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WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

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2019 is just around the corner, and with that comes a lot of endings. Not just the end of the decade, but also the finales to a lot of film franchises and stories. While many of these properties will still be alive and well in the 2020s, they won’t be the same after this year.

 

Avengers 4 will end phase 3 of the MCU, concluding the Thanos arc that began all the way back in 2012, and possibly is the last story for many of the franchise’s greatest characters. Star Wars: Episode IX will end the sequel trilogy, concluding the Skywalker saga, as well as the stories of Rey, Finn, Poe, Rose, and Ben. Dark Phoenix will likely be the end of the FOX-Men, Glass will conclude the Unsplittable series, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World will finish Dreamworks’ most critically-acclaimed franchise, John Wick 3 will conclude Lionsgate’s cult series, It: Chapter Two will follow up and finish what the highest-grossing horror movie delivered two years ago, and so on and so forth. Even on television, Game of Thrones, one of the largest epics ever produced for the small screen, will finally end, concluding an epic HBO series almost an entire decade in the making.

 

And of course, the biggest ending of all is the decade that was the 2010s. A decade of political changes from black to orange. A decade of mass-produced smartphone technology, and VR. A decade of Game of Thrones and Stranger Things. A decade of fidget spinners.

 

A decade that saw the MCU become the biggest film franchise of all time. A decade that saw Illumination Entertainment becoming the biggest non-Disney animation house in town. A decade that saw A24 rise. A decade that saw the Weinsteins fall. A decade that saw nostalgia at an all-time high, A decade that saw horror becoming a consistent critical and commercial draw. A decade that saw Disney buying everything. A decade that saw a greater call for more diverse stories and filmmakers. A decade that saw an obscenely high amount of petty and whiny fanboy wars. When 2019 ends, this wild decade for the world and for the box office will finally be over.

 

And thankfully, the studios are all attempting to go out on a high note, by delivering all of their top franchises and delivering one incredible year, at least when it comes to the box office. Disney will have Marvel, Star Wars, Toy Story, Frozen, Dumbo, Aladdin, and Lion King, in addition to potential new hit properties like Artemis Fowl. Warner Bros. will have LEGO, DC, Godzilla, Conjuring, It, and potential hits like The Kitchen and Detective Pikachu.

 

Universal will have Blumhouse, Will Packer, Dreamworks, Illumination, Fast and Furious, and potential hits like Cats. Sony will have Spider-Man and Jumanji, as well as potential hits like Men in Black and Charlie’s Angels. Paramount is still rebuilding and restructuring their franchise plans, but they’re going gung-ho with old properties like Terminator and Dora, as well as new potential hits like Sonic and Wonder Park. And while 20th Century Fox will, unfortunately, become a Disney subsidiary by the middle of the year, they still have X-Men and Blue Sky.

 

Your excitement for these films may vary, but it’s hard to deny that the next year is going to be big, and it’s going to be a wild roller coaster.

 

And a big year like this needs more than just one person to do the job. Many of you may be aware that @WrathOfHan usually does these annual prediction series where he predicts the box office for every single wide release over every single weekend at the very beginning of the year, often with little knowledge. Well, this year is a two-fer. Now both Han and I will take charge and predict every single wide release over every single weekend from January 4 to December 25.

 

What will make this exciting is that we have no idea what our predictions our. We’re two very different people with very different thoughts. In some cases, we might completely disagree on what we predict. But that’s what will make it fun and exciting. It’s going to be a wild few days, and I hope you’re all ready for it.

 

Starting now, WrathofHobbs and Cool...Shaw...258 (I can’t think of a clever pun with my name) are here to go through the new year. Will BOT survive? Only time will tell.

 

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Edited by CoolEric258
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Allow me to kick things off.

 

January 4

Escape Room: Ah yes, the annual first weekend of January horror release. This time, it's from the director of Insidious 4, and features the asshole kid from Love, Simon. The concept is relevant, the trailer's alright, and there will probably be plenty of bored teens looking for a horror fix. This won't overperform like Insidious: The Last Key did last year, but this should do on par with other horror films that opened on this weekend. 13/28 (2.15x)

Edited by CoolEric258
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January 4

 

Escape Room: When I first saw the trailer back in October, I was feeling pretty good about this film’s chances. It has a unique concept with interesting situations on display in the trailer, and early January horror movies tend to do well. However, I’ve become more reserved on the box office prospects of Escape Room. Less than two weeks out, buzz is muted, and it faces competition for teens and young adults with the Christmas holdovers. Legs are bound to be bad with Glass on the horizon as well. Given the 10M budget, it will still make an easy profit, but I don’t see it breaking out like the last Insidious did in 2018. 12/30 (2.5x)

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January 11

A Dog's Way Home: This is one of those movies I can’t put my finger on. This is the first of two adaptations of books written by the same author as A Dog’s Purpose set to come out this year. That 2017 film did pretty solid results, especially considering it was hit by controversy from the infamous TMZ footage. Seeing as production has likely gone a lot smoother in order to avoid stuff like that happening again, it should do better than that film, right?

 

Well, I don’t know. Dog’s Purpose came out a month after only two major family films, Rogue One and Sing. By that point, those movies were just about done with their runs, so Purpose worked in bringing in something new for that audience. A Dog’s Way Home opens three weeks after Mary Poppins, Aquaman and Bumblebee, as well as four weeks after Spider-Verse. Not only will all of these films continue to play into Dog’s weekend, but a lot of family’s wallets have likely been drained from all the holiday releases. Then again, January’s pretty barren with new releases, and despite spoiling the whole movie, the trailer is still effective. I’m gonna be pessimistic with its opening, but it could still very well surprise. Legs are sure to be excellent though. 15/55 (3.67x)

 

Replicas: Oh Entertainment Studios. It’s coming out a week before Glass, so this will die by weekend two, and adults will likely choose Glass or one of the Oscar movies instead of this. Sorry Keanu. At least you have John Wick 3. 3/6 (2x)

 

The Upside: Yet another movie I can't put my finger on. When I got the trailer in front of A Star is Born, there were a lot of laughs and people buzzing about how good it looked. Hart and Cranston also have strong fanbases. But does Hart’s fanbase have interest in a dramedy like this? Hell, with Hart in a recent PR disaster over the Oscars, will people be eager to see a movie starring him? And the film does have mixed reviews, which isn’t going to help it stand out from the other adult dramas with Oscar buzz that will surround it. But with that said, in spite of the mixed reception, this seems like a genuine crowdpleaser, and Hart’s controversy could die down by the time of its release, so this could carve out a good niche. 18/58 (3.2x)

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January 11

 

A Dog’s Way Home: I know this trailer has been pissing off many users here, but fortunately, I have not seen a single bit of footage. There is going to be confusion between this and the sequel to A Dog’s Purposecoming out in May from Universal, but honestly, is it going to matter much? They’re both cute dog movies based on novels from the same author. If anything, A Dog’s Journey needs to be delayed, especially when it faces competition from May movies (but that’s for another writeup). A Dog’s Way Home benefits from a unusually empty January, but the Christmas holdovers will still be drawing audiences in. The Kid Who Would Be King is also a wildcard and appeals more directly at children. Still, this will put up a respectable total and prove the undeniable draw of dogs. 14/50 (3.57x)

 

Replicas: KEANU REEVES. ENTERTAINMENT STUDIOS. A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEAN??? It has been quite a while since the notoriously spotty studio has released a movie. Hostiles put up a decent total but made very little profit due to its budget, and The Hurricane Heist was a flop of disastrous proportions. In the middle, Chappaquiddick put up a respectable total of nearly 20M in not even 1,700 theaters. Entertainment Studios is known for their aggressive marketing in their higher grossing films and their nonexistent campaigns for the smaller films. Right now, Replicas is looking to fall into the latter category. With less than 3 weeks to go until release, trailer views are pretty low across various uploads, and as of this writing, only 32 ads have aired. This is not getting the Hostiles treatment with aggressive advertising; instead, it’s going the Friend Request route. If not for Keanu Reeves, I’d be predicting an even smaller total, but I expect his presence to at least get the film into double digits. 4/10 (2.5x)

 

The Upside:One of the last remaining remnants from the Weinstein clearance sale, this remake of The Intouchables has a bit going for it. For starters, the main stars of the film are all A listers: Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart (potential homophobia aside), and Nicole Kidman. Secondly, reviews for the film are ok but good enough for its target audience (the average rating is currently 6.2 on RT with 11 reviews at 55%). However, STX needs to ramp up marketing over the next two weeks. As of this writing, not even 300 ads have aired. This needs to be over 1k ads by early next week if it wants a chance at having a decent OW. Legs will be fine regardless of the opening thanks to a barren month for new releases. 10/40 (4x)

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58 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Replicas: Oh Entertainment Studios. It’s coming out a week before Glass, so this will die by weekend two, and adults will likely choose Glass or one of the Oscar movies instead of this. Sorry Keanu. At least you have John Wick 3. 3/6 (2x)

 

 

53 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Replicas: KEANU REEVES. ENTERTAINMENT STUDIOS. A MATCH MADE IN HEAVEAN??? It has been quite a while since the notoriously spotty studio has released a movie. Hostiles put up a decent total but made very little profit due to its budget, and The Hurricane Heist was a flop of disastrous proportions. In the middle, Chappaquiddick put up a respectable total of nearly 20M in not even 1,700 theaters. Entertainment Studios is known for their aggressive marketing in their higher grossing films and their nonexistent campaigns for the smaller films. Right now, Replicas is looking to fall into the latter category. With less than 3 weeks to go until release, trailer views are pretty low across various uploads, and as of this writing, only 32 ads have aired. This is not getting the Hostiles treatment with aggressive advertising; instead, it’s going the Friend Request route. If not for Keanu Reeves, I’d be predicting an even smaller total, but I expect his presence to at least get the film into double digits. 4/10 (2.5x)

 

 

Non-believers.  Just you wait.

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January 18

Glass: Alright. Now we're talking. Split was a popular hit, people got excited over the Unbreakable connection at the end, and Blumhouse has been killing it lately at the box office. The trailers have been strong and have garnered a lot of buzz amongst genre fans and the GA. With Aquaman and Bumblebee already being out for a whole month, this is the perfect action tentpole at the right time. Adding in Bruce Willis and Samuel L. Jackson will only further drive interest in the film. It also has a clear schedule in terms of competition until Alita. I know that Han's prediction will be much crazier, but I'm gonna be conservative, and say it won't see that big of a jump from Split. However, it will still have a solid run and be another smash for Shyamagod and Blum. It probably won't reach Get Out's total, but maybe Blumhouse has another trick up its sleeve for this March? ;) 55/70/170 (3.1x, 2.43x)

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January 26

The Kid Who Would Be King: Joe Cornish is a talent. However, the film's marketing makes the movie seem like one of those lame family fantasy flicks from the 2000s. Y'know, the ones trying to capitalize on Harry Potter's success? It doesn't seem like a film that will catch on with kids, especially since Lego will be out two weeks later. 12/38 (3.17x)

 

Serenity: The film got delayed from October to January. Probably for a good reason. The trailer's mediocre, and adults will already be pre-occupied with Oscar contenders than this. Even the all-star cast doesn't seem all that enticing. This will be a blip. 8/25 (3.12x)

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January 18

 

Glass: This weekend’s only wide release is a biggie. Building off the huge success of Split,Shyamalan is continuing the story by bringing in one of his first hits withUnbreakable. Glass already has a lot of goodwill going for it, and online buzz is strong through social media and trailer views. One of the film’s biggest advantages is its 4 quad appeal. Younger audiences loved Split and will show up while older audiences who remember Unbreakable will come out to see how the characters have changed nearly 20 years later. Aquaman and Bumblebee won’t be huge issues in their fifth weekends either. This movie is going to dominate the box office for several weeks regardless of its quality. The only question right now is how high legs can go. I don’t know if it can achieve a 3.5x like Split, but given the lack of competition, I think it’ll go over a 3x. The size of the OW depends how much buzz ramps up over the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t underestimate the mastermind. 75/240 (3.2x)

 

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