Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[WittyUsername]

If the first BP adjusts to $840 million today, then moviegoing might as well be considered dead, because even TGM hasn’t gotten anywhere near that. 

[exomassey]

The first Black Panther was really a lightning in a bottle sort of thing. It’s hard to recreate something like that especially when the lead actor has passed away tragically.

 

I think the film will still do well whether a positive or negative reaction. However I’m not expecting the same level of success.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If the first BP adjusts to $840 million today, then moviegoing might as well be considered dead, because even TGM hasn’t gotten anywhere near that. 

Why would TGM not beating BP adjusted mean that moviegoing is dead??

[Eric Prime]

11 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If the first BP adjusts to $840 million today, then moviegoing might as well be considered dead, because even TGM hasn’t gotten anywhere near that. 

It doesn’t? The-Numbers has it at 704M. How can it grow this much in four years?

[dudalb]

9 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If the first BP adjusts to $840 million today, then moviegoing might as well be considered dead, because even TGM hasn’t gotten anywhere near that. 

We might be seeing the biggest permanent drop in movie theater sales since the advent of television in the early 50's.

ANybody who thinks that streming is not hurting theater ticket sales big time is living in La La Land. 

Covid had a lot to do with how quickly streaming gained power, but it would have happened anyway...COvid must made it happen faster.

And from the Trailer, I guess Namor is up to his old 'I am the rightful ruler of the Surface World and hasve come to reclaim my throne" shtick, since that was how he was introduced into the Modern MCU back in 1962 in "The Fantastic Four".

But Namor is tied with the Original Android Human Torch for being the oldest Marvel hero ( or antihero) since he premeiered, along wiht the original Torch way back in Marvel Comics #1 way back in 1939.Yes, the company that was to be Marvel first comic book was called Marvel Comics. It was known as Timely comics through the early 50, a vareity of names through the 50.s and only settled on Marv el comics circa 1962.

[jedijake]

12 minutes ago, exomassey said:

The first Black Panther was really a lightning in a bottle sort of thing. It’s hard to recreate something like that especially when the lead actor has passed away tragically.

 

I think the film will still do well whether a positive or negative reaction. However I’m not expecting the same level of success.

I don't think anyone is going to argue that. I think the question is what will make it look like a disappointment. I like the $500 million as a checkpoint. I'd even go as low as $470 or even $460 million. Although that's getting down there. A drop in the range of JW to JWFK would not be a good look at all. That's why I am using drops for Last Jedi and Age of Ultron baseline expectations. I think those kinds of drops are more than enough to account for the obstacles of BPWF.

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

It doesn’t? The-Numbers has it at 704M. How can it grow this much in four years?

Inflation. 

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Inflation. 

Yeah. I said the Inflation Adjusted box office

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Black-Panther#tab=summary

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Yeah. I said the Inflation Adjusted box office

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Black-Panther#tab=summary

The numbers is wrong (obviously, only an extra .5% in 4 years is nothing). Inflation has been hella high past few years.

Edited October 4, 2022 by JustLurking

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Yeah. I said the Inflation Adjusted box office

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Black-Panther#tab=summary

Pretty sure The Numbers has it wrong, there has been data from AMC (and I think other chains too) showing big jumps in ticket prices in the last four years. 

[Eric Prime]

Well, do you guys have verifiable evidence that proves BP adjusts to 840M? You lot seem confident on this.

[Maggie]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

this was going to make less than the first from the beginning and when Black Panther himself sadly could not appear in the film it shaved off some more money. So this would not be surprising. Definitely not topping TGM

Scott disagrees

 

 

[dudalb]

Just now, Eric the Crocodile said:

Well, do you guys have verifiable evidence that proves BP adjusts to 840M? You lot seem confident on this.

Depends on the formula they use for calculating inflation. There are a number of formulas out there for this.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Well, do you guys have verifiable evidence that proves BP adjusts to 840M? You lot seem confident on this.

Pretty sure I've seen @Wolverpool XXR post some articles that point to an adjustment in that range, if he can dig them up. 

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Well, do you guys have verifiable evidence that proves BP adjusts to 840M? You lot seem confident on this.

 https://www.indiewire.com/2022/10/movie-ticket-price-average-11-dollars-1234765924/

 

This article mentions the increase since 2019 has been 20%+ which matches pretty well with 700->840.

[exomassey]

20 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I don't think anyone is going to argue that. I think the question is what will make it look like a disappointment. I like the $500 million as a checkpoint. I'd even go as low as $470 or even $460 million. Although that's getting down there. A drop in the range of JW to JWFK would not be a good look at all. That's why I am using drops for Last Jedi and Age of Ultron baseline expectations. I think those kinds of drops are more than enough to account for the obstacles of BPWF.

Yeah it’s tough to sort of figure out.

 

Something between 400-450 would be a disappointment but the first one was just a special sort of reaction.

 

It will be an interesting one to follow especially if the reaction to the film is more on the negative side.

[SpiderByte]

Possible reason for presales could be kore people waiting for reviews with Boseman dead. I still think concerns are overstated though.

[WittyUsername]

54 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Why would TGM not beating BP adjusted mean that moviegoing is dead??

Because that movie was billed as an insane box office phenomenon that managed to bring people back to the movies, and is unlikely to be surpassed by any movie this year or next year, except maybe for Avatar 2. Also, I didn’t say TGM needed to beat BP adjusted, but if BP truly adjusts to $840 million, that would mean that TGM hasn’t even come remotely close. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Because that movie was billed as an insane box office phenomenon that managed to bring people back to the movies, and is unlikely to be surpassed by any movie this year or next year, except maybe for Avatar 2. Also, I didn’t say TGM needed to beat BP adjusted, but if BP truly adjusts to $840 million, that would mean that TGM hasn’t even come remotely close. 

It was an insane box office phenomenon. It's below BP adjusted because BP was an insane box office phenomenon as well. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It was an insane box office phenomenon. It's below BP adjusted because BP was an insane box office phenomenon as well. 

Again, I didn’t say it needed to pass BP adjusted. I’m just saying that if ticket prices have truly skyrocketed that much, it makes TGM look significantly less impressive, and yet it’s still apparently the best we can get these days, outside of an ultra-fanservicey movie with three Spider-Men, and maybe the upcoming Avatar sequel, and the latter is going to make much of its money from even more expensive tickets. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by WittyUsername