The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Just now, Brainbug said:

@Porthos will you track KotM?

👍

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

And if yes, can you promise that your numbers will be good?

 

 

 

Don't worry about it, @Brainbug.  As soon as you leave this thread, you'll start feeling better.  You'll remember you don't believe in any of this pre-sale crap.  Your film is in control of it's own fate. Remember?   

 

Here, take a cookie.  I promise you, by the time you're done eating it, you'll feel as right as rain.

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, FFH’s run suddenly got very unusual, which has some pros and cons.  

 

On the one hand, it’s very difficult to comp “true midnights+6 day” to any of the “3.5 day” modern openings, so for almost the entire first 10 days or so I’m going to feel pretty uncertain about where it’s headed. 

 

On the other hand, it’s kind of neat to have some novelty. I don’t really have a clue how the MCU will do with good old fashioned midnights in the heart of summer, or what the ratio will be for OD, and that lack of knowledge is kind of exciting.

 

Of course its a whole different era, but when it comes to purely the numbers, it will be interesting imo to see FFH's run compared to Spider-Man 2 (2004).

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

So when is the next report coming?

Moi?  10:30ish PDT.  I have two films to track right now and compiling both takes about an hour total, give or take depending on if I have to write up any notes and/or take my time doing it.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Of course its a whole different era, but when it comes to purely the numbers, it will be interesting imo to see FFH's run compared to Spider-Man 2 (2004).

Yup, a natural comparison. There’s also TASM with that Tues open, but the 4th is one day different between them.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

The Fandango tracker is drunk. The time on the tracker is updating, but it isn't updating the number of tickets. 

It's just the tracker's script updating.  But since it has no new numbers to track, it'll keep displaying the old one.  But it letting us know that it's still checking Pulse is a good thing, IMO,  as that means the tracker isn't broken either (as has happened occasionally).

 

[Cooper Legion]

On 5/3/2019 at 8:27 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 5/3/19 (End of 2nd Fri) 

1	83.6%	Avengers: Endgame
2	3.7%	Long Shot
3	3.2%	UglyDolls
4	2.8%	The Intruder
5	1.4%	Captain Marvel

Pretty much as expected, new releases are higher than yesterday since they’ve been available for the full day, MCU still looming in 1 and 5.    

 

AEG goes from 94.5% of holdovers to 92.6, CM goes from 1.14% to 1.55%.

17 PT 5/4/19 (EO 2nd Sat)

1	79.4%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.4%	UglyDolls
3	4.3%	Long Shot
4	3.3%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel  

 

Nothing interesting today. Curious what day Pikachu shows up. Only need to nudge out CM, which will be doing sub .5M business daily.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Curious what day Pikachu shows up. Only need to nudge out CM, which will be doing sub .5M business daily.

Guessing sometime Monday since it's a rolling 24 hour tracker.  

 

Even with the hiccups and capping, it's not THAT far behind CM over at the Fandango tracker:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-03 12:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	70.926%	36924	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	06.913%	3599	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
3	05.004%	2605	Long Shot
4	03.811%	1984	The Intruder (2019)
5	03.440%	1791	UglyDolls
6	01.955%	1018	Captain Marvel (2019)
7	01.233%	642	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	00.813%	423	Breakthrough (2019)
9	00.795%	414	Shazam!
10	00.634%	330	The Curse of La Llorona
11	00.473%	246	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

Should break into the Top 5 sometime on Sunday night on the hour-to-hour tracker over at Fandango, I'm thinking.  Then it's just a question of making up for Sunday sales over on MT.

Edited May 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Guessing sometime Monday since it's a rolling 24 hour tracker.  

 

Even with the hiccups and capping, it's not THAT far behind CM over at the Fandango tracker:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-03 12:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	70.926%	36924	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	06.913%	3599	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
3	05.004%	2605	Long Shot
4	03.811%	1984	The Intruder (2019)
5	03.440%	1791	UglyDolls
6	01.955%	1018	Captain Marvel (2019)
7	01.233%	642	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	00.813%	423	Breakthrough (2019)
9	00.795%	414	Shazam!
10	00.634%	330	The Curse of La Llorona
11	00.473%	246	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

Should break into the Top 5 sometime on Sunday night on the hour-to-hour tracker over at Fandango, I'm thinking.  Then it's just a question of making up for Sunday sales.

Look at all these flop movies 

[Cappoedameron]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Look at all these flop movies 

what flop movies

[Nero]

28 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

what flop movies

Pokemon, UglyDolls 

[Mulder]

10 hours ago, Mulder said:

Morning count, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-69 (+11), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-117, 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-75, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Aladdin's massive pick-up sure surprised the hell out of me.

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-67 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-126 (+9), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-75, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

So final days worth is Aladdin sold 9 tickets today vs the 11 I counted earlier but I might've miscounted there, Pikachu's starting to pick up as it needed to selling 9 tickets today. John Wick didn't sell any today but seeing how insane it's past two days were it was due to slow down.

[Porthos]

 

Pulse to every last tracker on this thread.

Edited May 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Cappoedameron]

How do you guys measure pulse it's just movie posters appearing one after the other or in this case a whole bunch of the EG poster.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

How do you guys measure pulse it's just movie posters appearing one after the other or in this case a whole bunch of the EG poster.

Two ways.  First off, in the upper left hand corner (both on the web version and on the app) there is the movie poster that ALSO has some detailed info on that sale.  The Old School way, which is still done on occasion (and a huge thank you to those who still do it!) was just to manually count the number of posters that scroll by in the main window for a certain period of time and report it here.  

 

What akvalley's trackers do is, via developer tools, take the raw data that appears in the stream, capture it, and then convert it to some sort of database tracker that he's devised.  There's some detailed explanation in this thread, but I don't feel like looking for it right now.

 

Basically he 'captures' the stream and catalogues it.  If there's no stream to capture, then there's no info to put in a database.

 

That's the simple explanation at least.

[Cappoedameron]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Two ways.  First off, in the upper left hand corner (both on the web version and on the app) there is the movie poster that ALSO has some detailed info on that sale.  The Old School way, which is still done on occasion (and a huge thank you to those who still do it!) was just to manually count the number of posters that scroll by in the main window for a certain period of time and report it here.  

 

What akvalley's trackers do is, via developer tools, take the raw data that appears in the stream, capture it, and then convert it to some sort of database tracker that he's devised.  There's some detailed explanation in this thread, but I don't feel like looking for it right now.

 

Basically he 'captures' the stream and catalogues it.  If there's no stream to capture, then there's no info to put in a database.

 

That's the simple explanation at least.

Wow. Well props to you guys whom do it. 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	6327	7464	15.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     113

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4534x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 5 days before release.           

.4071x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 5 days before release.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-5 days:

JW2           124 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |  9053/11263 seats left  | 19.62% sold]

Pika (JW)    110 tickets sold [0 sellouts/62 showings   | 5271/6273 seats left     | 15.97% sold]

FB2             91 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   | 10837/13377 seats left | 18.99% sold] 

Pika (FBj)   110 tickets sold [0 sellouts/62 showings   |  5896/6930 seats left    | 14.92% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	9210	9783*	5.86%

NOTE:::  Theater adjustments for available seats thanks to no longer blacked out seats resulted in a net addition of 10 additional seats 

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      32

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.8787x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after six days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

Day 6 of pre-sales:

Pika:    22  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |  7704/8009 seats left   |  3.81% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4787x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after six days of pre-sales.

.5083x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald six days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 6 of pre-sales:

JW2                 96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8962/10113 seats left | 11.38% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    27 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   7888/8439 seats left   |   6.53% sold]

FB2                 51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12289/13377 seats left  |  8.13% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    27 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8341/8867 seats left    |  5.93% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Mulder]

Is this the bump you were expecting/wanted to see from DP, Porthos?

[Porthos]

Pulled up my Fallen Kingdom sheet and eyeballing it, looks like about 12% or so of the local screens that JW:FK had that Pika won't have were PLF.

 

Also eyeballing it, right now, a little under 33% of the showings for Pika Pika are matinee (this percentage should go down, though how much I'm not sure).

 

Thinking about making a manual adjustment of about 75% to 80% when basing a number of the JW2 comp.  So, for instance, if the raw sheet calls for a 7.5m comp off of JW2, I'd instead report it as a 6m comp.

 

I'd note the adjustment, obviously, and also report the number from the raw comp.

I could go deep into the weeds and try to finesse the matinee adj by seeing how many sales are there but that's too much effort.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Pulled up my Fallen Kingdom sheet and eyeballing it, looks like about 12% or so of the local screens that JW:FK had that Pika won't have were PLF.

 

Also eyeballing it, right now, a little under 33% of the showings for Pika Pika are matinee (this percentage should go down, though how much I'm not sure).

 

Thinking about making a manual adjustment of about 75% to 80% when basing a number of the JW2 comp.  So, for instance, if the raw sheet calls for a 7.5m comp off of JW2, I'd instead report it as a 6m comp.

 

I'd note the adjustment, obviously, and also report the number from the raw comp.

I could go deep into the weeds and try to finesse the matinee adj by seeing how many sales are there but that's too much effort.

FWIW, even though I had DP2 and BP at near identical sales locally, DP2 did 30% less nationally, a large chunk of it I reckon was the lack of 3D.  So there is some precedent for this.  Just not sure what ad-hoc adjustment I want to use.  I realize whatever it is will pretty much be pulled out of my ass, but I can't really in good conscience try to base a number off the raw sale since there will be an obvious ticket price disparity.

 

I also realize I'll 'lose' a couple of hours of tracking compared to Pika, but meh.  Probably track right up to the line of 4pm and then report. Maaaybe if I'm feeling froggy I'll go up to 5pm or so.  But probably not.  I like to stop tracking before the first main block of previews [not including any special event showings] and if Pika Pika wants to have 4pm showings, that's on it.  Mostly I want to stay consistent and not mess around on times for any future movies I track that have 4pm previews.