5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Blankments]

there's too much shit out rn that's on my must-see list and three of them will probably leave on Thurs ugh

 

47 Meters Down

Beatriz at Dinner

The Mummy

Rough Night

Transformers: The Last Knight

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

There is no point in time comp from WW. The next WW update was on Tuesday which was 1M above the current SMH number, which makes it somewhat useless as a current comp. 

 

The only point in time updates are it is about 45% of Guardians 2 and at around 33% of Civil War at roughly same time before release.

So WW on the Tuesday before release was 1m higher than Spider-Man the Friday before release, if I'm reading this correctly?

[YM!]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

So WW on the Tuesday before release was 1m higher than Spider-Man the Friday before release, if I'm reading this correctly?

Yes.

[WrathOfHan]

22 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I overpredicted DM3 despite having one of the smallest predicts on the site, and underpredicted an Edgar Wright film.

 

What a glorious weekend.

Fucking Illumination-hating Pixar fanboy 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

So WW on the Tuesday before release was 1m higher than Spider-Man the Friday before release, if I'm reading this correctly?

 

Yes. Seeing how they have been within 5-10k of each other since the first update, SMH will also most likely reach around that mark on Tuesday.

 

Its almost been freaky tbh. 254k vs 257k, 479k vs 465k, 790k vs 793k at the same points in time.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

That makes total sense. Presales are built by pre-existing fanbases and rush audiences, not the casuals.

No it doesn't. Especially when you take into account that DC films almost always have a higher fan rush than Marvel films. 

[Blankments]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Fucking Illumination-hating Pixar fanboy 

still betting i like DM3 more than C3 soooo

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Yes.

That's a lil better. Based on pace, they should probably be around even by Tuesday then?

[YM!]

Just now, Nova said:

No it doesn't. Especially when you take into account that DC films almost always have a higher fan rush than Marvel films. 

Not to mention I think the NBA finals deflated the OW a bit.

[YM!]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

That's a lil better. Based on pace, they should probably be around even by Tuesday then?

Precisely.

[Cochofles]

 

23 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

No it cant be ruled out yet but I think a more likely total would be around 390m. Next week it faces a direct competition and the few weeks after that there are likely going to be critical as well as box office hits every week. But a total of 390 would still be phenomenal. I dont think anyone expected that. Even i thought it would make 280-290 after its opening week. 

 

I am a huge Wondy fan, and I totally expected a domestic total of a little over 200 million. Heck, I could not believe that some people here were predicting much higher than that. It made me happy that anyone would think that a WW film could do close to 300 in the US, but I was still [very] cautiously optimistic. This overperformance is beyond thrilling, and if it collapsed tomorrow I would be fine with it. It is undoubtedly a well received hit and a pop culture event, which is beyond my wildest expectations. 

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Nova said:

No it doesn't. Especially when you take into account that DC films almost always have a higher fan rush than Marvel films. 

Wonder Woman had one of the best IMs in superhero history and unbelievable legs.It wasn't a rush event and there's no way SMH matches that. The reason that the rush factor appeared so high on the other ones was that reception was middling to bad and it killed legs. 

[grim22]

48 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

1	N	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$75,410,275	-	4,529	-	$16,651	$75,410,275	-	1
2	N	Baby Driver	Sony	$21,000,000	-	3,226	-	$6,510	$30,029,105	$34	1
3	1	Transformers: The Last Knight	Par.	$17,000,000	-62.0%	4,132	+63	$4,114	$102,103,351	$217	2
4	2	Wonder Woman	WB	$16,100,000	-35.4%	3,404	-529	$4,730	$346,644,475	$149	5
5	3	Cars 3	BV	$9,524,000	-60.4%	3,576	-680	$2,663	$120,714,099	-	3
6	N	The House	WB (NL)	$9,000,000	-	3,134	-	$2,872	$9,000,000	-	1
7	22	The Beguiled (2017)	Focus	$3,259,740	+1,321.7%	674	+670	$4,836	$3,579,188	-	2
8	5	The Mummy (2017)	Uni.	$2,785,260	-54.0%	1,760	-1,220	$1,583	$74,502,100	$125	4
9	7	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales	BV	$2,411,000	-55.3%	1,674	-779	$1,440	$165,466,587	$230	6
10	6	All Eyez on Me	LG/S	$1,880,000	-67.6%	1,258	-1,213	$1,494	$42,732,463	-	3
11	18	The Big Sick	LGF	$1,672,200	+296.7%	71	+66	$23,552	$2,228,690	-	2
12	10	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$1,430,000	-52.7%	966	-502	$1,480	$383,273,975	$200	9
13	9	Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie	Fox	$1,225,000	-71.4%	1,452	-876	$844	$69,370,793	-	5
14	11	Beatriz At Dinner	RAtt.	$1,119,380	-36.4%	683	+192	$1,639	$4,773,864	-	4
15	21	The Hero	Orch.	$920,315	+208.9%	401	+320	$2,295	$1,601,662	-	4
16	12	Megan Leavey	BST	$441,376	-63.7%	433	-538	$1,019	$11,773,794	-	4
17	13	The Book of Henry	Focus	$270,545	-71.5%	363	-287	$745	$3,870,452	-	3
18	17	Paris Can Wait	SPC	$269,498	-52.9%	214	-194	$1,259	$4,710,292	-	8
19	20	The Boss Baby	Fox	$230,000	-30.5%	215	-26	$1,070	$173,540,805	-	14
20	16	Baywatch	Par.	$225,000	-69.9%	196	-284	$1,148	$57,247,747	$69	6
21	19	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$175,000	-48.7%	213	-81	$822	$73,656,308	$97	7
22	15	It Comes At Night	A24	$161,790	-79.8%	174	-645	$930	$13,547,321	-	4
23	26	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$139,030	-4.1%	144	-15	$965	$225,429,900	$250	12
24	27	The Exception	A24	$101,904	-20.4%	48	-	$2,123	$393,054	-	5
25	33	Maudie	SPC	$98,581	+11.1%	32	+4	$3,081	$2,930,841	-	7

 

Pretty bad drops this weekend, expected since both Friday and Saturday are depressed a bit and a lot of business is moved to Sunday, Monday and Tuesday instead. Tuesday should be huge due to a combination of 4th of July in the US and Cheap Tuesday in Canada.

[Blankments]

do we have numbers for 47MD or RN?

[a2k]

With WONDR it's important to look at it's weekend drops keeping in mind summer weekdays.

A 40% weekend drop in June/July and a 30% weekend drop in March give a similar weekly drop to a movie.

 

Even if you look at just THE MUMMY's weekend drops it's surprising to find out it will do 2.5x multi (31.7 ow * 2.5 = 79.25 dom. Is 4.75m away after a 2.75m weekend).

[Blaze Heatnix]

Spider Man Homecoming is getting good buzz from good critics and Spidey's part in Civil War.

 

Yeah, it's another reboot, but it has Iron Man and it's set to be part of the MCU.  

 

TASM 2 was a solo Spidey movie with bad reviews, and it still managed to get 91 million for its opening weekend. It made 708 million worldwide.  

 

 

Anything under 100 million opening weekend for Homecoming is a disaster in my view. 110 million will still be disappointing ( Iron Man is in it, it's part of MCU, good reviews ), 120 million will be so so. 130 million should be priority. Homecoming needs to perform much better than TASM 1 and TASM 2. No excuses, it must perform better. Period.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Blaze Heatnix

[Nova]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Wonder Woman had one of the best IMs in superhero history and unbelievable legs.It wasn't a rush event and there's no way SMH matches that. The reason that the rush factor appeared so high on the other ones was that reception was middling to bad and it killed legs. 

Pretty sure WW's presales were roughly 75-80% of where Suicide Squad's were and guess where WW opened at? So take that into account and SMH is also 75-80% of where Suicide Squad was....which had an unbelievable rush factor. 

 

And we arent talking about legs. We are talking about its OW which if you're going to bring up its IM, is very similar to other films in the MCU that were well received. The only the thing WW has done differently is have stellar drops since. But that's not what we are discussing. We are discussing its OW. 

[The Panda]

My gold competition strategy paid off.  I predicted barely under the lowest predict, in hopes everyone would overestimate the weekend and was right. 

[CalifoBoy]

29 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

No it cant be ruled out yet but I think a more likely total would be around 390m. Next week it faces a direct competition and the few weeks after that there are likely going to be critical as well as box office hits every week. But a total of 390 would still be phenomenal. I dont think anyone expected that. Even i thought it would make 280-290 after its opening week. 

 

At this point Wonder Woman is behind Spider Man 1 by only $7 million. I hope it has a nice hold even with tough competition coming in the next few days.

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, Blankments said:

do we have numbers for 47MD or RN?

 

Good catch. They're still not on BOM somehow.