Weekend Thread (1/25-1/27): Weekend Estimates: Glass 19M l Upside 12.2M l Aquaman 7.3M l Kid WWB King 7.2M l Spider-Verse: 5.5M l Green Book 5.2M l Serenity 4.8M

[Jake Gittes]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, this is the first Oscars of the entire decade with three genuine blockbusters nominated, and the first with a box office juggernaut. Even though 2010 is still above it for the strongest crop overall on the box office front, and maybe 2012. But this is easily at least third place in most relevant Oscars of the decade, if not first because we have a true box office phenomenon in the category. And at least we have a few other 50-80m films in the mix as well. Nothing will be sub 30m this year either, which is also a first this decade (obviously Roma isn't fair to count).

The Martian, The Revenant and Mad Max in '15.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

 Green book has had a solid box office run but it's really interesting that the upside is doing the mess of numbers that people thought green book would do spot it works reviews and no Oscar buzz.

The Upside will finish with $90-95M while Green Book is headed for $65M. That's not an overly massive discrepancy.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

The Martian, The Revenant and Mad Max in '15.

The Martian was a blockbuster. The other two fall a bit short of that title. 200m has been the floor for a real blockbuster for pretty much the whole decade.

[titanic2187]

38 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Looks like what I said about Green Book being a movie that would open small and WOM it out to 100m before it came out may not end up being so  far off after all. Can probably get to 75-80 now.

Green book is not doing great to me, a studio backed small budget drama is heading to lower gross than The Imitation Game, (both earned A+ Cinemascore)  

 

The idea of big screen is only for VFX/action juggernaut continue to haunt the drama fare in cinema.... drama performed better in last decade.....

[babz06]

Green Book is performing ok/solid. But it's not doing the numbers that studio probably expected, im talking about The Help, Hidden Figures etc. 

As far as the rest of the Oscar best picture nominees, there are more blockbusters than usual which might mean better tv ratings.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Green book is not doing great to me, a studio backed small budget drama is heading to lower gross than The Imitation Game, (both earned A+ Cinemascore)  

 

The idea of big screen is only for VFX/action juggernaut continue to haunt the drama fare in cinema.... drama performed better in last decade.....

A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody both made over $200M and A Quiet Place and Crazy Rich Asians both made well over $150M just this past year. Safe to say non-special effects fare isn't on life support yet.

Edited January 26, 2019 by filmlover

[MovieMan89]

You guys are forgetting that movies like Green Book rarely have great PTA's when they expand to this many theaters. Just look at Imitation Game, which had a similar gross and similar PTA when it got to this many theaters in its 10th weekend. That added another 25m from there with no major Oscar wins. Similar story for Shape of Water, though that one did have the advantage of winning big.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Green Book is performing ok/solid. But it's not doing the numbers that studio probably expected, im talking about The Help, Hidden Figures etc. 

As far as the rest of the Oscar best picture nominees, there are more blockbusters than usual which might mean better tv ratings.

Those movies were obviously exceptions, not the rules. Pretty sure Hidden Figures was originally supposed to be a wide January 2017 release with no awards ambitions until less than two months before opening when Fox realized they had a winner on their hands.

[Curtis1986]

I will admit screen bug should have easily done hidden figures, The Butler, The Help and The Upside numbers. And that regards it is a disappointment at the box office. But I guess Universal will have to settle for Selma figures. But it is true the film didn't have wide appeal like I thought it would.

[boxofficeth]

ВR and ASIB are slowly creeping to outgross Venom and Solo. 

 

S:ITSV is the story of this holiday, ot only outgrossing MPR but potentially hitting 200M.

 

The Upside has outside chance to win next wknd and definitely challenge total gross of Glass to be January's top grosser. 

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, comparing Green Book to The Help or Hidden Figures is an extremely unfair and unrealistic expectation. For starters, both of those movies had huge marketing campaigns. I wouldn't have even known Green Book existed per-release if I didn't pay attention to awards buzz.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody both made over $200M and A Quiet Place and Crazy Rich Asians both made well over $150M. Safe to say non-special effects fare isn't on life support yet.

But last decade, we had meet the focker at 280m, my big fat greek weeding at 241m , the first 2 alvin and chipmunk doing well over 200m and the blind side made 255m! 

Even the independent studio gave us something like Juno and Slumdog millionaire. Indeed 2018 was a better year for drama fare, but only looked good when we compared them to disastrous 2015-2017.

 

In the era of 600m become more and more common for blockbuster film, I don't see the non-VFX fare pick up the pace. The newer generation simply don't appreciate the non-VFX fare on big screen.   

  

[MovieMan89]

ASIB vs BR has turned into quite the box office race. I thought BR was gonna pass it, but now it looks like it may stay behind. Best Actor/Actress at the Oscars will probably determine which one wins at the box office. Unless Gaga/Malek both win or neither win lol.

[Godzilla]

I think Green Book would’ve benefitted a lot if they moved up the release date to August of last year. It wasn’t a busy month it could’ve really broken out and probably would’ve gotten as many nominations. 

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

ASIB vs BR has turned into quite the box office race. I thought BR was gonna pass it, but now it looks like it may stay behind. Best Actor/Actress at the Oscars will probably determine which one wins at the box office. Unless Gaga/Malek both win or neither win lol.

Malek isn't beating Bale, but Gaga could beat Close

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, TMP said:

Malek isn't beating Bale, but Gaga could beat Close

Gaga has no path unless she wins at SAG tomorrow (she won't) or at BAFTA (Colman will win before she does there). She'll win Original Song. This is the year where Close finally cements her legacy as an Oscar winner.

[The Futurist]

Musicals with great music moments like ASIB and BR create a positive loop between the soundtrack and the box office that allow unusual great & long legs.

Musicals with crappy forgettable  music like Poppins get their knees destroyed and don't go very far in life.

Simple really.

[titanic2187]

19 minutes ago, TMP said:

Malek isn't beating Bale, but Gaga could beat Close

Gaga is almost one for best actress race, I believe voter will feel ok if she can walk away with best original song but gleen close?

The overdue factor here of close is too strong for voters to ignore.... 

 

Whereas best actor race, SAG will decide it 

[Curtis1986]

Am I'm crazy for thinking that movies like Bohemian Rhapsody and vice made a great case for why there needs to be a best popular film category at the Academy Awards. I mean black panther had me a superhero film but it actually got rave reviews on the level of most Oscar contenders but there's really no justification for Bohemian Rhapsody in Vice being in the lineup especially in a year where we had a many strong films. Now if Straight Outta Compton would have made it into the best picture a few years ago then I can understand Bohemian Rhapsody a little more but not much.

[DAJK]

Close was good in the Wife, but her performance wasn't as strong as Gaga IMO. Also, Bale and Malek are both easily the two best performances of the year, but I'd much prefer the award go to Malek as an Oscar would really cement his legacy, whereas Bale's already got some.