Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

TFW you’re going to be spot on with MM and E2’s holds 

I knew I should have gone a little higher on HT3. Oh well

Insane holds for Incredibles and Ant-Man, especially when the former had a decent sized TC loss. Really curious to see when they’ll start dropping sub-20%

8/17 or 8/24 seems like a prime candidate for I2, 8/24 for AM2. I still think 20-25% drops are more likely than 15-20%, though. August has quite a few releases taking up screens even if they're not doing well at the box office. 

 

Incredibles 2 (from a $5.5 million W/E) 

$4.25 million ($590 million)

$3.25 million ($594 million) 

$2.5 million ($598 million) 

$3.25 million/$4.5 million ($603 million)

$1.75 million ($605 million)

$1.25 million ($606 million)

$0.5 million ($607 million)

 

Ant-Man 2 (from a $6.25 million W/E)

$4.75 million ($203 million)

$3.5 million ($209 million)

$2.75 million ($213 million)

$2.25 million/$3.25 million ($217 million)

$1.25 million ($219 million)

$0.75 million ($220 million) 

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

I2 looking at 3.3x multiplier if it gets to low-600s. Dory was 3.6x and TS3 was 3.77x. But Dory's bo was bigger than TS3's and I2's even bigger than Dory's. Being a CBM itself might have added some front-loading to I2.

[a2k]

hoping JW2 does close to 1.2 Friday. Will give it a 4+ weekend, for 40% drop or better.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

wasp and incredibles clearly benefited from double features with cristopher robin. why would their PTAs stay basically flat or increase otherwise.

Eh, nationwide count didn’t really show a significant amount. A 25 million opening wouldn’t give much in terms of double features anyway 

[Krissykins]

Why are Deadline predicting a 2.4x internal multiplier for TSWDM?

 

Should do $13.5m roughly with a $5m Friday, I think. Saved some face. 

[Steele131]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Jake Gittes]

nothing to see here, waiting for Black Panther numbers

[MagnarTheGreat]

35 minutes ago, a2k said:

I2 looking at 3.3x multiplier if it gets to low-600s. Dory was 3.6x and TS3 was 3.77x. But Dory's bo was bigger than TS3's and I2's even bigger than Dory's. Being a CBM itself might have added some front-loading to I2.

Pixar sequel comparison (unadjusted domestic)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Box Office Position
Finding Dory (Jun. 2016)	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	#2 (2016)
Incredibles 2 (Jun. 2018)*	29	3.16	$578.1M	$182.7M	#3 (2018)
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of August 2, 2018   If Incredibles 2 gets to $607M like @mahnamahna posted above then it will hit 90% of its dom. total in 36 days and its multiplier will be 3.32 (other comps).

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

nothing to see here, waiting for Black Panther numbers

Inside sources tells me it made $2 yesterday. Gotta drag it out until the next Disney movie (Nutcracker in 3 months) I guess!

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 4, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 4, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 4, 2018 by sfran43

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

That’s horrible for The Darkest Minds, lower than even Beautiful Creatures. It looked like a derivative movie regardless of when the book was released in comparison to other series, and paid the price for being like 5 years too late for the apocalyptic YA fad.