The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZackM]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

AMCs are really showing up for this one.

In my Michigan data AMC is strong, but the regional chains are both behind TROS at the same time.

[ZackM]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Do Thursday in night time. In final days those last 5-6 hours in evening make big difference. Start Thursday probably at 7-8PM PST.

I'll just do a final run on Thursday late evening.  My current daily runs are easy for me to manage and maintain a standard 24hr interval.  Standardization is key, IMO.

[Torontofan]

I am thinking a ~200 million opening but with better legs then  expected  

Edited December 14, 2021 by Torontofan

[XXR & Friends]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

BW  - 3.48x (45.91m)

SC -  6.25x (54.97m)

Eternals - 4.77x (45.28m)

 

Average projected forecast =

  Reveal hidden contents

Let’s say these hold true and we do get a $55-65M Thursday (perhaps more likely now with the amazing reviews.) I feel we’d be looking at something like…

 

T - $60M

F - $70M

S - $75M

S - $60M

$265M OW

[katnisscinnaplex]

13 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Let’s say these hold true and we do get a $55-65M Thursday (perhaps more likely now with the amazing reviews.) I feel we’d be looking at something like…

 

T - $60M

F - $70M

S - $75M

S - $60M

$265M OW

While it's trending that way in my regions, it doesn't appear to be that way across the board.  We probably say this every day, but next update will be the most important

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

While it's trending that way in my regions, it doesn't appear to be that way across the board.  We probably say this every day, but next update will be the most important

Yea we will see of course. I will say that the Sacto comp has continued to close the gap on EG and the adjusted comp is pointing to $54M+ right now (against the EG comp). The Sacto TROS comp is right about $49M but I think sticking in the MCU is the smarter play.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Yea we will see of course. I will say that the Sacto comp has continued to close the gap on EG and the adjusted comp is pointing to $54M+ right now (against the EG comp). The Sacto TROS comp is right about $49M but I think sticking in the MCU is the smarter play.

There are various theater closures since EG and the market isn't exactly the same for that comp to work so well, plus other regions like Michigan are lower, I think 45 is more likely than 55. 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

There are various theater closures since EG and the market isn't exactly the same for that comp to work so well, plus other regions like Michigan are lower, I think 45 is more likely than 55. 

We will see. It looks to me like serval comps across the country are pointing to $50M+ and while we can say the comp is hard because of how different things are now (supposedly), I think at these numbers those lines become blurrier and blurrier. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Joyous Legion]

When the EG comp is 54 it means the EG rate 2021 comps would be like 40.5. As a first approximation I would take halfway between there, 47ish. And I don't expect it to gain much more on the eg comp, though we will see what we see.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Do Thursday in night time. In final days those last 5-6 hours in evening make big difference. Start Thursday probably at 7-8PM PST.

He is in east coast. That is not possible. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

38 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

We will see. It looks to me like serval comps across the country are pointing to $50M+ and while we can say the comp is hard because of how different things are now (supposedly), I think at these numbers those lines become blurrier and blurrier. 

It's not supposedly. Pre 2021 comps have been overshooting all year.

[Torontofan]

I think that due to Omnicron certain markets that are very worried about covid - NYC, Bay  Area and Canada would be down quite a bit then they would be normally?

Like they would be busy but not like super crazy busy for a mega opener?

[john2000]

Just now, Torontofan said:

I think that due to Omnicron certain markets that are very worried about covid - NYC, Bay  Area and Canada would be down quite a bit then they would be normally?

Like they would be busy but not like super crazy busy for a mega opener?

Doubtfull, the holdovers seem to be doing normal, if covid or omicron was indeed an issue, we would have see it by now either from the holdovers or the presales.Thats my theory though, i could very well be wrong.

[john2000]

@charlie Jatinder any change in terms of  predictions ow ?

[Torontofan]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Doubtfull, the holdovers seem to be doing normal, if covid or omicron was indeed an issue, we would have see it by now either from the holdovers or the presales.Thats my theory though, i could very well be wrong.

 

Yes but I feel for Spiderman to open to super high numbers like IW or something it would have to attract people who not been to theaters for 2 years.

 

Like myself included and many people  I know are gonna be watching No way Home as the first movie in theaters since Covid. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by Torontofan

[john2000]

By the way since  the time reviews/reactions dropped nwy is trending on twitter with 428k and was for a time trending in my country something that for some reason is hard to do. Anyways i think/hope that we will see a pretty big bump today.

[Tokugennumataka]

I'm way way out of the loop here. Surely with a $170M+ opening it's not missing $600M right? Also, how likely will it become Sony's highest grossing movie ever worldwide? 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I'm way way out of the loop here. Surely with a $170M+ opening it's not missing $600M right? Also, how likely will it become Sony's highest grossing movie ever worldwide? 

It could easily miss $600M off of a $170M open, but the opening will be much larger than that.

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I'm way way out of the loop here. Surely with a $170M+ opening it's not missing $600M right? Also, how likely will it become Sony's highest grossing movie ever worldwide? 

Legs should be good given the awesome reactions we’ve seen so far, but $600/$170 is 3.53x and that’s pretty high. Luckily the opening should be at least $50M more than that. 
 

As for highest grossing Sony movie, that’s Far From Home @ $1.131B and yes this should beat that fairly handedly.

[Tokugennumataka]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

It could easily miss $600M off of a $170M open, but the opening will be much larger than that.

Even during Christmas? I thought 3.5x was easily achievable during Winter holidays.