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Ensemble:

 

1. The Post

2. Three Billboards

3. The Shape of Water

4. Lady Bird

5. Mudbound

Alt: Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

5. Tom Hanks, The Post
Alt: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep, The Post

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Alt: Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

5. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Alt: Bob Odenkirk, The Post

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Alt: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Edited by WrathOfHan
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On 12/11/2017 at 2:17 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Ensemble:

 

1. The Post

2. Three Billboards

3. The Shape of Water

4. Lady Bird

5. Mudbound

Alt: Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

5. Tom Hanks, The Post
Alt: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep, The Post

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Alt: Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

5. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Alt: Bob Odenkirk, The Post

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Alt: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Popular early releases always receive ensemble SAG nominations. One or two have actually managed to receive ensemble nominations there every year this decade. That lineup is not happening. Call Me By Your Name is not an ensemble movie. The voters I know are not big on it or have not seen it. 

Edited by PenguinHyphy
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14 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Popular early releases always receive ensemble SAG nominations. One or two have received ensemble nominations there every year this decade. That lineup is not happening. Call Me By Your Name is not an ensemble movie. The voters I know are not big on it or have not seen it. 

What early release could get an ensemble nomination? The Big Sick is the only one that comes to mind because Dunkirk and Get Out are not performance driven movies.

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22 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What early release could get an ensemble nomination? The Big Sick is the only one that comes to mind because Dunkirk and Get Out are not performance driven movies.

Oddly enough, I don't think Get Out or Dunkirk getting an ensemble nod is that far-fetched.  Especially since it's turned into the equivalent of SAG's BP nom (it's hard to think of examples of BP winners that missed a SAG ensemble nod).  

 

The only issue are there are a lot of ensemble/performance driven movies this year.  However, even if Get Out and Dunkirk aren't specifically performance driven, they have relatively wide casts of good performances and they're BP favorites.  Neither are shoe-ins at all for a nod, but I wouldn't be surprised if one happens.

 

I also think they have goodbodds because of things like Grand Budapest Hotel, Hidden Figures and Straight Outta Compton (and others) that go ensemble nods in the past.  They weren't big acting players individually, but they still got ensemble nods.

Edited by The Last Panda
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I could definitely see Get Out scoring an Ensemble nomination. There may not be any one hugely baity performance in the movie - even Daniel Kaluuya, the film's best shot at an individual acting nod, is pretty low key - but everyone in the cast is at or near the top of their game. I'm honestly surprised that none of the film's supporting ladies have gained any traction - Betty Gabriel, Catherine Keener, and Allison Williams are all terrific and each have some pretty memorable moments.

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FWIW I think the nominees will be Get Out, Lady Bird, Mudbound, The Post, and Three Billboards. The individual acting nominees will play out as expected, although I'm sure one person will be this year's Emily Blunt and get a random nomination (how much is Jake Gyllenhaal lighting those prayer candles right now lol).

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SAG isn't Netflix-adverse enough to snub Mudbound from Best Ensemble, so that film is probably secured along with Lady Bird, The Post, and Three Billboards.

 

Because I'm not quite sold on Get Out, I decided to brainstorm other films that could get a nomination here. The Shape of Water and I, Tonya wouldn't surprise me. 

 

While they have a much, much smaller chance, films like All The Money in the World, Blade Runner 2049, and Molly's Game would be welcome additions.

 

It'll be interesting to see who gets there for sure.

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