The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR & Friends]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For funsies i do want to see 53-57 but high 40s seems like it so far. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

When high 40s previews is a "disappointment," lol...

 

Though I don't think we have enough info to say for sure, given that the differing preview start times make regional comps hard. Am waiting for Zack's data to see. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Menor

[ZackM]

First update:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	56,730	58,935	3.9%		3:00-3:59	35,916	37,343	4.0%
4:00-4:59	34,110	37,115	8.8%		4:00-4:59	19,617	22,002	12.2%
5:00-5:59	28,036	31,946	13.9%		5:00-5:59	15,892	18,409	15.8%
6:00-6:59	48,217	51,906	7.7%		6:00-6:59	32,507	-	-%
7:00-7:59	59,410	-	-%		7:00-7:59	37,855	-	-%
8:00-8:59	39,160	-	-%		8:00-8:59	23,805	-	-%
9:00-9:59	34,614	-	-%		9:00-9:59	17,254	-	-%
10:00-10:59	44,260	-	-%		10:00-10:59	28,109	-	-%
11:00-11:59	14,329	-	-%		11:00-11:59	7,825	-	-%
12:00+	6,878	-	-%		12:00+	3,983	-	-%
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	8,994	9,287	3.3%		3:00-3:59	29,272	29,701	1.5%
4:00-4:59	4,893	5,279	7.9%		4:00-4:59	19,051	-	-%
5:00-5:59	3,820	-	-%		5:00-5:59	13,880	-	-%
6:00-6:59	7,691	-	-%		6:00-6:59	24,876	-	-%
7:00-7:59	8,990	-	-%		7:00-7:59	28,491	-	-%
8:00-8:59	4,385	-	-%		8:00-8:59	19,429	-	-%
9:00-9:59	4,553	-	-%		9:00-9:59	16,466	-	-%
10:00-10:59	7,394	-	-%		10:00-10:59	24,917	-	-%
11:00-11:59	2,277	-	-%		11:00-11:59	15,146	-	-%
12:00+	951	-	-%		12:00+	9,838	-	-%

[keysersoze123]

We had not seen update from @ZackM yet? That would tell us how MTC walkups are. 

 

Any way few more AMC's.

 

AMC Universal LA - 3205/5647 66422.75 39 shows 
AMC Burbank 16 - 4309/8004 86301.51 25 shows
AMC Disney Orl - 4995/6785 68762.85 27 shows
AMC Metreon SF - 2385/5815 48247.25 30 shows
AMC Eastridge San Jose - 1737/6553 29696.63 28 shows
AMC River East 21 Chicago - 1475/5070 21631.55 22 shows
 

Solid across the coast. Let us see how walkups are now. 

 

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For funsies i do want to see 53-57 but high 40s seems like it so far. 

MTC ratio should be interesting. Hope you get final MTC data from comscore for comparison with Endgame/SW. 

 

Edit: I posted and zack also provided his update. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

Seeing @ZackM data, that's a new.

 

will someone be kind enough to add all the timezone so that I can analyse it. Preferably in format Zack posted. Thanks.

[keysersoze123]

Amazing detail @ZackM. Looks like under 10% bump overall. Not a surprise considering most prime time shows have sold out or really close. Potential for increase is late shows. So if you can track even EC/Central walkups post 9PM it would tell the tale regarding walkups. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing detail @ZackM. Looks like under 10% bump overall. Not a surprise considering most prime time shows have sold out or really close. Potential for increase is late shows. So if you can track even EC/Central walkups post 9PM it would tell the tale regarding walkups. 

Since I track data at very micro level at Harkins, its common. First shows will have very little walkins, but as we go late in the day, they used to do triple/quadruple presales. Here it won't triple but you get the point 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since I track data at very micro level at Harkins, its common. First shows will have very little walkins, but as we go late in the day, they used to do triple/quadruple presales. Here it won't triple but you get the point 

@ZackM data is missing one info on total number of seats for each time interval. Looking at east coast most shows till 11PM are fairly full. So that limits walkups. So potential is greater in other regions and very late shows. 

[Eric is Quiet]

10 hours ago, Eric Osborn said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	288	26,208	48,623	53.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,645

 

Comp

3.452x of Black Widow's Fianl Count (45.56M)

5.516x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (48.54M)

5.003x of Venom 2's Final Count (58.04M)

4.968x of Eternals' Final Count (47.2M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.424x of Star Wars: TROS T-1 (56.94M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	35	296	30,730	49,405	62.20%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 782

Total Sellouts Added Today: 23

Total Seats Sold Today: 4,522

 

Comp

4.047x of Black Widow (53.42M)

6.468x of Shang-Chi (56.92M)

5.867x of Venom 2 (68.05M)

5.825x of Eternals (55.34M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.487x of Star Wars: TROS (59.47M)

 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [11:30am - 12:40pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	0	386	16423	42848	26425	61.67%

 

Total Net Showings Capped Since Last Night	3
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	13
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	796
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1358

 

T-1 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

	%		Sold T-0 Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	337.27		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		46.62m
SC [12:00-12:55]	549.83		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		48.39m
V2 [12:00-12:50]	416.60		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		48.32m
ET [12:00-12:30]	497.27		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		47.24m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG [11:50-1:00]	92.43		1481	25248		79/333	5023/30271	83.41%		55.46m
SW9 [11:55-12:50]	131.09		589	18896		11/267	8856/27752	68.09%		52.44m
NWH (EG adj)	---		1086	23336		0/386	12876/36212	64.44%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		1176	24771		0/386	13756/38527	64.30%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       7634/13256 [57.59% sold] [+426 tickets]

Matinee:    3225/5505  [58.58% sold | 12.20% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The Endgame comp finally, FINALLY went down.  Did start the sample slightly earlier (more because of the 3pm start time than sheer show count), but not enough to skew things all that much, IMO. Still a utterly fantastic start to the day, but not perhaps EG level fantastic.

 

As always, matinees, show counts, one market, blah blah blah blah blah blah.

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six seats or fewer left)

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	4	395	15229	43412	28183	64.92%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid Day	4
Total Showings Capped Since Mid Day	1
Total Showings Added Since Mid Day	9
Total Seats Added Since Mid Day	564
Total Seats Sold Since Mid Day	1758

 

T-0 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	305.82		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		42.27m
SC [4:40-5:30]	480.98		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		42.32m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	364.67		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		42.30m
ET [4:50-5:20]	438.80		642	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		41.69m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG [4:30-5:30]	93.16		1407	26655		158/347	3718/30373	87.76%		55.89m
SW9 [3:30-4:30]	134.85		645	19541		32/272	8504/28045	69.68%		53.94m
NWH (EG adj)	---		1495	24831		4/395	11759/36590	67.86%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		1581	26352		4/395	12627/38979	67.61%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       8235/13321 [61.82% sold] [+601 tickets]

Matinee:    3550/5570  [63.73% sold | 12.60% of all tickets sold]

 

For the record, 2 showings for a total of 12 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or fewer.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	2	395	152416	43412	28171	64.89%

 

=====

 

Apologies for such a late report, but to make a loooooong story short(er), I was completely unable (and still am unable as of 5:05pm) to get an update from one theater.  Trying my hardest to get an update caused a cascading series of delays that ultimately delayed my count for about 15 minutes or so.  The plus side, such as it is, is that I had to reboot my computer at one point, and discovered four more showings added region wide.

 

Getting the ticket sales for those extra showings plus the, oh let's say twenty minutes of added sales that I wouldn't have caught otherwise makes me want to treat this more or less as a wash.  Or at least, "I no longer give a damn".  Whatever sales that theater got from actual-to-goodness-walkups (since no one could buy tickets online) were probs more or less the 100+ extra tickets that I found thanks to all the problems I had.  And if not?  Rounding error at this stage.

 

Anywho, one set of comps calls for 55m, more or less, while the other set of comps calls for 42.5m, again more or less.

 

Been saying I'm gonna do this all along and I'm going to take the mid-point of that number, weighted slightly higher and call for 49m in previews, +/- 3m.  Laugh if you want at "+/- 3m", but frankly error bars don't get smaller just coz we have larger numbers.

 

But, sure, mid 50s could happen.  Won't be surprised if they do.  Just ain't calling it.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

 

I sort of guesstimated the remaining time zones.

 

Alpha - SM:NWH
Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase	Cume
3:00-3:59	130,912	135,266	3.33%	135,266
4:00-4:59	77,671	84,096	8.27%	219,362
5:00-5:59	61,628	69,155	12.21%	288,517
6:00-6:59	113,291	120,606	6.46%	409,123

 

 

I would guess 930-950K final.

Edited December 17, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[ZackM]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZackM data is missing one info on total number of seats for each time interval. Looking at east coast most shows till 11PM are fairly full. So that limits walkups. So potential is greater in other regions and very late shows. 

I can add total seats if it helps.

[keysersoze123]

@Zack - what was the total. There are too many numbers to sum them? Can it hit 900K total?

 

Just put them in excel and added them . its already at 864067. So 900K+ should happen. 50m+ previews should happen based on that unless Alpha has over indexed big time. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by keysersoze123

[M37]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing detail @ZackM. Looks like under 10% bump overall. Not a surprise considering most prime time shows have sold out or really close. Potential for increase is late shows. So if you can track even EC/Central walkups post 9PM it would tell the tale regarding walkups. 

Anecdotally … 

 

The prime time shows being largely full from pre-sales is pushing a lot of walk-ups to later times with more available seating. Those % should rise a good amount as night wears on, depending on when demand stats to tail off 

 

$50 million+ very much in play 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Zack - what was the total. There are too many numbers to sum them? Can it hit 900K total?

I'll have a final total in the morning.  Was 843k at my last presales count.  900k+ seems likely.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I can add total seats if it helps.

Ohh yeah that will help a lot.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Zack - what was the total. There are too many numbers to sum them? Can it hit 900K total?

 

Just put them in excel and added them . its already at 864067. So 900K+ should happen. 50m+ previews should happen based on that unless Alpha has over indexed big time. 

 

Considering the NFT promotion they were running, they very well might have over indexed big time...

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Considering the NFT promotion they were running, they very well might have over indexed big time...

Alpha isn't nearly over indexing as much as Theta. Theta is likely beating Endgame today.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Considering the NFT promotion they were running, they very well might have over indexed big time...

We will know for sure tomorrow. We are definitely in unchartered territories.  

 

  

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Alpha isn't nearly over indexing as much as Theta. Theta is likely beating Endgame today.

 

would that make that much of a blip. I wish we had data from MTC2. But Porthos update is normally representative of MTC2. 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by keysersoze123

[ZackM]

Update 2:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	81,256	56,730	58,935	3.9%		3:00-3:59	55,868	35,916	37,343	4.0%
4:00-4:59	62,526	34,110	37,115	8.8%		4:00-4:59	43,779	19,617	22,002	12.2%
5:00-5:59	51,655	28,036	31,946	13.9%		5:00-5:59	35,359	15,892	18,409	15.8%
6:00-6:59	66,507	48,217	51,906	7.7%		6:00-6:59	47,825	32,507	35,226	8.4%
7:00-7:59	79,105	59,410	64,162	8.0%		7:00-7:59	55,024	37,855	-	-%
8:00-8:59	57,848	39,160	-	-%		8:00-8:59	41,591	23,805	-	-%
9:00-9:59	57,495	34,614	-	-%		9:00-9:59	36,048	17,254	-	-%
10:00-10:59	65,765	44,260	-	-%		10:00-10:59	46,919	28,109	-	-%
11:00-11:59	27,556	14,329	-	-%		11:00-11:59	18,356	7,825	-	-%
12:00+	20,223	6,878	-	-%		12:00+	16,879	3,983	-	-%
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	13,158	8,994	9,287	3.3%		3:00-3:59	38,753	29,272	29,701	1.5%
4:00-4:59	9,417	4,893	5,279	7.9%		4:00-4:59	30,354	19,051	20,039	5.2%
5:00-5:59	6,995	3,820	4,280	12.0%		5:00-5:59	22,136	13,880	-	-%
6:00-6:59	10,523	7,691	-	-%		6:00-6:59	32,777	24,876	-	-%
7:00-7:59	12,391	8,990	-	-%		7:00-7:59	37,442	28,491	-	-%
8:00-8:59	7,292	4,385	-	-%		8:00-8:59	27,183	19,429	-	-%
9:00-9:59	8,236	4,553	-	-%		9:00-9:59	25,478	16,466	-	-%
10:00-10:59	11,560	7,394	-	-%		10:00-10:59	36,104	24,917	-	-%
11:00-11:59	5,611	2,277	-	-%		11:00-11:59	25,797	15,146	-	-%
12:00+	4,053	951	-	-%		12:00+	26,970	9,838	-	-%

Edited December 17, 2021 by ZackM