Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Alli]

http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/

 

Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle which has been the leading ticketseller daily for the last 11 out of 12 days is expected to lead the charge with $30M over four-days,

 

Out of the new stuff, it is expected to be a close call between Warner Bros./StudioCanal’s Paddington 2 and Sony/Screen Gems’ Proud Mary which are expected to respectively open to around $22M.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Alli

[titanic2187]

Doesn't look too impressive.....under the reverent or even hidden figure

[Cmasterclay]

Eeeek that's much less than I expected for the Post based on presales/buzz.

[FantasticBeasts]

The Post number is weak af. 

 

[weresweresweres]

Jumanji did 12mln in china, not enough to win with sm:h thor or guardians worldwide.

[Boxofficerules]

Bored now. 

[MrPink]

I think I'm blaming this on @WrathOfHan's controversial predictions

[a2k]

Disappointed at Post's numbers only because of newly heightened expectations (was expecting a Hidden Figures like epic run of 150+ dom).

 

Ignoring the limited run, it could do 23 FSS and 3.5x multi for 81m. Adding to that the limited run gives a dom of around 85m. Hoping the ow is higher than that and it makes a run for 100.

Edited January 12, 2018 by a2knet

[RandomCat]

Theater was dead last night.

[Fancyarcher]

Disappointing midnight numbers for The Post. I do wonder if The Post will have better Friday walk-ups though, because its audience isn't usually the kind to go to the cinemas late at night. Guess will see. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[TwoMisfits]

So Deadline has 4 days of

$22M for Paddington 2 and Proud Mary

$18-$20M for The Post

$15-$16M for The Commuter...

 

I'll take the over on 3 out of 4, I think:)...but this will be a MoviePass (and Atom ticket deals) weekend test to see if anyone gives a darn about what would have all formerly been "watch on Netflix" movies if they can see them for "free" or "incredibly cheaply"...

 

[Fancyarcher]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So Deadline has 4 days of

$22M for Paddington 2 and Proud Mary

$18-$20M for The Post

$15-$16M for The Commuter...

 

I'll take the over on 3 out of 4, I think:)...but this will be a MoviePass (and Atom ticket deals) weekend test to see if anyone gives a darn about what would have all formerly been "watch on Netflix" movies if they can see them for "free" or "incredibly cheaply"...

 

Deadline's numbers are based off studio estimates / tracking right now. They don't have numbers this early out. 

[Valonqar]

Why were people expecting The Post to play like Hidden Figures? HF is a total crowdpleaser while this is not or at least previews aren't. Moreover, it's tanking with awards while facing strong adult competition from awards favorites and Molly's Game. 

[a2k]

49 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Jumanji did 12mln in china, not enough to win with sm:h thor or guardians worldwide.

I think $75 total in China would be a worthy benchmark. Hoping China+Japan combined is around 75+25=100. If it does 100 in those 2 markets combined, has a good shot at 850 ww.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Deadline's numbers are based off studio estimates / tracking right now. They don't have numbers this early out. 

I know - but I think they beat those projections (which are based off final presales:)...

[Fancyarcher]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I know - but I think they beat those projections (which are based off final presales:)...

I think all of the new releases will do better then expected as well.

[Poseidon]

Bridge of Spies did 500k in Previews. Would translate to $23,7m for the Post. 

 

Should go low to mid 20s, nothing wrong with that. 

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Why were people expecting The Post to play like Hidden Figures? HF is a total crowdpleaser while this is not or at least previews aren't. Moreover, it's tanking with awards while facing strong adult competition from awards favorites and Molly's Game. 

This, exactly. The Post has been a surprisingly big non-factor throughout awards season so far, so there was no real urgency for this like there was in year's past like The Revenant (big-budget action flick with Leo that also had Oscar buzz for him) or Hidden Figures (feel-good crowdpleaser). Its grosses are likely gonna end up being closer to Bridge of Spies, which is good, if not exactly earth-shattering.

Edited January 12, 2018 by filmlover

[weresweresweres]

18 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I think $75 total in China would be a worthy benchmark. Hoping China+Japan combined is around 75+25=100. If it does 100 in those 2 markets combined, has a good shot at 850 ww.

 

850 is less than Thor, Guardians or Sm:h Considering on fact that sw8 dropped more than 90% in china in second week, 75mln would be great achievement.  

[Eric Duncan]

BOP Long-Range Forecast:

 

12 Strong: 14/45 (+8%)

Peter Rabbit: 19/78 (-24%)

Black Panther: 120 (+33%)/335 (+22%)

Gringo: 3/7.5

Strangers: Prey at Night: 4/8.5

A Wrinkle in Time: 52/154