Weekend Actuals (Page 61): Kingsman 39M | It 29.8M | Ninjago 20.4M | AA 6.3M | mother! 3.3M | Friend Request 2M (lol)

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, a2knet said:

As to IT over 300 dom, it will be only 35 away from 300 after a weekend of 28.7m (265m cume).

 

Just rest of the weekends combined will get it

16 (-44%) + 10 (-37.5%) + 6 (-40%) + 3.5 (-42%) + 2 (-43%) + 1 (-50%) + 1.5 (remaining including dollar bump) = 40m

 

Last Mon-Thu was 37% of the whole week so using that ratio we get 15m more from rest of the weekdays combined if the rest of the weekends are 40m.

 

That's 265 + 40 + 15 = 320

Can't wait! Most exciting BO to follow since WW. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

But a Pixar film that's guaranteed to make much more money is coming out five days later. Which do you think theaters will go for? 

Obviously, BOTH:)...

 

I mean, even if you have 8 screens...NOTHING from October will be held over for the Nov 17 weekend...so then, you've got for Nov 17...

 

JL 2.5

Star 1

Thor 1

Murder on The Orient Express 1

Bad Moms 1

Daddy's Home 1

An extra 1/2 screen for something from Nov 3-10 that sucked...

 

Once Thanksgiving hits, you drop JL to 2 screens, probably share Bad Moms and Daddy's Home (since both will probably underperform), and get rid of the 1/2 screen and give Coco 1.5 screens...

 

And this is on an 8 - 12's and higher will have no problems fitting everything easily...

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But a Pixar film that's guaranteed to make much more money is coming out five days later. Which do you think theaters will go for? 

They take away a lot of showings for The Star. Odds are Coco is having a 4,000 TC though so that could be problematic as stated.

9 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

This has been a terrible year at the box office for animated films with the exception of Boss Baby and DM3.

It's 2011 all over again. However 2018 will be a great rebound. You have 3 films guaranteed over $200M and 2 guaranteed for $300M. HT3 and Spidey won't be slouches either.

Edited September 23, 2017 by YourMother

[Valonqar]

50 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Doing well at the box office isn't the sole reason for an actor being nominated though, there's a lot of factor that go into play anyway. That being said I don't Gyllenhaal will be nominated though.

Main factor is how much they campaign, which is really the only reason why Leo didn't have the Oscar win before The Revenant - he wasn't a campaigner. It depends on whether Jake will or not. But anyway, if he's not competing for the win (upset, runner-up, etc) his position is shaky like anyone's who's automatically labelled an also-run vying for a nom only. That was his status with Nightcrawler and then he missed out despite hitting all important precursors. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Obviously, BOTH:)...

 

I mean, even if you have 8 screens...NOTHING from October will be held over for the Nov 17 weekend...so then, you've got for Nov 17...

 

JL 2.5

Star 1

Thor 1

Murder on The Orient Express 1

Bad Moms 1

Daddy's Home 1

An extra 1/2 screen for something from Nov 3-10 that sucked...

 

Once Thanksgiving hits, you drop JL to 2 screens, probably share Bad Moms and Daddy's Home (since both will probably underperform), and get rid of the 1/2 screen and give Coco 1.5 screens...

 

And this is on an 8 - 12's and higher will have no problems fitting everything easily...

I don't see Coco under 2 screens. I won't be surprised if it got some PLFs like the Lego Movies, DM3, and Cars 3 this year.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Obviously, BOTH:)...

 

I mean, even if you have 8 screens...NOTHING from October will be held over for the Nov 17 weekend...so then, you've got for Nov 17...

 

JL 2.5

Star 1

Thor 1

Murder on The Orient Express 1

Bad Moms 1

Daddy's Home 1

An extra 1/2 screen for something from Nov 3-10 that sucked...

 

Once Thanksgiving hits, you drop JL to 2 screens, probably share Bad Moms and Daddy's Home (since both will probably underperform), and get rid of the 1/2 screen and give Coco 1.5 screens...

 

And this is on an 8 - 12's and higher will have no problems fitting everything easily...

This will probably be a 12 screen plex on the 17th:

 

Justice League x4

Wonder

The Star

Orient Express

Daddy's Home

Roman Israel (assuming it expands the prior week)

Thor

Bad Moms

Something from October

 

The following week:

 

Coco x2

Justice League x2

Molly's Game

Death Wish

Lady Bird

Wonder

Orient Express

Daddy's Home

Thor

The Star/Bad Moms (The Star will probably make zilch at night while Bad Moms might still be making decent business; it's an easy split)

Edited September 23, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[YM!]

I think 2018 may be the first year we have two $400M+ animated domestic grossers.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

This has been a terrible year at the box office for animated films with the exception of Boss Baby and DM3.

Look at the top 6 last year:  486 + 368 + 341 + 270 + 249 + 144 = 1858m (Dory, SLOP, Zootp, Sing, Moana, KFP3....haven't included TJB as an animation)

This year the top 6 look like: 263* + 176 + 175 + 153* + 86* + 73 = 927m (Replace Cap Under with Coco and the cume goes up)

*estimated where DM3, CARS3, EMOJI will end

Edited September 23, 2017 by a2knet

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

I don't see Coco under 2 screens. I won't be surprised if it got some PLFs like the Lego Movies, DM3, and Cars 3 this year.

On a 12, yeah, it gets 2 screens...I was giving an 8's example...they are a little tighter with screens, and they won't want to go all in on that movie unless more hype gets there...

[filmlover]

Coco will definitely get 2 screens or more at all multiplexes. A Disney/Pixar cartoon released on Thanksgiving weekend? Yeah, they'll be eager to give that plenty of bookings for opening weekend.

[YM!]

Just now, filmlover said:

Coco will definitely get 2 screens or more at all multiplexes. A Disney/Pixar cartoon released on Thanksgiving weekend? Yeah, they'll be eager to give that plenty of bookings for opening weekend.

I wonder if Disney if Coco has great reviews and puts in marketing effort, I wonder if they can try to convince IMAX to put Coco in.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, YourMother said:

I wonder if Disney if Coco has great reviews and puts in marketing effort, I wonder if they can try to convince IMAX to put Coco in.

Probably not. Family films make less in IMAX than other films.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, Blipsy said:

Disney released both "Planes" movies in between Cars 2 and Cars 3. I don't think Cars 3 would have done that much better if those spin-offs (or just the second one) hadn't been released, but they certainly couldn't have helped.

thanks...forgot about that.
yeah cars3's damage was done by cars2 more than anything.

 

10 minutes ago, Blipsy said:

 

Anyway, I do think Lego Ninjago will have decent legs. If Lego Ninjago is too "boy-centric", My Little Pony will be far too "girl-centric" to do much damage to it. So, I think it will make about as much money as Storks. I wouldn't be surprised if "Billion Brick Race" gets cancelled at this point, or redone into a direct-to-video movie. 

i don't know how good the legs can be. storks did 3.41x and i think that's the max it can do. that'll take it to around 70 dom. lego bat did "only" 3.32x. i think there is some franchise front-loading and ninjago may not match the 3.4x multi of storks.

[YM!]

With a huge yearlong animated drought, there not being a major animated movie since Coco, and Peter Rabbit, likely the biggest animated movie of Q1 2018, not doing shit (i.e. $100M+), I think Incredibles 2 might be able to do $450M+.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

With a huge yearlong animated drought, there not being a major animated movie since Coco, and Peter Rabbit, likely the biggest animated movie of Q1 2018, not doing shit (i.e. $100M+), I think Incredibles 2 might be able to do $450M+.

I am thinking Fedinand (Dec 21) surprises with 100m dom.

Edited September 23, 2017 by a2knet

[baumer]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

IT can pull off 30 weekend but looking at last weekend's Sat and Sun, it won't be easy

 

9 + 12.6 (+40%) +8.4 (-33%) = 30

Last weekend Sat and Sun were +35% and -41.5%.

 

It lost Imax so Saturday should be over 50% bump.

[Fancyarcher]

25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Main factor is how much they campaign, which is really the only reason why Leo didn't have the Oscar win before The Revenant - he wasn't a campaigner. It depends on whether Jake will or not. But anyway, if he's not competing for the win (upset, runner-up, etc) his position is shaky like anyone's who's automatically labelled an also-run vying for a nom only. That was his status with Nightcrawler and then he missed out despite hitting all important precursors. 

I sure he may do some campaigner, but something tells me he's only mildly interested anyway, so I doubt it'll be enough campaigner to get a nom from.

[the beast]

Projections For Kingsman 2:

 

Sep 22: 42.5M (14M Weekdays, 56.5M Total)

Sep 29: 19.5M (7M Weekdays, 83M Total)

Oct 6: 9.6M (3.5M Weekdays, 96.1M Total)

Oct 13: 5.3M (1.9M Weekdays, 103.2M Total)

Oct 20: 3.1M (1.1M Weekdays, 107.4M Total)

 

Projected Total: $115M (2.705x)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Projections For Ninjago: 

 

Sep 22: 24.5M (4.5M Weekdays, 29M Total)

Sep 29: 15M (2.8M Weekdays, 46.8M Total)

Oct 6: 7.8M (1.5M Weekdays, 55.1M Total)

Oct 13: 5M (0.9M Weekdays, 61M Total)

Oct 20: 3M (0.5M Weekdays, 64.5M Total)

 

Projected Total: $74.5M (3.41x)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Projections For IT:

 

Sep 22: 31.5M (10M Weekdays, 277.8M Total)

Sep 29: 18M (6M Weekdays, 301.8M Total)

Oct 6: 11M (3.7M Weekdays, 316.5M Total)

Oct 13: 6.2M (2.2M Weekdays, 324.9M Total)

Oct 20: 3.6M (1.3M Weekdays, 329.8M Total)

 

Projected Total: $342M (2.77x)

 

 

 

 

[Webslinger]

I honestly expected Kingsman to go a little higher. The weak reviews probably hurt it, but otherwise it seemed like it had all the pieces in place to score a significant jump over its predecessor's opening weekend.

 

That being said, it still fared much, much better than Ninjago. I guess it just didn't connect, even with a dearth of family-oriented competition.

[RobinHood26]

I still don't understand why WB didnt just fucking make Lego Movie 2 and have it open to 90m but instead they thought making spin-off films was  better, whyyyyyyyyyyy!?