filmlover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: How the hell is Octavia Spencer lead in Gifted? They had to reward her some way since Haddish had that Supporting award on lock, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Did ava even have anything out last year? That jay z video? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: Did ava even have anything out last year? That jay z video? exactly what I'm saying how did she entertain people ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 VES Awards: Outstanding Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049 Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 Kong: Skull Island Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes Supporting Visual Effects: Darkest Hour Downsizing Dunkirk mother! Only the Brave The Shape of Water wasn't nominated in ANY categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: VES Awards: Outstanding Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049 Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 Kong: Skull Island Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes Supporting Visual Effects: Darkest Hour Downsizing Dunkirk mother! Only the Brave The Shape of Water wasn't nominated in ANY categories. I knew, I knew, I knew, I KNEW that Only The Brave had exemplary special effects! I'm extremely happy to see it nominated here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The Shape of Water wins PGA. Well, we now know that Three Billboards isn't an undeniable frontrunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: The Shape of Water wins PGA. Well, we now know that Three Billboards isn't an undeniable frontrunner. I don’t think it ever was. I’d now say it’s a four horse race. Still wouldn’t bet on Shape of Water simply because it missed a SAG nom. But if it picks up WGA or BAFTA I think it’s winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Just now, New Year New Panda said: I don’t think it ever was. I’d now say it’s a four horse race. Still wouldn’t bet on Shape of Water simply because it missed a SAG nom. But if it picks up WGA or BAFTA I think it’s winning. I think del Toro is shoo in for Best Director at this point. He's likely taking home DGA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, filmlover said: I think del Toro is shoo in for Best Director at this point. He's likely taking home DGA. I definitely think Del Torro takes Director, but I don’t think Shape of Water wins BP. Your movie needs acting branch support to win, and The Shape of Water missed an ensemble nod that should have been easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 42 minutes ago, filmlover said: The Shape of Water wins PGA. Well, we now know that Three Billboards isn't an undeniable frontrunner. If Get out/Lady Bird wins SAG tomorrow, it will make the race that much more interesting! In any case, the strong correlation between PGA and DGA probably means Del Toro is likely to win DGA. With BFCA, PGA and DGA, TSOW could be a really good shape, if not for that SAG ensemble thing.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: I definitely think Del Torro takes Director, but I don’t think Shape of Water wins BP. Your movie needs acting branch support to win, and The Shape of Water missed an ensemble nod that should have been easy. Definitely will get some acting branch support though, could get to 3 acting nominations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I was hoping for either Get Out or Lady Bird to take this since Shape of Water looked good for DGA and 3B looks like it'll win SAG ensemble plus Rockwell and McDormad. And considering one of those two movies will probably win at the BAFTAs does Lady Bird and Get Out still have a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Joel M said: I was hoping for either Get Out or Lady Bird to take this since Shape of Water looked good for DGA and 3B looks like it'll win SAG ensemble plus Rockwell and McDormad. And considering one of those two movies will probably win at the BAFTAs does Lady Bird and Get Out still have a chance? A slight one. This might be a year where everybody goes for a different winner (fitting, considering how open it is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I've been thinking for a bit SOW might be second behind 3B, but the SAG snub made me think GO was ahead. It's definitely second now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 10 hours ago, NCsoft said: Definitely will get some acting branch support though, could get to 3 acting nominations. Missing the SAG ensemble nod as an ensemble indicates the acting branch prefers Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards and the Big Sick. Means SoW will be 5 or 6 on their preferential ballots which won’t edge it over contenders like Three Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird. I think I’d still place SoW fourth, but give it above a 5% probability of winning it all. Maybe 15-20%, with the other three front runners remaining around 30% likelihood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: I've been thinking for a bit SOW might be second behind 3B, but the SAG snub made me think GO was ahead. It's definitely second now Eh, I think getting a SAG nod trumps a PGA win. There’s no really clear frontrunner. If I had to guess, my order would be 1. Three Billboards - 30% 2. Lady Bird - 25% 3. Get Out - 25% 4. Shape of Water - 20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 If Three Billboards somehow doesn't win SAG Ensemble despite three individual nominations (including that surprise nomination for Harrelson that nobody took seriously until he got nominated there), then it's definitely gonna look very weak as a supposed frontrunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: Missing the SAG ensemble nod as an ensemble indicates the acting branch prefers Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards and the Big Sick. Means SoW will be 5 or 6 on their preferential ballots which won’t edge it over contenders like Three Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird. I think I’d still place SoW fourth, but give it above a 5% probability of winning it all. Maybe 15-20%, with the other three front runners remaining around 30% likelihood. I agree but at the same time, with Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land, and TSOW, it feels as if we're inching closer and closer to finally breaking that SAG ensemble stat. We're somehow constantly ending up with PGA/DGA winner or in the case of LLL, Gravity, potentially TSOW (PGA/DGA double winner) without SAG nomination, it's like a constant tug of war, and eventually, I think something breaks that Stat. PGA is definitely still a big deal I think, since it proves TSOW can handle a preferential ballot, while it is also suspected that Three billboards is kind of divisive ( I didn't like it). Despite not predicting Oscar BP for the last two years, PGA had a perfect track record before then since the preferential ballot era. Also, if Three billboards wins SAG tonight, it goes into the oscars probably with a lone SAG win. If it doesn't win SAG tonight, it probably goes into the Oscars with zero major guild win.... highly problematic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: Eh, I think getting a SAG nod trumps a PGA win. There’s no really clear frontrunner. If I had to guess, my order would be 1. Three Billboards - 30% 2. Lady Bird - 25% 3. Get Out - 25% 4. Shape of Water - 20% I'm thinking: Shape of Water: 35% Three Billboards: 35% Get Out: 20% Lady Bird: 10% The last two's underperformance at BAFTA raises some red flags, but Lady Bird also didn't win anything at BFCA, which has never happened to a BP winner. The only thing going in its favor is preferential voting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, NCsoft said: I agree but at the same time, with Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land, and TSOW, it feels as if we're inching closer and closer to finally breaking that SAG ensemble stat. We're somehow constantly ending up with PGA/DGA winner or in the case of LLL, Gravity, potentially TSOW (PGA/DGA double winner) without SAG nomination, it's like a constant tug of war, and eventually, I think something breaks that Stat. PGA is definitely still a big deal I think, since it proves TSOW can handle a preferential ballot, while it is also suspected that Three billboards is kind of divisive ( I didn't like it). Despite not predicting Oscar BP for the last two years, PGA had a perfect track record before then since the preferential ballot era. Also, if Three billboards wins SAG tonight, it goes into the oscars probably with a lone SAG win. If it doesn't win SAG tonight, it probably goes into the Oscars with zero major guild win.... highly problematic. Except in each of those cases they lost. Id actually say SoW is the least likely to break that stat (along with Revenant) simply because at least LLL sand Gravity weren’t ensemble movies. Missing Best Ensemble as a very ensemble centric movie is a troubling sign for actor branch support. If anything, I think PGA and DGA are slowly becoming less sure sign indicators of a frontrunner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
