WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[MrGlass2]

When Alita beats Us:

 

[Rorschach]

19 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

300M is happening.

More like 300 mil OW

[filmlover]

Yeah, I’m not feeling Alita at all. The fact it’s been delayed so many times after marketing began isn’t an encouraging sign either. Ghost in the Shell numbers sound about right.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, filmlover said:

Yeah, I’m not feeling Alita at all. The fact it’s been delayed so many times after marketing began isn’t an encouraging sign either. Ghost in the Shell numbers sound about right.

 

I mean, I hate to bring it up, but it’s not unprecedented for a release delay to end up being a surprise hit. 

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I mean, I hate to bring it up, but it’s not unprecedented for a release delay to end up being a surprise hit. 

ALPHA kinda, sorta, falls into that category, but yeah.

 

It wasn't a hit. Maybe just surprisingly alright?

Edited December 27, 2018 by JB33

[John Marston]

Alita is an obvious bomb in vein of Jupiter Ascending and Ghost in the Shell 

[JB33]

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar @Crainy Come on guys, where's your feedback??

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I mean, I hate to bring it up, but it’s not unprecedented for a release delay to end up being a surprise hit. 

Of course but they began promoting this last Christmas in preparation for a summer release before that release was delayed to Christmas (only to get pushed to February to make way for...a PG-13 edit of an R-rated movie that came out just seven months prior. Ouch). Biggest problem though is that it just doesn’t look appealing, at least not to anyone who isn’t a part of the target demographic of fans of anime adaptations (which is clearly very niche based on box office history).

[YM!]

Alita seems like a RP1 like situation, I think it’ll relatively (to our expectations at least) breakout Domestic due to the weak market and gross $100M where it makes a decent amount of coin overseas thanks to China, and ends around $450M-$550M WW. 

 

 

It won’t be a megabomb but it won’t be the mega hit the Cameron fans want. That said I can easily see this bombing.

[cookie]

I got the Alita trailer before Bumblebee on Christmas Day and this kid sitting next to me looked confused as hell. The dad mentioned the title out loud and even he sounded confused.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

anyone who isn’t a part of the target demographic of fans of anime adaptations 

My Hero Academia (cause superheroes) or Attack on Titan will likely be the films imo to break that barrier.

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Of course but they began promoting this last Christmas in preparation for a summer release before that release was delayed to Christmas (only to get pushed to February to make way for...a PG-13 edit of an R-rated movie that came out just seven months prior. Ouch). Biggest problem though is that it just doesn’t look appealing, at least not to anyone who isn’t a part of the target demographic of fans of anime adaptations (which is clearly very niche based on box office history).

 

I’m not that target demo and I’m looking forward to it. 

[filmlover]

I will say though that Alita likely fare better February than it would have had it stayed at Christmas, especially after Mortal Engines bombed as miserably as it has.

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Of course but they began promoting this last Christmas in preparation for a summer release before that release was delayed to Christmas (only to get pushed to February to make way for...a PG-13 edit of an R-rated movie that came out just seven months prior. Ouch). Biggest problem though is that it just doesn’t look appealing, at least not to anyone who isn’t a part of the target demographic of fans of anime adaptations (which is clearly very niche based on box office history).

 

They moved it because of the competition, not to clear room for the Deadpool edit.  They probably just put that in because they wouldn't have had a movie in that timeframe otherwise.

[SLAM!]

I actually enjoyed Ghost in the Shell (2017) a lot, so I'm looking forward to Alita and I'm hoping it's the better film. Plus, I'm already reading a lot of manga series and I really don't need to add a long series like Battle Angel Alita to my reading list, so I'd rather just see a nice, concise film that tells the gist of the story and characters.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Slambros

[TomCruiseTop]

4 hours ago, JB33 said:

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar @Crainy Come on guys, where's your feedback??

Not really much more to say on the topic now until the hard numbers roll in. Anything else is just stirring the pot. 

 

I'm just glad we're in touching distance of finally seeing it. Those of us that have waited 20+ years to finally see Alita are going to be happy campers just to see it. 

[IronJimbo]

7 hours ago, JB33 said:

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar @Crainy Come on guys, where's your feedback??

I'm British JB33, just slept for 10 hours straight. Speaking of sleep, can't wait for Jim to put the doubters to sleep once and for all.

 

I saw someone brought up Sanctum as proof Jim's nametag isn't a big deal. You might want to recheck those numbers, the fact that garbage movie made profit just shows the might of his name.

 

It's nothing like GITS... See my Alita over antbro and mrs wasp for that. Alita isn't a niche movie it targets everone. Action/Romance... sound like something else? Try the two highest grossing films of all time.

 

A billie is the floor.

 

The biggest factor here will be that the film is worth seeing, so many average blockbusters lately that anything with a bit of heart will stick out like a sore thumb.

 

I suppose the difference between me and other posters is that I know the quality will be outstanding while it's a variable for people not in the know.

 

You guys will lose for one reason and one reason only. You doubted Jim.

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2018 by IronJimbo

[4815162342]

I'll arrange for the bagpipes to be present in about a month and a half.

[Eric Duncan]

March 1

Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral: This should do solid, mid-range levels for Perry. Part of what made the first Madea Halloween so big was because there was a three-year gap between Madea projects. It's smaller, but with a 17-month or so gap since Boo 2!, that’s a decent amount of time for audiences to be interested in another Madea adventure. It’s also slated to be the last Madea film, so if marketed in that way, there could be kind of a finale factor here. 25/57 (2.28x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 8

Captain Marvel: Okay. Now we’re getting to the big boys. Ever since her brief reveal in Infinity War, this film has been set to be a smash when it comes out. Being the first solo female-led film in the MCU will certainly give it good hype, and while some people aren’t into the trailers, it still managed to get really strong views and many seem to like what they see. The intergalactic setting and visuals help out too. Plus, like Wonder Woman, this seems like it will be an empowering film for a demographic largely ignored in the superhero genre. It might also benefit if the film plays an integral part in the story of Avengers: Endgame. The International Women’s Day release date helps it too. Basically, this has everything going for it. This obviously won’t be as big as Black Panther, but this will still be huge, and expect Brie Larson to at least be in the top 5 March OWs 130/355 (2.7x)