5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[The Panda]

Spidey is going to need to open to 120m to have a good shot at 300m.  Legs would also have to be relatively strong.

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

Just popping in to say that you've got a great username.

 

Oh yes, and I agree with you here as well.  

 

Reported.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

the-numbers.com just got started but looks like we will get tuesday estimates.

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

This numbers there since yesterday

[ZeeSoh]

Deadline is reporting 14m for DM3, 1.67 for The House and 5m for BD for monday which would be down 0.5m from the previous Rth estimate

 

http://deadline.com/2017/07/despicable-me-3-baby-driver-the-house-july-4th-weekend-box-office-independence-day-1202122599/

 

[a2k]

Just now, KeepItU25071906 said:

This numbers there since yesterday

ha i see. deadline should give tuesday guesstimates for top movies in a couple of hours i believe (by noon pst tue).

[kswiston]

10 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Spidey is going to need to open to 120m to have a good shot at 300m.  Legs would also have to be relatively strong.

 

2.5x OW for a well reviewed MCU film releasing in the summer is on the low side of things. The only MCU films under that mark are the big $174M+ May openers and Thor 2. I doubt Spider-man has the same rush factor as Civil War or Age of Ultron (plus it has summer weekdays). 

 

I don't know about $300M total off of a $100M opening, but I would give it even odds of hitting $300M off of $110M OW. 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by kswiston

[YM!]

Remember how we said GV2 would have typical Marvel Sequel legs (2.3x-2.4x) and bought in a 2.66x multiple.

[The Futurist]

This idea that your movie was not a breakout/giant success because you had a weak multiplier from a Giant opening is so wrong I am sorry to annouce.

 

If I were knew to this place and read what BOT members have been saying about Ultron & Civil War for the last two years, I d swear these movies were box office failures and barely broke even.

Edited July 4, 2017 by The Futurist

[Lake]

11 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Deadline is reporting 14m for DM3, 1.67 for The House and 5m for BD for monday which would be down 0.5m from the previous Rth estimate

 

http://deadline.com/2017/07/despicable-me-3-baby-driver-the-house-july-4th-weekend-box-office-independence-day-1202122599/

 

 

I like their $70M number for Apes more than the $55-65M one. 

[a2k]

By summer end animations 2017 looking at 45 + 177 + 174 + 225 + 145 + 70 = 836 combined (smurfs, lego, bb, dm3, cars3, cu)

Last year by summer end it was 107 + 341 + 368 + 486 = 1302 combined (angry birds, zootp, pets, dory)

 

Gap will only get bigger as Moana, Sing, Trolls, Storks did ~745 combined, taking the animation cume to well over 2b dom.

2017 has Coco, Ferdinand and maybe one or two more animations but they will probably add 350 combined for 1.15b cume.

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[The Panda]

17 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Remember how we said GV2 would have typical Marvel Sequel legs (2.3x-2.4x) and bought in a 2.66x multiple.

 

I was predicting around that for Guardians.

 

Spidey is a frontloaded franchise, you also have an Iron Man crossover, and two weekends of strong direct competition.  GA reception is what could push it over a 2.5x.

Edited July 4, 2017 by The Panda

[YM!]

Just now, The Panda said:

 

I was predicting around that for Guardians.

 

Spidey is a frontloaded franchise, you also have an Iron Man crossover, and two weekends of strong direct competition.  GA reception is what could push it over a 2.5x.

Not saying 3x is guaranteed but my audience seemed to love and I think it has a good chance to catch on with the GA especially among teens and families. Thinking 2.5x-3.1x.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Aquaman will probably be the first DCEU release that will go below 100M OW but its current release date is great ,which will help its legs.JL reception will help boost its numbers or counter that.From then on,it's up to the film itself how well it can do.

[a2k]

What are chances of BD legging it to 100?

 

10 more combined Mon and Tue gives 40.

5.5 combined Wed and Thu 45.5.

 

SHM will have an effect but as BD had a Wed od, the 2nd weekend drop could be ok. Thinking 12.5 (ow was 21 after burning some demand) for 58.

 

Then 2x more the weekend will give 58 + 25 = 83 total. 3x more will give 58 + 37.5 = 95.5 total

~90 seems pretty real to me.

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[The Panda]

16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Not saying 3x is guaranteed but my audience seemed to love and I think it has a good chance to catch on with the GA especially among teens and families. Thinking 2.5x-3.1x.

 

The only Comic book sequel to get a 3x multi is TDK, and part of that has to do with the insane spillover and zeitgeist nature of TDK.

 

Just because WW had great legs doesn't mean every well received comic book movie is going to follow suit.

[BeastByTheBay]

I doubt AM will be under 100M OW, especially if they nail the underwater kingdom aspect combined with the visuals and if AM comes out a fan favorite in JL

[Barnack]

40 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

This idea that your movie was not a breakout/giant success because you had a weak multiplier from a Giant opening is so wrong I am sorry to annouce.

 

If I were knew to this place and read what BOT members have been saying about Ultron & Civil War for the last two years, I d swear these movies were box office failures and barely broke even.

 

And using only the multiplier for judging legs is a huge mistake (the absolute size of the legs matter a lot too)

 

Look at the HG franchises for an obvious example:

 

Title		DBO	OW	Ratio	Absolute legs
The Hunger Games		$408,010,692	$152,535,747	2.674853	255,474,945
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire		$424,668,047	$158,074,286	2.686509	266,593,761
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1		$337,135,885	$121,897,634	2.76573	215,238,251
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2		$281,723,902	$102,665,981	2.744082	179,057,921

 

 

Mockingjay part 2 had much worst legs than Catching Fire (that had the best legs of them all by far), the Ratio is misleading and simply "reward" a movie legs for is lack of enthusiasm on the first OW. Dark knight had crazy long legs but not a special multiplier.

 

Give me more money (absolute legs) over any multiplier, always (obviously it is more money).

 

[kswiston]

9 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

The only Comic book sequel to get a 3x multi is TDK, and part of that has to do with the insane spillover and zeitgeist nature of TDK.

 

Just because WW had great legs doesn't mean every well received comic book movie is going to follow suit.

 

I agree that a 3x multi for superhero films of any type is a hard milestone to hit, even if Wonder Woman will end closer to 4x.

 

That said, since 2000, the only July Superhero film to significantly miss 2.5x OW was Catwoman. Even The Wolverine was basically 2.5x OW (2.496x), and the X-Franchise isn't exactly known for its legs. 

[a2k]

2.8-3.2x seems like a fair range for Spidey's multiplier.

 

Calculating Dom using 2.8-3.2x with these OWs:

 

100 : 280-320

105 : 294-336

110 : 308-352

115 : 322-368

120 : 336-384

 

[YM!]

CATFA: 2.7x

Ant Man: 3.1x

GOTG: 3.5x

 

Multiples of MCU movies opening in July/August

Edited July 4, 2017 by YourMother