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Asyulus

2018 Billion Dollar Movies (DEADLINE: FEBRUARY 23, 2018)

By Asyulus, in Box Office Discussion

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Asyulus Blockbuster

Asyulus

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On 11/23/2017 at 9:42 AM, YourMother said:

Avengers: Infinity War

Fallen Kingdom

Incredibles 2 (on second thought I’m adding this back in).

 

You had included Han Solo and Mulan from the first page you posted long time ago. Would you like to keep this or remove?

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cookie Global Phenomenon

cookie

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1 hour ago, Asyulus said:

Dafuq? Thought that it won't get delayed.

 

I'll remove all of "Mulan" words later.

Disney replaced it with that Nutcracker movie on the same date. BOM hasn't taken it off the 2018 schedule for whatever reason.

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Kalo Global Phenomenon

Kalo

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3

 

Avengers: Infinity War $500,000,000/$950,000,000 - $1,450,000,000

Jurassic World: The Fallen Kingdom $430,000,000/$925,000,000 - $1,355,000,000

The Incredibles 2 $375,000,000 - $650,000,000 - $1,025,000,000

 

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AN9815 Indie Sensation

AN9815

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I think 3 movies will do it: 

1. Avengers: Infinity War (1.3-1.4b) 

2. Jurassic World 2 (1.2-1.3b)

3. One of the following ones will surprise and make it (or maybe more:)): 

- Incredibles 2 (+900M)

- Han Solo (+800M)

- Fantastic Beasts 2 (+800M)

- The Grinch (+750M)

- Aquaman (+650M)

- Deadpool 2 (+650M)

 

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Asyulus Blockbuster

Asyulus

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53 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

I think 3 movies will do it: 

1. Avengers: Infinity War (1.3-1.4b) 

2. Jurassic World 2 (1.2-1.3b)

3. One of the following ones will surprise and make it (or maybe more:)): 

- Incredibles 2 (+900M)

- Han Solo (+800M)

- Fantastic Beasts 2 (+800M)

- The Grinch (+750M)

- Aquaman (+650M)

- Deadpool 2 (+650M)

 

Which third film would you pick? So I can list you in the OP.

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NCsoft Box Office Gold

NCsoft

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On 11/24/2017 at 12:18 PM, eXtacy said:

I dont get why everyone is predicting a billion for Incredibles. Finding Dory just barely managed it and its predecessor did 900m. Is everyone just banking on super heroes being more popular now? 

I have not yet decided if I think The Incredibles 2 will do more than 1B worldwide, but if I do think that. I would start with recognizing that Dory WW performance is a disappointment, and it kind of is. The only market that really helped Dory was domestic market, I can't remember Dory doing particularly well in any other market, I'm not even talking about Frozen in Japan or Zootopia in China, Dory was also not able to have a well rounded performance like Minions or even Toy Story 3. From 900M to barely over 1 Billion worldwide is not a healthy increase for a hotly anticipated sequel coming 13 years after the original, the global market in 2016 is simply much bigger. So I don't think it's fair to estimate a comparable global increase for Incredibles 2, there's got to be much more room for growth.

 

I would think that Incredibles 2 would come under Dory domestically but not by a huge amount (425 - 450M, there's so much buzz, this is a more wanted sequel, even if Nemo is more popular). I would think it can do significantly better than Dory in China (now more likely with Coco doing well just 6 months before), Korea and other Asian markets, hopefully also significantly better than Dory in Latin America (they seem to be hot on both Pixar and Superhero right now), and since Dory under-performed in a list of European markets, even if Incredibles 2 do about the same in Europe and Japan compared to Dory, the increase it has in other market might propell it to 1B WW. I think it's fairly plausible, just not decided if it's likely yet.

 

Also, Dory had its leg cut short domestically by SLOP, and globally by both SLOP and IA5, and I believe also a bunch of sport events, and weather conditions in Europe, I don't think Hotel Transylvania 3 will be all that much of a threat in comparison....

 

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I have not yet decided if I think The Incredibles 2 will do more than 1B worldwide, but if I do think that. I would start with recognizing that Dory WW performance is a disappointment, and it kind of is. The only market that really helped Dory was domestic market, I can't remember Dory doing particularly well in any other market, I'm not even talking about Frozen in Japan or Zootopia in China, Dory was also not able to have a well rounded performance like Minions or even Toy Story 3. From 900M to barely over 1 Billion worldwide is not a healthy increase for a hotly anticipated sequel coming 13 years after the original, the global market in 2016 is simply much bigger. So I don't think it's fair to estimate a comparable global increase for Incredibles 2, there's got to be much more room for growth.

 

I would think that Incredibles 2 would come under Dory domestically but not by a huge amount (425 - 450M, there's so much buzz, this is a more wanted sequel, even if Nemo is more popular). I would think it can do significantly better than Dory in China (now more likely with Coco doing well just 6 months before), Korea and other Asian markets, hopefully also significantly better than Dory in Latin America (they seem to be hot on both Pixar and Superhero right now), and since Dory under-performed in a list of European markets, even if Incredibles 2 do about the same in Europe and Japan compared to Dory, the increase it has in other market might propell it to 1B WW. I think it's fairly plausible, just not decided if it's likely yet.

Yeah, DORY's international performance stumped me. I fully realize the movie was most anticipated here in North America but it was just so weird how small it was everywhere else. I figured with the growth of international markets since the 1st movie that it would catch on. 

 

Ditto with ROGUE ONE. I realize it was never going to be as big as the saga films, just like here in NA, but I figured the brand was strong enough everywhere for it to do well over $523.9M. 

 

Last year was just kind of a weird year for overseas box office

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