2018 Billion Dollar Movies (DEADLINE: FEBRUARY 23, 2018)

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah, DORY's international performance stumped me. I fully realize the movie was most anticipated here in North America but it was just so weird how small it was everywhere else. I figured with the growth of international markets since the 1st movie that it would catch on. 

 

Ditto with ROGUE ONE. I realize it was never going to be as big as the saga films, just like here in NA, but I figured the brand was strong enough everywhere for it to do well over $523.9M. 

 

Last year was just kind of a weird year for overseas box office

I think it just increasingly shows the divide in taste of audiences between Domestic market and everywhere else (particularly China), this is going to become a constant theme in global box office performances in the coming years as the Chinese market start to rival domestic. The films that do great in both Asian and domestic market will be the biggest winners. I'm not entirely sure where Star Wars fit in that picture.

[KP1025]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I have not yet decided if I think The Incredibles 2 will do more than 1B worldwide, but if I do think that. I would start with recognizing that Dory WW performance is a disappointment, and it kind of is. The only market that really helped Dory was domestic market, I can't remember Dory doing particularly well in any other market, I'm not even talking about Frozen in Japan or Zootopia in China, Dory was also not able to have a well rounded performance like Minions or even Toy Story 3. From 900M to barely over 1 Billion worldwide is not a healthy increase for a hotly anticipated sequel coming 13 years after the original, the global market in 2016 is simply much bigger.

1

 

I agree about Finding Dory OS number being very disappointing. I still remember the majority of people saying it was locked to beat Frozen for #1 animated film WW ($1.276 billion). $542 million OS is quite bad for such an anticipated film, the 3rd lowest OS gross for a >$1 billion dollar film after Dark Knight and Rogue One. Dropping almost 40% in Japan (local currency) was completely unexpected when most assumed it was a lock for $100 million there.

 

I'm still unsure how Incredibles 2 will do OS, but it should come close to Finding Dory's domestic gross (probably in the $450 million range you mention). I do think Finding Dory would have made over $500 million if not for the incredible overperformance from Secret Life of Pets. Incredibles 2 doesn't look like it has any comparable competition in the animated/family film department for the whole summer. 

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I agree about Finding Dory OS number being very disappointing. I still remember the majority of people saying it was locked to beat Frozen for #1 animated film WW ($1.276 billion). $542 million OS is quite bad for such an anticipated film, the 3rd lowest OS gross for a >$1 billion dollar film after Dark Knight and Rogue One. Dropping almost 40% in Japan (local currency) was completely unexpected when most assumed it was a lock for $100 million there.

 

I'm still unsure how Incredibles 2 will do OS, but it should come close to Finding Dory's domestic gross (probably in the $450 million range you mention). I do think Finding Dory would have made over $500 million if not for the incredible overperformance from Secret Life of Pets. Incredibles 2 doesn't look like it has any comparable competition in the animated/family film department for the whole summer. 

I'm hoping Incredibles 2 could have a similar performance to BH6 in China, which did 83M, with Coco doing well, this is more plausible now, Dory really didn't do that well in China, same with Korea. If Incredibles 2 can get not too far from what Toy Story 3 did overseas, 1B WW won't be a problem, also TS3 didn't do that well in China at all so I2 might already have an upper hand in the overseas department. TS3 did crazy well in Japan and UK so perhaps I2 won't be able to match that in those markets, other markets can compensate.

Edited November 25, 2017 by NCsoft

[KP1025]

15 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I think it just increasingly shows the divide in taste of audiences between Domestic market and everywhere else (particularly China), this is going to become a constant theme in global box office performances in the coming years as the Chinese market start to rival domestic. The films that do great in both Asian and domestic market will be the biggest winners. I'm not entirely sure where Star Wars fit in that picture.

I don't think Star Wars has anything to worry about in the short term, as its domestic and European dominance is enough to compensate for the lower interest in Asia (outside Japan, who have always supported the franchise) and Latin America. That TFA was able to make $1 billion OS excluding China's gross is just incredible, and it also managed to cross $2 billion WW without the kind of OS numbers that Titanic and Avatar had.

 

I do think Wolf Warriors 2 (>$850 million in China) has shown that China's ceiling is very close to the domestic ceiling. Avatar 2 is looking more and more likely to reach $1 billion there given the status of the first film, which almost certainly locks $2 billion WW again.

[Avatree]

Infinity War, Han Solo movie, and Jurassic Park 5.

 

Avengers and JP are guaranteed, Han Solo is a probably, and there's nothing else that will come close. Not sure what there is to discuss really.

[Asyulus]

Moved Deadline to February 23, 2018.

 

Have fun.

[YM!]

On 6/20/2017 at 1:04 PM, Asyulus said:

YourMother (IW, HS, I2, JW2)

Replace Solo with Panther.

[the beast]

Infinity War

Jurassic World 2

Black Panther

Incredibles 2

[MCKillswitch123]

- Black Panther

- Infinity War

- The Incredibles 2

- Fallen Kingdom

[Julianjunja]

Add black panther to the list:

Infinity War

Black Panther

Fallen Kingdom 

Incredibles 2

Maybe Solo

[AN9815]

- Black Panther 

- Infinity War

- Fallen Kingdom 

[MCKillswitch123]

Seems like I got this in the bag (yeah, I predicted after BP's opening, but the club allowed me to anyway, so fuck y'all)

 

@Asyulus Are we getting a 2019 billion movies club?

[martymcfly]

18 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Seems like I got this in the bag (yeah, I predicted after BP's opening, but the club allowed me to anyway, so fuck y'all)

 

@Asyulus Are we getting a 2019 billion movies club?

2019-

 

Virtual Locks: Avengers 4, Star Wars IX, Lion King, Frozen 2. 

 

Possibilities: 

 

- Maybe F&F spin-off depending on how strongly it’s marketed.

 

- Maybe SLOP2, wouldn’t require too big a lift off SLOP. 

 

- Spider-Man 2 and/or Captain Marvel could pull it off

 

[MCKillswitch123]

55 minutes ago, martymcfly said:

2019-

 

Virtual Locks: Avengers 4, Star Wars IX, Lion King, Frozen 2. 

 

Possibilities: 

 

- Maybe F&F spin-off depending on how strongly it’s marketed.

 

- Maybe SLOP2, wouldn’t require too big a lift off SLOP. 

 

- Spider-Man 2 and/or Captain Marvel could pull it off

 

I would not call any of them a lock apart from Avengers and The Lion King. Star Wars, after what happened to The Last Jedi (which still made 1.3 billion, yeah, but it dropped enormously from The Force Awakens) and the complete rejection of Solo, is no longer the absolute box office immunity we thought it to be. And Frozen could suffer from the overexposure that the brand was put through in the last couple of years (especially after that infamous "short" that played before Coco last year), as well as the fact that the 1st one already hit the zeitgeist and usually you can only go down from there. I'd still confidently predict both to cross a billion, sure, but I disagree with them being virtual locks.

[martymcfly]

8 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I would not call any of them a lock apart from Avengers and The Lion King. Star Wars, after what happened to The Last Jedi (which still made 1.3 billion, yeah, but it dropped enormously from The Force Awakens) and the complete rejection of Solo, is no longer the absolute box office immunity we thought it to be. And Frozen could suffer from the overexposure that the brand was put through in the last couple of years (especially after that infamous "short" that played before Coco last year), as well as the fact that the 1st one already hit the zeitgeist and usually you can only go down from there. I'd still confidently predict both to cross a billion, sure, but I disagree with them being virtual locks.

Okay I’ll go with you on Frozen 2. 

 

But SW9 is 1) going to get a much different marketing push than Solo 2) has JJ directing who is not a risk-taker but is instead a crowd-pleaser 3) culmination of the story and the last Star Wars on the calendar for probably a few years. I would be stunned if it didn’t go over $1bn WW. 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 hours ago, martymcfly said:

Okay I’ll go with you on Frozen 2. 

 

But SW9 is 1) going to get a much different marketing push than Solo 2) has JJ directing who is not a risk-taker but is instead a crowd-pleaser 3) culmination of the story and the last Star Wars on the calendar for probably a few years. I would be stunned if it didn’t go over $1bn WW. 

I recognize all of that and that's the reason why I agree that the likely scenario is SW9 hitting a billion and over TLJ DOM. I think it will be a safe crowdpleaser alas TFA that gets everyone back on board. But I can't lock it down for those results, especially the billion, since OS seems less and less receptive towards Star Wars with every passing movie.

 

Avengers and Lion King are the only true locks imo.

[NCsoft]

It's amazing how many had Solo in their predictions

[NCsoft]

There is a strong possibility that we get no Billion dollar movie between Incredibles 2 and Avengers 4, that is a pretty long stretch in this era.

[The Panda]

2018 BILLION DOLLAR LOCKS

Detective Pikachu

Avengers 4

The Lion King

Star Wars IX

Frozen 2

 

2018 Billion Dollar Potentials

Captain Marvel

Aladdin

SLOP2

Toy Story 4

Spidey 2

Fast and Furious Spin-Off

Joker

Jumanji 2

[Asyulus]

Shit...