The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Spider-Man is arguably the most beat-the-spoilers-y movie to come along since The Rise of Skywalker (if not Endgame). I doubt there's gonna be much walk-up business for this over the weekend.

Edited December 13, 2021 by filmlover

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Spider-Man is arguably the most beat-the-spoilers-y movie to come along since The Rise of Skywalker (if not Endgame). I doubt there's gonna be much walk-up business for this over the weekend.

 

I actually think just the opposite.  If there was such a beat-the-spoilers mentality, I'd be seeing far more sellouts than I am currently.

 

(the film this most reminds me of, aksually, is Infinity War, if with a lot more showtimes, and of course, higher ticket prices)

Edited December 13, 2021 by Porthos

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Spider-Man is arguably the most beat-the-spoilers-y movie to come along since The Rise of Skywalker (if not Endgame). I doubt there's gonna be much walk-up business for this over the weekend.

Noone is expecting great walks up, that would be a welcome suprise of course.

[Landon1195]

I can't see it being that presale heavy. Star Wars in general is just way more presale heavy than the MCU.

[JFox]

Long time lurker here.

 

With all due respect (and I mean it with the utmost respect because you guys are the best in the world this and I'm just some guy) I don't think there's been enough attention paid to tracking for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday for this film.

 

I don't know about y'all but, anecdotally, my biggest local theatre isn't screaming $200M opener when I look at seating for the true weekend.

 

I also had this just missing $200M (despite all the signs pointing to obvious over the mark) when I saw Charlie jatinder's latest presales numbers. Extrapolating from those when comparing to others have me around $198 million.

 

I think it's safe to say that patterns are changing. For awhile now we've been able to track for previews and have a decently reliable set of "rules" to use to glean a basic framework for the OW from that (ie. With most Marvel movies you could give an OD multi of 3, Saturday +20% of true Friday etc etc). I don't know if that's going to be the case anymore. Of course the coming preview number points to an OW well over $200M but that is based on pre-pandemic rules.

 

Of course having said all this I can still easily see it going over $200M. Not preaching gloom and doom here. Just trying to adjust my internal box office calculator if you will. I've got to throw all the old equations out the window at this point.

[JFox]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I actually think just the opposite.  If there was such a beat-the-spoilers mentality, I'd be seeing far more sellouts than I am currently.

 

(the film this most reminds me of, aksually, is Infinity War, if with a lot more showtimes, and of course, higher ticket prices)

Well that's a good sign!

 

I may be asking the obvious here, but do you see the holiday legs booming for this? Despite how the OW plays out?

[JFox]

4 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

I can't see it being that presale heavy. Star Wars in general is just way more presale heavy than the MCU.

Again, this is a pre-pandemic mantra. I mean if a Star Wars movie opened now then yes it would probably be even more frontloaded than an MCU film today but the way theatre going trends are headed maybe MCU films are now going to play out like Star Wars films did.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, JFox said:

Again, this is a pre-pandemic mantra. I mean if a Star Wars movie opened now then yes it would probably be even more frontloaded than an MCU film today but the way theatre going trends are headed maybe MCU films are now going to play out like Star Wars films did.

It can still  hit 200+ ow even with star wars multi

[ZackM]

I'd expect NWH to perform closer to a SW movie anyway, given the legacy characters and spoilery-ness.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

I'd expect NWH to perform closer to a SW movie anyway, given the legacy characters and spoilery-ness.

True , thats one of the reasons that almost everyone here is using star wars comps for previews multi etc.

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[Knights of Ren]

WOM is going to spread like wildfire for a movie like this also

[Legion Again]

This pandemic vs pre-pandemic talk drives me absolutely nutty when the data suggests that IMs are pretty much unaffected, maybe actually higher than before if anything. NWH’s low IM will be because of fan buzz and 3PM

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, JFox said:

Well that's a good sign!

 

I may be asking the obvious here, but do you see the holiday legs booming for this? Despite how the OW plays out?

 

Oh, I'm terrible at predicting legs.  But in general probably depends a great deal on the reception/buzz from the first folks who see it.  Still up in the air how this film will be received (and not really the thread to go into it, either).

 

Not like you can't say that about most films, naturally.  I suppose I am saying that whatever spillover occurs from folks not wanting to see it immediately is from lingering 'rona/crowd concerns and not anything in particular about spoilers one way or the other.

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/12/2021 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2528

3795

66.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2369

4317

54.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
15676	410	36658	42.76%	15	240

 

AMCs sold	8041
Cinemarks sold	3032
Regals sold	2893
Harkins sold	1710

 

Eternals final comp: 33.45M

Shang-Chi final comp: 34.19M

Black Widow final comp: 32.52M
Adjusted TRoS final comp: 37.03M

 

Adjusted T-4 TRoS comp: 47.85M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-4: +410, +2.69%

3.87x Eternals T-4 (+106, +5.40%)

4.14x Shang-Chi T-4 (+99, +6.93%)

2.44x Black Widow T-4 (+168, +6.34%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-4(13204): +329, +2.56%

1.18x TRoS T-4 (+279, +2.59%)

 

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2581

3795

68.01%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2443

4317

56.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
16372	696	36658	44.66%	15	240

 

AMCs sold	8226
Cinemarks sold	3143
Regals sold	3153
Harkins sold	1850

 

Eternals final comp: 34.94M

Shang-Chi final comp: 35.71M

Black Widow final comp: 33.97M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 38.28M

 

Adjusted T-3 TRoS comp: 47.36M

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-3: +696, +4.44%

3.78x Eternals T-3 (+184, +8.90%)

2.66x Shang-Chi T-3 (+262, +17.15%)

2.30x Black Widow T-3 (+303, +10.76%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-3(13649): +445, +3.37%

0.908x TRoS T-3 (+490, +4.44%)

Nice jump, but it has fallen behind TRoS' gains. Let's see if reactions and reviews can push NWH back ahead, which I do expect it to FTR.

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, JFox said:

Long time lurker here.

 

With all due respect (and I mean it with the utmost respect because you guys are the best in the world this and I'm just some guy) I don't think there's been enough attention paid to tracking for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday for this film.

 

I don't know about y'all but, anecdotally, my biggest local theatre isn't screaming $200M opener when I look at seating for the true weekend.

 

I also had this just missing $200M (despite all the signs pointing to obvious over the mark) when I saw Charlie jatinder's latest presales numbers. Extrapolating from those when comparing to others have me around $198 million.

 

I think it's safe to say that patterns are changing. For awhile now we've been able to track for previews and have a decently reliable set of "rules" to use to glean a basic framework for the OW from that (ie. With most Marvel movies you could give an OD multi of 3, Saturday +20% of true Friday etc etc). I don't know if that's going to be the case anymore. Of course the coming preview number points to an OW well over $200M but that is based on pre-pandemic rules.

 

Of course having said all this I can still easily see it going over $200M. Not preaching gloom and doom here. Just trying to adjust my internal box office calculator if you will. I've got to throw all the old equations out the window at this point.

 

In regards to your commentary, I will say just to keep in mind that a lot of this “Covid has changed things” narrative hasn’t shown to apply to this film yet. I’m not saying it won’t come to pass, but as of this moment I haven’t seen anything that would indicate this will have a precipitous drop off in walk ups compared to IW or EG. The most recent data hasn’t shown a slowing in ticket sales and until the MCU behaves like Star Wars, I’m going to continue to work under the idea that it’s not on that level yet.

[JFox]

Right now this is what I have for OW:

 

Thurs 47

Fri 56.4 (2.2 OD multi)

Sat 58

Sun 48.1

Weekend 209.5

 

It's a shame because based on that preview number the OW should be a helluva lot bigger.

[JFox]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

In regards to your commentary, I will say just to keep in mind that a lot of this “Covid has changed things” narrative hasn’t shown to apply to this film yet. I’m not saying it won’t come to pass, but as of this moment I haven’t seen anything that would indicate this will have a precipitous drop off in walk ups compared to IW or EG. The most recent data hasn’t shown a slowing in ticket sales and until the MCU behaves like Star Wars, I’m going to continue to work under the idea that it’s not on that level yet.

Fair enough. I mean I could be way off and believe me, I'd be happy to be way off. 

 

I guess what I'd like to know is what different people are seeing for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For me that's the indicator.

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/12/2021 at 3:58 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday(196 showings): 21834(+614)/43829(+152) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 33.82M

Black Widow final comp: 34.81M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-4: +614, +2.89%

5.07x NTTD T-4 (+121, +8.10%)

2.53x Black Widow T-4 (+243, +7.60%)

 

T-5 days Friday(195 showings): 17088(+716)/53130 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 39.38M

Black Widow final comp: 48.39M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-5: +716, +4.37%

3.65x NTTD T-5 (+196, +11.60%)

2.70x Black Widow T-5 (+265, +10.14%)

 

T-6 days Saturday(198 showings): 10909(+728)/51281 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 30.66M

 

T-7 days Sunday(153 showings): 2636(+236)/46322 in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday(199 showings): 22880(+1046)/44309(+480) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 35.44M

Black Widow final comp: 36.48M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-3: +1046, +4.79%

3.83x NTTD T-3 (+273, +16.91%)

3.09x Black Widow T-3 (+339, +9.85%)

 

T-4 days Friday(221 showings): 18229(+1141)/57816(+4686) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 42.01M

Black Widow final comp: 51.62M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-4: +1141, +6.26%

2.22x NTTD T-4 (+514, +27.71%)

2.78x Black Widow T-4 (+411, +14.28%)

 

T-5 days Saturday(218 showings): 12094(+1185)/54773(+3492) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 34.00M

 

T-6 days Sunday(160 showings): 2929(+293)/47558(+1236) in 15 theaters

 

Very nice jumps here as well

[JFox]

2 minutes ago, JFox said:

Right now this is what I have for OW:

 

Thurs 47

Fri 56.4 (2.2 OD multi)

Sat 58

Sun 48.1

Weekend 209.5

 

It's a shame because based on that preview number the OW should be a helluva lot bigger.

P.S. I know this contradicts my earlier statement that I had this just under $200M based on charlie jatinder's presales numbers but when I actually do the math I just can't seem to get to that number based on expected preview numbers. 

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, JFox said:

Fair enough. I mean I could be way off and believe me, I'd be happy to be way off. 

 

I guess what I'd like to know is what different people are seeing for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For me that's the indicator.

@ZackM and @Inceptionzq have posted data for FSS, it’s just hard to get a good idea for that because we mostly only track previews. Presales to walk up ratio will be much higher on Sat than Thurs for instance, but how much? 20% walk up for Thursday vs 60% for Saturday? We just don’t have the data to make good comparisons.