4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I personally will eat crow if TLJ fails to top 700M DOM.

 

But: Everyone here, who is now super confident this has mixed WOM and will maybe even fail to hit a 3 multiplier, will have to eat major crow too when TLJ soars past 700M in February (which i expect).

 

Does everyone agree?

No. Merely last weekend 90% of the forum was saying 3.4+ would be no problem, and now we’re just supposed to accept that 700 and sub 3.2 means WOM was great? Lol.

[Porthos]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

TLJ is now running 175 million domestic behind The Force Awakens.

 

Considering that TLJ has performed worse than TFA every single day, there's no reason to think TLJ is suddenly gonna develop sexy legs and simply beat TFA every single day after Christmas.  I'm sure that's not how the force works, and if I'm wrong, I'll come and say I was wrong.

 

 

Who is expecting it to?  Who was expecting it to do that?

[Porthos]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

No. Merely last weekend 90% of the forum was saying 3.4+ would be no problem, and now we’re just supposed to accept that 700 and sub 3.2 means WOM was great? Lol.

Why is 3.4x out of the question?  Serious question.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, estebanJ said:

IMO, the only way to not call CoCo a USA disappointment is if we just no longer regard Pixar films as blockbuster releases. I'm not ready to concede on that yet. 

That's debatable. It's more than likely gonna match 200M DOM, and that would put it around Ratatouille and close to Wall-E and Brave (all unadjusted). So it is in line with other Pixar movies... yeah, it's a bit of a stretch to discard inflation, but still, numbers don't lie. Fair enough, for its budget, it's not a great DOM result, but again, for a Pixar film with virtually non-existent marketing and very low hype - and the only real precedent for that, or at least the most recent one, being The Good Dinosaur - it is doing far better than its "predecessor".

 

And again, Pixar or not, the expectations were justifiably really low, so the movie is doing far better than everyone thought it was going to. Cars 3 was a Pixar movie too, and look how that went (and it was directly following Finding Dory). For Pixar standards, it might not be a great US result, but for the very low expectations, it is doing much stronger than everyone was prepared to give it credit for.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No. Merely last weekend 90% of the forum was saying 3.4+ would be no problem, and now we’re just supposed to accept that 700 and sub 3.2 means WOM was great? Lol.

 

This post in context to my post makes no sense whatsoever.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Why is 3.4x out of the question?  Serious question.

You think it’s going 750+ when it’s already down to RO numbers? And tomorrow is unlikely to reverse that trend, RO did 31m it’s second Monday. So best of luck with that. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Why is 3.4x out of the question?  Serious question.

I'm not saying it's very likely by the way.  Or even likely at all.  But maaaaaaaaybe we should wait for this weeks box office returns before trying to figure out just where TLJ is headed.

[Wrath]

7 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

TLJ is now running 175 million domestic behind The Force Awakens.

 

Considering that TLJ has performed worse than TFA every single day, there's no reason to think TLJ is suddenly gonna develop sexy legs and simply beat TFA every single day after Christmas.  I'm sure that's not how the force works, and if I'm wrong, I'll come and say I was wrong.

 

 

Except TFA had gotten Christmas Day by this point and TLJ has not.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Wrath

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

You think it’s going 750+ when it’s alrwady down to RO numbers? And tomorrow is unlikely to reverse that trend, RO did 31m it’s second Monday. So best of luck with that. 

R1 did 25.8 on Xmas and then rose on its next day.  Is it completely unreasonable to expect TLJ to rise on Tuesday from its Xmas Day Monday?

[Brainbug]

And @JonathanLB made a very good point regarding WOM with Captain America: Civil War: The reviews were great, the fan reaction to that film outstanding. And then it had shit legs.

 

Why? I like the movie, but it was clear why: It was overly long, the set pieces rather boring (aside from the airport fight) and the whole film required you to have seen several other Marvel films before it. The result: The film behaved like a TV-series finale. Everyone who wanted to see it rushed to see it and then the legs collapsed, because it was incredibly frontloaded.

 

Another example: DH2. A universally loved film, fantastic reception and WOM. It fell 72% on Weekend Two. Because it was frontloaded as fuck.

 

WOM and percentage drops dont always come Hand in Hand. You have to see the bigger picture.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You think it’s going 750+ when it’s alrwady down to RO numbers? And tomorrow is unlikely to reverse that trend, RO did 31m it’s second Monday. So best of luck with that. 

I would also point out that 3.4x is 748, not 750+.  

 

But, no, I did not say it was likely or that I 'thought' it would do it.  What I asked is if it was if it was "out of the question", which isn't a suggestion that I think it will do it at all.

[redfirebird2008]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Why is 3.4x out of the question?  Serious question.

 

It’s not out of the question, just very very difficult. 

[Mojoguy]

Why is 3.4x out of the question? Serious question.

Sequel. Mixed WOM.

[Wrath]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That's debatable. It's more than likely gonna match 200M DOM, and that would put it around Ratatouille and close to Wall-E and Brave (all unadjusted). So it is in line with other Pixar movies... yeah, it's a bit of a stretch to discard inflation, but still, numbers don't lie. Fair enough, for its budget, it's not a great DOM result, but again, for a Pixar film with virtually non-existent marketing and very low hype - and the only real precedent for that, or at least the most recent one, being The Good Dinosaur - it is doing far better than its "predecessor".

 

And again, Pixar or not, the expectations were justifiably really low, so the movie is doing far better than everyone thought it was going to. Cars 3 was a Pixar movie too, and look how that went (and it was directly following Finding Dory). For Pixar standards, it might not be a great US result, but for the very low expectations, it is doing much stronger than everyone was prepared to give it credit for.

I don’t know that its still correct to automatically consider every Pixar release a blockbuster. Inside Out was huge, but other than that its last non-sequel to be a blockbuster was Up and that was 2009. And Cars 3 was pretty disappointing.

[FantasticBeasts]

I am pretty confident that you would have been killed If you had questioned $700m last weekend.

Now it is the optimistic case and people still think this has amazing wom.

Whatever you like guys..

[Porthos]

I think what's really irritating me in all of this is that this really is playing like R1 which would make for a fantastic comparison.  But I can't use R1's legs this week because Xmas moving from Sun to Mon is just throwing everything up in the air.

 

Obvs, I can't do a Mon-Mon comparison.  But I also can't do a Tue/Wed/Thr comparison either. Even Friday is thrown slightly out of whack by the shift in holiday, as I can't look at a Thr-Fri rise.

 

Bah.  It will be what it will be, I suppose.  But it's... annoying that I can't actually use a reasonable precedent thanks to the friggin' calendar.

[Brainbug]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

I am pretty confident that you would have been killed If you had questioned $700m last weekend.

Now it is the optimistic case and people still think this has amazing wom.

Whatever you like guys..

 

Sigh.

 

700M isnt the optimistic case, 750M+ is. We still cant really judge the movies WOM (among the GA, not the fans!) because the grosses are depressed. Now, that all changes tomorrow: If TLJ fails to have amazing weekdays in the next few days, we can assume it has mixed WOM. Now, because of the calendar, its still too early. Btw, people here knew how much Christmas Eve would screw the weekend, so all the hyperbole seems rather irrational.

 

The realistic scenario for TLJ remains to be 670-720M imo.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think what's really irritating me in all of this is that this really is playing like R1 which would make for a fantastic comparison.  But I can't use R1's legs this week because Xmas moving from Sun to Mon is just throwing everything up in the air.

 

Obvs, I can't do a Mon-Mon comparison.  But I also can't do a Tue/Wed/Thr comparison either. Even Friday is thrown slightly out of whack by the shift in holiday, as I can't look at a Thr-Fri rise.

 

Bah.  It will be what it will be, I suppose.  But it's... annoying that I can't actually use a reasonable precedent thanks to the friggin' calendar.

 

You would have to use groups of days lumped together. Helps offset the small calendar difference from day to day. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Sigh.

 

700M isnt the optimistic case, 750M+ is. We still cant really judge the movies WOM (among the GA, not the fans!) because the grosses are depressed. Now, that all changes tomorrow: If TLJ fails to have amazing weekdays in the next few days, we can assume it has mixed WOM. Now, because of the calendar, its still too early. Btw, people here knew how much Christmas Eve would screw the weekend, so all the hyperbole seems rather irrational.

 

The realistic scenario for TLJ remains to be 670-720M imo.

 

People knew this and yet still predicted way over 80 for the 3-day. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

People knew this and yet still predicted way over 80 for the 3-day. 

 

Yes and that irritated me tbh. I remember you giving ranges for its possible 3-day gross using the 2006 calendar and me saying that 70M would be quite good. With actuals, it could get that number, but 68,5M is close enough.