Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Mojoguy]

Sat numbers
http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/

Saturday PM update: Despite several inches of snow across Tennessee forcing a handful of AMC theaters in the Nashville area to close, it’s not enough to slow down tickets sales over this year’s MLK weekend. After a great estimated $12.2M Saturday (+100% over Friday), Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is expected to come in much higher than what we were expecting with $34M in weekend 4. This will put the Dwayne Johnson-Kevin Hart-Jack Black-Karen Gillan adventure comedy at $291M. Once this film clicks past $304.3M —Skyfall‘s domestic mark– it will be the highest-grossing live action title for Sony outside of its Spider-Man franchise pics. The first three Sam Raimi-directed Spideys, and the more recent Marvel Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334.2M) are the Culver City lot’s four-highest grossing movies of all time at the domestic B.O.

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/$12.2M Sat/ 3-day: $27.5M (-26%)/4-day: $34M/Total:$291M/ Wk 4
2. The Post (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M Fri (+1090%) /$7.4M Sat/ 3-day:$18.7M(+1,001%)/4-day: $22.4M/Total: $26.7M/Wk 4
3. The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.5M Fri/$5.1M/3-day: $13.4M /4-day: $15.8M/Wk 1
4. The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3M Fri (-27%) /$5.2M Sat/ 3-day:$12M (-12%)/4-day: $15M/Total: $97.8M/Wk 4
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.7M Fri (-58%)/$5.1M Sat/ 3-day: $11.7M (-50%)/4-day: $14.7M/Total:$595M/ Wk 5
6. Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.4M (-73%) Fri/$5.25M Sat/ 3-day: $12.4M (-58%)/4-day: $14.5M/Total: $50.7M/ Wk 2
7. Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/$4.7M Sat/3-day: $10.45M /4-day: $14.2M/Wk 1
8. Proud Mary(Sony), 2,125 theaters / $3.3M Fri/$4M Sat/ 3-day: $9.7M /4-day: $11.5M/Wk 1
9. Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 2,505 theaters (-953)/ $1.4M Fri (-56%)/$2.5M Sat/3-day: $5.5M(-46%)/4-day: $6.5M/Total: $95.5M/ Wk 4
10. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,693 theaters (-40)/ $1.2M Fri (-32%) /$1.8M Sat/3-day: $4.5M(-25%)/4-day:$5.7M Total: $37M/ Wk 8

Edited January 14, 2018 by Mojoguy

[MaxAggressor]

Deadline's Saturday figure & revised weekend estimate http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/

 

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/$12.2M Sat/ 3-day: $27.5M (-26%)/4-day: $34M/Total:$291M/ Wk 4
2. The Post  (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M  Fri (+1090%) /$7.4M Sat/ 3-day:$18.7M(+1,001%)/4-day: $22.4M/Total: $26.7M/Wk 4
3. The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.5M Fri/$5.1M/3-day: $13.4M /4-day: $15.8M/Wk 1
4. The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3M Fri (-27%) /$5.2M Sat/ 3-day:$12M (-12%)/4-day: $15M/Total: $97.8M/Wk 4
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.7M  Fri (-58%)/$5.1M Sat/ 3-day: $11.7M (-50%)/4-day: $14.7M/Total:$595M/ Wk 5
6. Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.4M (-73%) Fri/$5.25M Sat/ 3-day: $12.4M (-58%)/4-day: $14.5M/Total: $50.7M/ Wk 2
7. Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/$4.7M Sat/3-day: $10.45M /4-day: $14.2M/Wk 1

[aabattery]

Goddamn Jumanji.

[DAJK]

Thing with Teller is that he's pretty much great in everything he does, even if the movie doesn't catch on at the box office. And, maybe I'm wrong about this, but studios wouldn't mind having talent in their movies as long as they don't have to market the whole thing based off this person's name who doesn't draw crowds. Idk, if I were a studio head dealing with millions of dollars, I wouldn't rely on superstition about whether to put an actor in my movie or not.

 

Teller was in one of the best movies last year Only the Brave, and he was also in the BEST movie of 2014...

[MaxAggressor]

If TLJ has a similar multiplier to that of R1 after the 4 day MLK weekend, it'll finish with 621.46 million. Not sure if it does keep pace with R1 tho as it has trended downward w.r.t R1 after the massive OW. So a sub 620 million final total for TLJ is within the realm of possibilities atm.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Mojoguy]

At this point, Jumanji's next goal is beating Spider-Man: Homecoming.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Mojoguy

[MaxAggressor]

Jumanji will beat TDK to become 7th in the biggest 4th Weekend of all time list  

 

1	Avatar	Fox	$50,306,217	6.7%	3,422	$14,701	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$42,353,785	4.5%	4,134	$10,245	$936,662,225	12/18/15
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$36,686,871	5.9%	3,918	$9,364	$623,357,910	5/4/12
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,242,025	4.5%	3,737	$7,825	$652,270,625	6/12/15
5	Titanic	Par.	$28,716,310	4.8%	2,746	$10,458	$600,788,188	12/19/97
6	Spider-Man	Sony	$28,508,104	7.1%	3,876	$7,355	$403,706,375	5/3/02
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$26,117,030	4.9%	4,025	$6,489	$533,345,358	7/18/08

Edited January 14, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[aabattery]

That's another hold better than NATM for Jumanji.

 

If I have done my math right (which is never a sure thing) and it follows NATM for the rest of its run, it'll end with 395M.

[titanic2187]

even we take $52.8m 5 days opening for Jumanji, the movie still hasn't drop by half at this point of release, and it's been a month.

 

It's time to consider the possibility of $1b WW for Jumanji 

[a2k]

Jumanji behaved like Sing on Sat. Sing was +111.8%/-20.4% on Sat/Sun.

Giving Jumanji a a 22.5% Sun drop,

6.1

12.2 (+100%)

9.45 (-22.5%)

= 27.75 (-25.4%)

 

It's amazing that by Monday Jumanji will be 53m ahead of Sing's cume (238m) and 21m ahead of Sing's dom (270m).

The 5-day opening was 56 Sing vs 51 Jumanji (53 including 1.9 in pre-sales)

Edited January 14, 2018 by a2knet

[JonathanLB]

Yeah I was just going to ask, where does that leave Jumanji finishing?! I mean my god, the thing is a monster. Not just a pleasant holiday surprise, but a legitimate massive blockbuster. I'm very impressed by its run, to say the least. I felt that it would do well, and I really did believe it would at least hit $175M, but now that idea sounds laughable as it'll double that easily. 

 

If it could continue to hold well, which so far it doesn't seem to have any issues doing, you wonder if there's any chance it hits $400M. That... is mind boggling. Not to say it doesn't deserve it, I mean it's extremely fun and funny and entertaining, but if you told me that Jumanji would be a $350M+ blockbuster I would have laughed in your face and assumed you don't know how the box office works. Guess *I'D* be the one who doesn't know how it works! ha ha. 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

At this point, Jumanji's goal is beating Spider-Man: Homecoming.

It's blowing past that. 350 should be a near lock again after that Sat hold. Holding better than Sing this weekend and Sing's 4th weekend multi gets it to 356.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[dxmatrixdt]

Proud Mary should hit 10 at least with that Friday and Saturday. 

TLJ vs Avengers should come down to theater counts. 

Jumanji could make upwards of 10 million in it's sixth weekend against Maze Runner and potentially take away from audience from Maze Runner since that is supposed to be the only release. 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

That's another hold better than NATM for Jumanji.

 

If I have done my math right (which is never a sure thing) and it follows NATM for the rest of its run, it'll end with 395M.

would displace gotg2 on 2017 dom charts.

after all the talk of mcu helping sony's revenue with smh, sony could beat both the mcu films this year.

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Jumanji will beat TDK to become 7th in the biggest 4th Weekend of all time list  

 

1	Avatar	Fox	$50,306,217	6.7%	3,422	$14,701	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$42,353,785	4.5%	4,134	$10,245	$936,662,225	12/18/15
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$36,686,871	5.9%	3,918	$9,364	$623,357,910	5/4/12
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,242,025	4.5%	3,737	$7,825	$652,270,625	6/12/15
5	Titanic	Par.	$28,716,310	4.8%	2,746	$10,458	$600,788,188	12/19/97
6	Spider-Man	Sony	$28,508,104	7.1%	3,876	$7,355	$403,706,375	5/3/02
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$26,117,030	4.9%	4,025	$6,489	$533,345,358	7/18/08

yes, but what about The Dark Knight though?

[MaxAggressor]

7 minutes ago, aabattery said:

That's another hold better than NATM for Jumanji.

 

If I have done my math right (which is never a sure thing) and it follows NATM for the rest of its run, it'll end with 395M.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot !!! It'll become Sony's 2nd biggest movie of all time  

Edited January 14, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Mojoguy]

The next three weekends are VERY dead, and basically zero family competition. 5th weekend has 50 Shades, so that's not really competition either.

Jumanji is going to keep making a ton of money in January until Black Panther arrives in mid February.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

yes, but what about The Dark Knight though?

It opened 120m higher than Jumanji and had strong legs, yet is now getting beaten by J. That's what about. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, MaxAggressor said:

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot !!! It'll become Sony's 2nd biggest movie of all time  

 

I mean, if it keeps holding better (like it has been for this entire run), it's not totally impossible that it'll hop over SM1.

 

Fucking Jumanji as their highest grossing film ever. MADNESS.

[Mojoguy]

It's blowing past that. 350 should be a near lock again after that Sat hold. Holding better than Sing this weekend and Sing's 4th weekend multi gets it to 356.

Haha, I meant NEXT goal. It is blowing past 300 in a few days.