts to the total numbers, but not to the daily increase. Probably shouldn't pay much attention to the BW comp, you can see how Premier Access hurt it. 

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(306 showings): 23377(+4607)/69010(+390) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 65.71M

 

T-2 days Sunday(287 showings): 6409(+1635)/69465 in 15 theaters

 

Ahead of what the NTTD Friday comp was at yesterday at the same time

19 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

NTTD final comp: 62.12M

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/16/2021 at 3:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 days Saturday(567 showings): 37422(+4557)/65291

 

Eternals final comp: 60.50M

 

T-3 days Sunday(522 showings): 23621(+3842)/59885

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Saturday(578 showings): 43805(+6383)/66158(+867)

 

Eternals final comp: 70.82M

ATP(all as adult tickets): $13.72

 

T-2 days Sunday(535 showings): 29673(+6052)/60854(+969)

 

ATP(all as adult tickets): $13.48

 

I realized that I didn't do a final Eternals count Saturday morning, so the final is from Friday night. With a like for like comparison, the Friday Eternals final comp at this time yesterday would've been 66.04M. Either way, the Saturday comp is ahead of the Friday comp, just not as dramatically as it seems

 

I'll restart tracking for Matrix tomorrow, and start Sing 2

Edited December 17, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[ZackM]

I know we have real data now, but these are fun to track, so I'll still post a few updates tonight (probably every 3 hours or so).

 

Friday Update 1:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
Before Noon	44,549	-	22,791	-		Before Noon	25,590	-	10,650	-
12:00-12:59	45,391	-	22,013	-		12:00-12:59	31,496	-	13,677	-
1:00-1:59	35,697	-	16,738	-		1:00-1:59	28,128	8,412	11,639	38.4%
2:00-2:59	49,387	21,848	26,359	20.6%		2:00-2:59	34,922	12,639	16,886	33.6%
3:00-3:59	57,840	33,156	38,986	17.6%		3:00-3:59	45,197	20,697	26,215	26.7%
4:00-4:59	51,874	25,989	32,909	26.6%		4:00-4:59	39,492	14,526	-	-
5:00-5:59	40,478	23,137	-	-		5:00-5:59	31,559	13,504	-	-
6:00-6:59	53,061	38,486	-	-		6:00-6:59	41,577	24,438	-	-
7:00-7:59	62,795	49,014	-	-		7:00-7:59	49,192	34,327	-	-
8:00-8:59	48,651	34,536	-	-		8:00-8:59	35,409	20,878	-	-
9:00-9:59	53,405	36,475	-	-		9:00-9:59	38,113	18,721	-	-
10:00-10:59	59,826	40,050	-	-		10:00-10:59	42,073	21,219	-	-
11:00-11:59	19,504	11,777	-	-		11:00-11:59	14,978	6,313	-	-
12:00+	5,733	2,157	-	-		12:00+	3,223	792	-	-
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
Before Noon	9,419	-	4,613	-		Before Noon	32,022	15,100	16,342	8.2%
12:00-12:59	7,457	3,229	3,853	19.3%		12:00-12:59	27,458	10,010	11,968	19.6%
1:00-1:59	6,378	2,331	3,143	34.8%		1:00-1:59	20,284	7,029	9,195	30.8%
2:00-2:59	7,438	3,113	4,089	31.4%		2:00-2:59	23,210	10,876	-	-
3:00-3:59	10,136	5,200	-	-		3:00-3:59	26,730	14,641	-	-
4:00-4:59	8,635	3,431	-	-		4:00-4:59	22,284	10,416	-	-
5:00-5:59	6,108	3,232	-	-		5:00-5:59	18,647	9,766	-	-
6:00-6:59	9,425	6,202	-	-		6:00-6:59	25,440	17,847	-	-
7:00-7:59	9,799	6,723	-	-		7:00-7:59	27,507	20,503	-	-
8:00-8:59	6,393	3,676	-	-		8:00-8:59	22,891	14,672	-	-
9:00-9:59	7,416	4,299	-	-		9:00-9:59	24,351	15,877	-	-
10:00-10:59	9,429	5,303	-	-		10:00-10:59	29,283	16,464	-	-
11:00-11:59	2,921	921	-	-		11:00-11:59	17,247	8,387	-	-
12:00+	272	31	-	-		12:00+	4,582	1,738	-	-