Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[dxmatrixdt]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Onl

Everyone? More like one person was obsessed with some non-existent fudging because I guess they couldn't stand the fact that 50 Shades 3 was going to hit 100mil domestically. 

50 Shades 3 had a longer duration of playability than the previous two.  The marketplace was able to hold 50 Shades 3 for almost 8 weeks.  One would assume the third 50 Shades movie would see its theater business upfront.  Perhaps moviepass brings the option for people to go to the movies later.  Greatest Showman looks like it sold out a lot this weekend.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Green245]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It won't be profitable with such a pathetic OS haul, but I don't think you can call it a bomb. That requires the studio lost a lot of money on it, and they won't lose that much on a movie that cost $100m and at least made that back DOM. 

A Wrinkle In Time

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$90,122,756	81.0%
+ Foreign:	$21,162,122	19.0%
= Worldwide:	$111,284,8	78

 

 

It has been reported that the production budget for this movie was more than 100 million dollars. Add the reported 150 million in P&A and there is no way this movie is going to break even during its cinematic run. This movie is a bust. It needed a world wide gross of close to 400 million to break even. At the end of the year, this movie will likely be among the top 5 least profitable big budget movies of 2018.

 

I saw A Wrinkle In Time. I thought it was terrible. I held back criticism of the movie to friends and family because I am not the intended demographic audience. I thought it might appeal to a more appropriate fan base. I was wrong. Its bad movie regardless of audience type.

 

In my opinion, this movie suffers from two issues. First, If you read the book you dislike the movie because its different from the original story and what you imagined when you first read it. Secondly, if you didn't read the book, the movie is confusing, there is no real drama, and the plot and villain are ridiculous.

 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Green245
I had to change 250 million P&A to a more accurate (Per Deadline) 150 million P&A estimate. This mistake was caught by another poster as can be found in the comments that followed.

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? It will make back its budget DOM, so that's always a good thing in terms of not being too big of a money loser, but that OS performance....dear lord is that bleak. Is it even going to open in many more markets? Is it already almost done at 21m?

Issues is Disney early reported budget tend to be massaged down a lot.

 

Many believe the net budget is more in the $120m range:

http://deadline.com/2018/03/a-wrinkle-in-time-black-panther-weekend-box-office-1202324260/?v=8

However, it is because of Disney’s enormous global B.O. track record that they’re able to swing at the fences with this lavish sci-fi fantasy (some believe it’s more in the net $120M range before P&A) of A Wrinkle in Time with a big-name cast including Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Chris Pine, Zach Galifianakis, Mindy Kaling, etc.

 

They spent 85m gross/67m net below the line in California alone after all with shooting made in New Zealand also, with post production made in Canada (Ontario & Québec with Rodeo FX) & England (One of US/MPC) & New Mexico & Georgia & Texas.

 

To give some example of below above the lines ratios:

 

Annie

32.8 above, 44.93 below 

 

5th wave:

15.3m, 37.7m below

 

The Equalizer:

36.5m above, 36.5m below

 

Pixels:

32.4 above, 97.26m below

 

21 Jump street:

25m above, 30m below

 

22 Jump Street:

38.68m above, 45.82 below

 

Considering how many big names were attach to Wrinkle + the adaptation rights of a really big book you need to buy, hard to imagine now having a +30m there, making it's net budget around 97m + out of California expense like Canada/UK SFX and shooting in New Zealand, making that rumored 104m or so net budget on the very low range and what it could be.

 

Has for it's international performance, if they are not cancelled or end up limited like in many market you still have poland, portugal, sweden coming up but I would not expect much if this is not an error it is already out of the 24 ww:

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-announces-official-worldwide-box-office-results-for-weekend-of-april-8-2018-300626064.html

 

Must be an error, if it did 3.1m dbo this weekend it needed only to do 150k intl to get over 3.225m and make the list and it must have considering it did 4.8m last weekend and it opened in many place this weekend, but the fact that it's international performance is not even tracked by comscore is not an encouraging sign at all.

 

So if the real budget is more 120-125 than 100-105, a 100m domestic with a 35-40m intl or something like that with barely be above that, that said those big WW P&A rumored figure was before Disney decided to cancel a lot of wide release in many market I must imagine, probably ended abit smaller than those 130-150m talked figure, maybe closer to 100m

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, Green245 said:

Add the reported 250 million in P&A

I do not think there was a 250m in P&A reported specially with how many market are getting limited release outthere, the world P&A could have been like 100m low now ?

 

That 250m was a rumored for it's production budget + world release. 250m world P&A, not even monster spending world release like Amazing Spider-Man 2 type of world release got to 200m, Wrinkle in Time is not in that class.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Barnack

[Green245]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I do not think there was a 250m in P&A reported specially with how many market are getting limited release outthere, the world P&A could have been like 100m low now ?

 

That 250m was a rumored for it's production budget + world release. 250m world P&A, not even monster spending world release like Amazing Spider-Man 2 type of world release got to 200m, Wrinkle in Time is not in that class.

 

Fair point. I stand corrected. That should have read 150 million and not 250 million. However even if we took millions off of the estimated P&A budget, we are still looking at a huge loss for its cinematic run. There are no realistic budget number estimates for a Wrinkle In Time that gets this movie close to breaking even.

 

Remember this movie currently stands with a worldwide gross of just 111 million.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Green245

[MovieMan89]

26 minutes ago, Green245 said:

A Wrinkle In Time

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$90,122,756	81.0%
+ Foreign:	$21,162,122	19.0%
= Worldwide:	$111,284,8	78

 

 

It has been reported that the production budget for this movie was more than 100 million dollars. Add the reported 250 million in P&A and there is no way this movie is going to break even during its cinematic run. This movie is a bust. It needed a domestic gross of close to 400 million to break even. At the end of the year, this movie will likely be among the top 5 least profitable big budget movies of 2018.

 

[Zakiyyah6]

I find A Wrinkle in Time's crashing and burning overseas to be every bit as fascinating as when it happened to Power Rangers last year. I mean they couldn't even trick people into the theaters opening weekend.

[vc2002]

Man who would've thought that it's a goddamn low budget original horror movie that will save Paramount's ass.

Edited April 8, 2018 by vc2002

[Green245]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ha. Sorry that should have been worldwide gross.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

I find A Wrinkle in Time's crashing and burning overseas to be every bit as fascinating as when it happened to Power Rangers last year. I mean they couldn't even trick people into the theaters opening weekend.

57m is still about twice as much as WiT will end up with OS though...

WiT's OS performance is certainly a disaster for the record books in this day and age of big budget Hollywood movies. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Green245 said:

Ha. Sorry that should have been worldwide gross.

Lol, well that's a little better. Though I don't see why it couldn't break even around the 200 mark WW given 100m from DOM? There's no way that $250m P&A number you pulled is legit. 

[Green245]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I find A Wrinkle in Time's crashing and burning overseas to be every bit as fascinating as when it happened to Power Rangers last year. I mean they couldn't even trick people into the theaters opening weekend.

Question.  The book has an American Author. Is the book popular worldwide? 

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

57m is still about twice as much as WiT will end up with OS though...

WiT's OS performance is certainly a disaster for the record books in this day and age of big budget Hollywood movies. 

Well yes it is worst. It makes Tomorrowland's paltry 119mil gross look amazing. I disagree that only 200mil worldwide would have made AWIT a hit. I think 275-300mil was the goal.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Green245]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, well that's a little better. Though I don't see why it couldn't break even around the 200 mark WW given 100m from DOM? There's no way that $250m P&A number you pulled is legit. 

The proof reading part of my post was absolutely embarrassing. (The 250 was a typo.) 

 

According to Deadline, production and P&A ran 250 million. These figures are just estimates. And are generally underreported. Having an estimate that a worldwide gross of 350-400 million was needed for this movie to be profitable is reasonable. And given that it currently sits at 111 million it clearly has a long way to go. Whether the magic number is 300 million, 350 million or 400 million, its not going to get there. This movie is going to be millions short of breaking even at the end of its cinematic release. 

 

This movie is a major bust, regardless of what budget estimate figures are used.

[Green245]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Well yes it is worst. It makes Tomorrowland's paltry 119mil gross look amazing. I disagree that only 200mil worldwide would have made AWIT a hit. I think 275-300mil was the goal.

 

+1

 

There is absolutely no way this movie is profitable at a 200 million world wide gross. That's not debatable.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Well yes it is worst. It makes Tomorrowland's paltry 119mil gross look amazing. I disagree that only 200mil worldwide would have made AWIT a hit. I think 275-300mil was the goal.

Depends on the split. If it did just 60m DOM, then yeah 200 WW wouldn't have been good enough. Wih 100m DOM though, I don't see why it would have needed more than another 100 OS. 

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Depends on the split. If it did just 60m DOM, then yeah 200 WW wouldn't have been good enough. Wih 100m DOM though, I don't see why it would have needed more than another 100 OS. 

Studio doesn't get all of that 100M though. No way WiT breaks even

[Green245]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Depends on the split. If it did just 60m DOM, then yeah 200 WW wouldn't have been good enough. Wih 100m DOM though, I don't see why it would have needed more than another 100 OS. 

A Wrinkle In Time's Production cost is estimated at 100 million dollars

A Wrinkle In time's P&A cost is estimated at 150 million dollars

That's 250 million dollars in investment before anything else is even calculated.

 

Now it must always be stated that all of these numbers are estimates. However studies have been done showing that usually these estimates  undervalue what is actually spent. For instance the production cost of big budget movies is an average of 12% greater than what is publicly reported. As a general rule, movie production costs more than what is reported. Not less.

 

This movie is not going to turn a profit during its cinematic release. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Green245

[Zakiyyah6]

Maybe when DVD sales saved movies 200mil worldwide would be enough for AWIT. Not today though. It wasn't to BP levels but Disney did push the film fairly decently. It's not like they spent 0 on P&A. 

Edited April 9, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[Celedhring]

Just noticed that Spain is WiT's second largest OS market - bad news in itself since we're very far from being the 2nd largest market of even western Europe - and that's with a pretty mediocre take of €2.5m.

 

Incidentally, the film got dumped with no promotion whatsoever. Only saw a trailer before The Shape of Water (which has been a smash over here) but no billboards, ads, etc... Disney always spends very conservatively over here, though.