The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

By 3PM seems too ambitious. 850-900k by the end of the day will be more than good enough. 

Not for NWH > EG previews. Get with the times, Menor!

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

I can see 190 happen with even these numbers we are seeing TBH, but that's my low end currently.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

NY Regal (Local)  

 

SM (12.13.21)

(Friday)

 

(Total) 2688/4971  = 54.07%

 

Oddly, Friday and Saturday have 5 fewer showings and 1123 fewer seats than Thur previews though they're probably going to add.

 

AEG's Friday (as of Monday OW) 5,595/9,189 = 60.88%   - 

 

Friday ($97.46m) Comp  -  $46.82m

 

If I have time I'll do Sat and Sunday tonight (that's a big IF though)

 

 

NY Regal (Local)  

SM (12.13.21)

(Saturday)

 

(Total) 2318/4971 = 46.63%

 

(Sat early shows have filled up 3 times Friday early shows, late shows the opposite so room for growth)

 

AEG Saturday (as of Monday OW) -  4,931/9,189 = 53.66%

Saturday ($109.26m)  Comp - $51.36m

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by TalismanRing

[ZackM]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

I'll check my Michigan numbers tonight and then see how they compare to TROS.  That will at least be a one-to-one data set.

 

Various Michigan Chains

 

SM: NWH (T-3)

 

12/13/2021	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	288	28,653	48,102	19,449	40.43%

 

SW: TROS (T-3)

 

12/16/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	255	20,881	40,776	19,895	48.79%

 

 

**Two of the theaters tracked for TROS have since been shut down, so I removed them from the TROS numbers.

Edited December 14, 2021 by ZackM

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Various Michigan Chains

 

SM: NWH (T-3)

 

12/13/2021	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	288	28,653	48,102	19,449	40.43%

 

SW: TROS (T-3)

 

12/16/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	255	20,881	40,776	19,895	48.79%

 

Interesting, perhaps relatively weaker in Michigan (or maybe just SW is relatively stronger there). 

[Landon1195]

So is $200M starting to look less likely?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So is $200M starting to look less likely?

Huh?

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So is $200M starting to look less likely?

 

Nothing has changed since the last 3 times you've asked about this 🤣

[Landon1195]

I'm just wondering since for the last few hours people here have started to doubt a $200M OW. I'm not trying to be annoying. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

I'm just wondering since for the last few hours people here have started to doubt a $200M OW. I'm not trying to be annoying. 

 

Your poll has 6 votes. Not one is below $200M. So what're you talking about?

[Landon1195]

 

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Your poll has 6 votes. Not one is below $200M. So what're you talking about?

Some people above thought this was going to be super preview heavy like Star Wars and make around $190M opening weekend.

[JFox]

2 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

 

Some people above thought this was going to be super preview heavy like Star Wars and make around $190M opening weekend.

I think people are just sort of thinking out loud here. There's no hard data out there that's making anyone officially change course one way or the other. The only actual data that gave me pause was presales numbers from @charlie Jatinder

[Landon1195]

6 minutes ago, JFox said:

I think people are just sort of thinking out loud here. There's no hard data out there that's making anyone officially change course one way or the other. The only actual data that gave me pause was presales numbers from @charlie Jatinder

I understand. 

[Landon1195]

And I don't think it will be as preview heavy as Star Wars. Because even the MCU during a pandemic is less preview heavy than even Solo and Rogue One, which had more walkups than the Sequel trilogy. For example, the MCU movie of 2021 that had the lowest Thursday to weekend multiplier is Black Widow. It's multiplier is 6.09, and that movie probably had weak walkups because most of the hardcore fans went to watch it Thursday night, while a lot of casual fans stayed at home and watched it on Disney+. This is also hurted repeat viewings. Solo (the Star Wars movie of the 2010s with the most walkups) is 5.99. So even the MCU movie during the pandemic that was also on Disney+ with the worst walkups had a bigger multiplier than the biggest one for a Star Wars movie pre pandemic. And the rest of the Marvel movies released this year have a multiplier above 7. Rogue One had a multiplier of 5.34, while Force Awakens, Last Jedi and Rise of Skywalker had below 5. While I do think No Way Home's will be less than RO, I do think it will be above the Sequel trilogy. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by Landon1195

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

And Rogue One and the Last Jedi had multipliers of 5.5-5.6, while Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had below 5.

 

R1 = 5.34x
TLJ = 4.89x

TFA = 4.59x (true previews)
TROS = 4.43x 

 

[Landon1195]

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

R1 = 5.34x
TLJ = 4.89x

TFA = 4.59x (true previews)
TROS = 4.43x 

 

Fixed it.

[keysersoze123]

@katnisscinnaplex Can you post Thu/Fri showcount for NWH across MTC's. 

[XXR vs XXR]

 

O/U $110M presales? 
O/U $110M OD? 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@katnisscinnaplex Can you post Thu/Fri showcount for NWH across MTC's. 

Spider-Man	A	C	R
Thu	9,391	5,826	5,993
Fri	7,804	6,634	6,354
Sat	8,036	6,760	6,315
Sun	7,552	6,381	6,095

 

A - 590

C - 311

R - 442

 

Totals

Thu - 33,989 (5,682 PLF)

Fri - 36,597 (6,853)

Sat - 37,717 (6,959)

Sun - 35,466 (6,666)

 

I'm up to 3,225 theaters reporting previews shows in US.  The most previously since I've been tracking was BW's 3,109 (ended with 23,129 shows)

[keysersoze123]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:02 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-11)

MTC1 - 38346/279233 595160.14 1603 shows (+4189)

 

This is as of yesterday night. That is above 32 hours of data. 

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-9)

MTC1 - 43221/284818 663250.61 1646 shows 

 

This is few hours less than 2 days.