Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[jedijake]

Ya know, if BPWF didn't have to share/split the premium screens with AWOW over the Christmas holidays, I'd say it would definitely have a good shot to beat BP1 and TGM just by stamina alone. But the screens lost to AWOW will cost it.

 

I would LOVE to see it hit $500 million before the Christmas holidays begin.

 

I'm a fan of having more female leads and really liked all of them in BP1. However, I wonder if for marking sake, it wouldn't be a bad idea to showcase M'Baku more and lots of Namor.

Edited October 5, 2022 by jedijake

[Legion Again]

41 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Again, I didn’t say it needed to pass BP adjusted. I’m just saying that if ticket prices have truly skyrocketed that much, it makes TGM look significantly less impressive, and yet it’s still apparently the best we can get these days, outside of an ultra-fanservicey movie with three Spider-Men, and maybe the upcoming Avatar sequel, and the latter is going to make much of its money from even more expensive tickets. 

Well… yeah. TGM has had a bonkers awesome run, but it wouldn’t even be hitting 600M at 2019 prices. I thought everyone knew this already, it’s been discussed a lot?

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Yeah. I said the Inflation Adjusted box office

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Black-Panther#tab=summary

 

You'd have to be living under a rock for 2 years if you believe that number. 

CPI inflation is +19% since February 2018. AMC average ticket prices were $11.52 in Q2 2022 vs $9.78 in Q1 2018 and if we need an anecdotal metric, I paid $14.99 each for AMC (IMAX) tickets to Avengers: Endgame and $18.49 for the exact same tickets at the same location for BPWF. 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Wolverpool XXR

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

You'd have to be living under a rock for 2 years if you believe that number 🤣

On the one hand… can’t really disagree. Inflation has been like the #1 news story this year or maybe #2 behind Ukraine.  
 

On the other hand… genuinely pernicious to the discourse/perceptions I think that we are now firmly past the pandemic and both main BO number sites have adjusted figures which are 20% off because NATO has declined to resume official updates. A lot of people just reference those, because they used to be reliably updated and accurate! Hopefully 2023 — unless the plan is to literally never release official data again, it’s just going to be a more and more abrupt shock to the displayed numbers the longer they wait to bite the bullet.

[WittyUsername]

25 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Well… yeah. TGM has had a bonkers awesome run, but it wouldn’t even be hitting 600M at 2019 prices. I thought everyone knew this already, it’s been discussed a lot?

It’s been “discussed a lot” by the same three or four people on these forums. Also, if that’s the case, then I’d hardly describe TGM’s run as “bonkers awesome.” That’s like praising a grown adult for beating a 10 year old in a footrace. 
 

Anyway, Wakanda Forever was never going to beat TGM. It’s excessive to predict an OW on par with NWH like you guys have been doing. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Eric S'ennui]

Guys, I'm already busy enough as is. I simply don't pay attention to movie ticket inflation, alright? 🙄

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

It’s been “discussed a lot” by the same three or four people on these forums. Also, if that’s the case, then I’d hardly describe TGM’s run as “bonkers awesome.” That’s like praising a grown adult for beating a 10 year old in a footrace. 

 

I mean, $600M in 2019 dollars is still awesome but yes there is a big inflationary caveat over the movie market that a lot of people seem to not understand. 

Despite the dollar amounts, TGM sold fewer tickets domestically than Incredibles 2.

NWH sold fewer tickets than BP.

MOM sold fewer tickets than Iron Man 2.

Endgame with today's ticket prices would be over $1B DOM. 

 

You get the drift. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Wolverpool XXR

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

It’s been “discussed a lot” by the same three or four people on these forums.

I don’t really see what the amount of unique users has to do with the volume of discussion? A lot of posts=a lot of chances for people to have seen it already, and now it kind of sounds like you had which seems at odds with earlier posts?

 

5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Also, if that’s the case, then I’d hardly describe TGM’s run as “bonkers awesome.” That’s like praising a grown adult for beating a 10 year old in a footrace. 

I dunno man, I think ~590M in 2019 dollars (off an OW around 105M in 2019 dollars) is a truly crazy run for a legacy sequel to an 80s action movie. We just don’t see those kind of legs for blockbusters in this day and age, or even anywhere particularly close!

[WittyUsername]

11 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

 

I mean, $600M in 2019 dollars is still awesome but yes their is a big inflationary caveat over the movie market that a lot of people seem to not understand. 

Despite the dollar amounts, TGM sold fewer tickets domestically than Incredible 2.

NWH sold fewer tickets than BP.

MOM sold fewer tickets than Iron Man 2.

Endgame with today's ticket prices would be over $1B DOM. 

 

You get the drift. 

Less than $600 million in 2019 dollars is great, but it wouldn’t exactly be a record breaking phenomenon. My only point is that if ticket prices have risen to this absurd of a degree, then it’s difficult to even bother getting excited talking about box office numbers anymore, because it just feels like cheating at this point. Same goes with having Thursday night previews that begin at 3 or 2 PM, on top of “early access screenings.” Its just not fun anymore. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Less than $600 million in 2019 dollars is great, but it wouldn’t exactly be a record breaking phenomenon.

I struggle to think of what records 127->715 breaks that 105->590 doesn’t?

 

6 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

My only point is that if ticket prices have risen to this absurd of a degree, then it’s difficult to even bother getting excited talking about box office numbers anymore

If you need 700M+ in 2019 kind of numbers to get excited about box office then:

A) it’ll come around again, it’ll just look like 900M nominal

B ) you weren’t getting excited about bo very frequently before the pandemic either?   
 

It’s not like inflation makes the real performances *worse* — it just cancels out.

[Porthos]

Thread has moved on, but I swear to god, this talking point annoys me, so I'll push back against it once again:

 

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Didn't Solos presales outpace Black Panther? How's that turn out

 

 

No.  No it did not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

====

 

Okay, more exactly, Solo "outpaced" Black Panther  for about the first 24 hours or so.  However 1st 24 hours of pre-sales is ****NOT**** the same as ****ALL**** pre-sales.  Or even one week of pre-sales.

 

If I need to spell this out, one day.  ONE DAY!!!! does not really give much information about how pre-sales went except in exceptional circumstances (like, say, EG blowing the roof off things).

 

What is does say, as lorddemaxus noted, is that SW at the time was more frontloaded on pre-sales than Marvel was at the time.  Hell, even now, even with more of a front-loading on the calendar thanks to increased fan rush for Marvel films, I think it'd be fair to say that SW is still more frontloaded on pre-sales than most Marvel films (not that we'll have a test of the theory for a while).

 

So, yes, technically Solo "outpaced" Black Panther for all of a day.  But IMNSHO that's a classic case of "lies, damned lies, and statistics".

Edited October 5, 2022 by Porthos

[WittyUsername]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

I struggle to think of what records 127->715 breaks that 105->590 doesn’t?

 

If you need 700M+ in 2019 kind of numbers to get excited about box office then:

A) it’ll come around again, it’ll just look like 900M nominal

B ) you weren’t getting excited about bo very frequently before the pandemic either?   
 

It’s not like inflation makes the real performances *worse* — it just cancels out.

I never said that. I’m saying that if inflation is that severe, then that, on top of the  fact that most movies nowadays essentially have one or two extra days counted in their OW gross, means there’s not much of a point in getting excited about this stuff, because it’s so heavily skewed compared to how things were just three years ago. 
 

Once more, the last thing I’ll say is this; WF won’t beat TGM, and since the first one apparently equals $840 million in today’s dollars, that means a massive drop in attendance was always inevitable, which would go to show how much moviegoing has taken a hit. 

[ringedmortality]

The feeling I got watching this latest trailer is the feeling I got watching the marketing material for Eternals. Like "this low-key looks boring." Which makes sense since the last two MCU movies were kind of boring.

[Potiki]

8 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I never said that. I’m saying that if inflation is that severe, then that, on top of the  fact that most movies nowadays essentially have one or two extra days counted in their OW gross, means there’s not much of a point in getting excited about this stuff, because it’s so heavily skewed compared to how things were just three years ago. 
 

Once more, the last thing I’ll say is this; WF won’t beat TGM, and since the first one apparently equals $840 million in today’s dollars, that means a massive drop in attendance was always inevitable, which would go to show how much moviegoing has taken a hit. 

This happens every now and again, there is a major change in society/technology and film attendance declines. COVID/shortening of windows/streaming has had an impact which has been partially offset by raising prices both through inflation and more PLF both in terms of higher % of blockbusters and more movies making use of those formats. 

 

Cinema has always been a changing medium, before TV people used to go to the cinema to see news footage rather than just read (newspapers) or listen (radio) and back then attendance was weekly for a large portion of the population, in 2019 people went on average I think 3 times a year (might be off a little) 

 

If inflation is bothering you just what until you see what Titanic, Star Wars or Gone with the Wind would have made in 2022 numbers, inflation is a fine tool to compare things but doesn't take into account changing consumer habits which for me personally the 2 offset each other for the most part. 

[Eric S'ennui]

Yeah, unless it's a case where it's a sequel to a decades old movie, I don't really consider or think about inflation at all when it comes to how good or bad I feel a movie did. Like it's all still money at the end of the day and attendance has consistently been on the decline for years now. Does it really matter if this movie sold more tickets than that movie?

 

Granted, I'm saying this because I remember all the annoying drama in 2019 where Cameron fans and Marvel fans were arguing about whether Endgame or Avatar was more successful and how inflation helped Endgame, but 3D inflation helped Avatar and blah blah blah. That kind of petty fighting really does turn you off on the whole inflation argument.

[Durden]

 

The date for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Red Carpet Premiere has been moved to October 25! - (originally November 1)

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

Ya know, if BPWF didn't have to share/split the premium screens with AWOW over the Christmas holidays, I'd say it would definitely have a good shot to beat BP1 and TGM just by stamina alone. But the screens lost to AWOW will cost it.

 

I would LOVE to see it hit $500 million before the Christmas holidays begin.

 

I'm a fan of having more female leads and really liked all of them in BP1. However, I wonder if for marking sake, it wouldn't be a bad idea to showcase M'Baku more and lots of Namor.

 

marvel movies dont really make money after 35 days

Itll have zero premium screens by the time avatar comes out, might even lose a decent amount of them to strange world

Edited October 5, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[JustLurking]

Strange World will probably have no/very little premium screens, animation doesn't (usually) sell great on them and theaters are probably smelling that SW isn't exactly coming with much anticipation.

[cmbbox2390]

1 hour ago, Durden said:

 

The date for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Red Carpet Premiere has been moved to October 25! - (originally November 1)

Great news. That’s two weeks before release. If it gets great reviews, which I have no doubt it will, sky is the limit for this film.

[jedijake]

4 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Great news. That’s two weeks before release. If it gets great reviews, which I have no doubt it will, sky is the limit for this film.

Hmmm.....very very early. That exudes confidence, but it also opens the door to issues. Of course, those who attend will be praising it to high heaven. The big question is when will they open up the review embargo?