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Does anyone else think Mojo has been underestimating the 'average ticket price' over the past few years?

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I been thinking about for a while now, and I have nothing besides anecdotal first and second hand experiences, and I know it should be taken as nothing more than an educated guess (and not even that in stuff like 3D films from earlier in the decade) but Mojo's stated average ticket price of $9.14 for 2018 just doesn't sit well with me.

 

And hey, if I'm just being irrational and you can prove me wrong please do so.

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You have to remember that ticket prices vary wildly by market. The average price that BOM puts out is the average ticket price as stated by NATO (national association of theater owners) and it is updated quarterly and then annually. It is just that an average. Chances are most films have lower ticket price averages the further into their runs as the move to smaller markets and eventually dollat theaters. 

 

I mean, the average ticket price is 2x my cost to see a film $5 or less if I go to a matinee. I can take my whole family to see a film on a weekend matinee for a $20 and thats a first run theater. Granted we get no specialty films or odd-ball releases and we may wait an extra week for a screen to be free (Christmas was a great example of that.) 

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The one theater we still have is 4.99$ before 12, 5.99$ before 4, and 7.99$ for night showings.

 

It's not *intended* to be first run, but for now it is. Before it was remodeled and bought by some nobody company, it was an AMC and tickets were 2.14$

 

The theater farthest away has tickets for 9.19$, standard showing. IIRC, the AMC and Regal were within about 30 cents of each other in the upper 8.00$ range.

 

That's a lot of variation for a city with only 36k people. Imagine a real city, a real movie market, where prices have to compensate. I don't know how BOM is doing their averages, but if they're averaging out the cost of a market and then putting them all together to find the average in the US, I can see how it wouldn't seem quite right.

Edited by Morieris
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Mojo doesn’t estimate ticket prices at all. They’re provided quarterly by the National Association of Theater Owners, and I assume represent total ticket revenue for the quarter divided by number of tickets sold for the quarter. Annual average ticket price comes straight from NATO as well. It probably seems too low because you live somewhere with a higher than average cost of living index.

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As @Thanos Legion @narniadis said its not estimated by Mojo but they source it from NATO.

But I find wrong is they overestimate admissions and their inflation adjustion is faulty. Inflation adjustion shall be done using ticket price index not simply on basis of (their estimated admissions * ATP) as they do.

 

e.g. Jurassic World did $652,270,625 in 2015, so it's business in 2018 shall be

Gross (Actual)/ ATP of 2015 * ATP of 2018

i.e. $652,270,625/$8.43 * $9.14 = $707,206,822 as compared to $722,509,700 they gave.

 

Similarly Avengers (2012) shall be 715,765,238 not $702,694,300.

 

Their criteria is against those films which have higher ticket than ATP of that year and favours those which have lower ticket price. For adjustion they consider same price for both i.e. ATP of current year but in reality the film which coated higher than ATP in the year it released will cost higher this year as well.

 

 

After I have typed all this, I don't know if I am making sense to you all or not because in my head it's very clear.

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2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

As @Thanos Legion @narniadis said its not estimated by Mojo but they source it from NATO.

But I find wrong is they overestimate admissions and their inflation adjustion is faulty. Inflation adjustion shall be done using ticket price index not simply on basis of (their estimated admissions * ATP) as they do.

 

e.g. Jurassic World did $652,270,625 in 2015, so it's business in 2018 shall be

Gross (Actual)/ ATP of 2015 * ATP of 2018

i.e. $652,270,625/$8.43 * $9.14 = $707,206,822 as compared to $722,509,700 they gave.

 

Similarly Avengers (2012) shall be 715,765,238 not $702,694,300.

 

Their criteria is against those films which have higher ticket than ATP of that year and favours those which have lower ticket price. For adjustion they consider same price for both i.e. ATP of current year but in reality the film which coated higher than ATP in the year it released will cost higher this year as well.

 

 

After I have typed all this, I don't know if I am making sense to you all or not because in my head it's very clear.

So, what’s going on there is that BOM adjusts *to* a year, but *from* each quarter individually. Or at least, that’s what the dailies display, I can’t vouch for whether the dailies adjusted to year N actually add up to the total displayed for year N.    

 

2015 had the following data:  

Q2 price 8.61   

Q3 price 8.25  

Q4 price 8.70  

yearly price 8.43    

 

For the days in and after October, BOM applies the Q4 price for JW and adjusts it down by a ratio of 8.43:8.70.    

 

For the days before October BOM applies the Q3 price for JW and adjusts JW’s gross up by a ratio of 8.43:8.25 — even the portion of the gross in Q2, which is a mistake. 

 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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37 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So, what’s going on there is that BOM adjusts *to* a year, but *from* each quarter individually. Or at least, that’s what the dailies display, I can’t vouch for whether the dailies adjusted to year N actually add up to the total displayed for year N.    

 

2015 had the following data:  

Q2 price 8.61   

Q3 price 8.25  

Q4 price 8.70  

yearly price 8.43    

 

For the days in and after October, BOM applies the Q4 price for JW and adjusts it down by a ratio of 8.43:8.70.    

 

For the days before October BOM applies the Q3 price for JW and adjusts JW’s gross up by a ratio of 8.43:8.25 — even the portion of the gross in Q2, which is a mistake. 

 

In that case they shall adjust the film released in q2 2015 to q2 2018 prices. Adjusting q2 2015 and q3 2015 to same price will favour the q3 one.

 

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

In that case they shall adjust the film released in q2 2015 to q2 2018 prices. Adjusting q2 2015 and q3 2015 to same price will favour the q3 one.

I absolutely agree, but sadly my plans to assume control of BOM are still in their preliminary stages.

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4 minutes ago, peludo said:

What I do not get is why there is not any reliable info about admissions sold in USA

I think there is but not made public like gross. Limited only to top levels of distributors, else where is annual admissions coming up.

 

Also if comScore is tracking admissions in Europe, why won't it in US.

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It's accurate for year or quarter overall, but not for individual films. Also, fyi, quarterly ticket prices only apply from Q4 2009, everything before that is just the yearly average price, probably also based on quarterly, but we just don't know it. 

 

If you're interested in each quarterly price:

 

2009 ???? ???? ???? 7.61

2010 7.95 7.88 7.70 8.01

2011 7.86 8.06 7.94 7.83

2012 7.91 8.12 7.78 8.05

2013 7.94 8.38 7.84 8.35

2014 7.96 8.33 8.08 8.30

2015 8.12 8.61 8.25 8.70

2016 8.58 8.73 8.51 8.79

2017 8.84 8.95 8.93 9.18

2018 9.16 9.38 8.83 ????

 

Edited by lab276
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