Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[WittyUsername]

18 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

We have no idea how the GA will react to two Batman’s simultaneously. That could backfire in a major way 

That’s what I’ve been saying since Gunn first announced that Batman would be a major part of the DCU. There’s no way of knowing if BatB will go over well, especially with Andy Muschietti directing it. 

[Arlborn]

18 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

AM2 getting to $200M DOM at least thanks to holidays. Overseas is a big question mark though since they rejected all DCEU films this year.

Brazil showed up* for Blue Beetle at least.

 

 

But honestly, for some reason I kinda expect audiences in most places to see Aquaman 2 as mostly its own thing and deciding to watch it depending a lot on how they felt about the first one (plus WOM obviously)

 

 

*compared to recent DCU stuff and relative to other markets, that is. It did more than the Flash here iirc

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Arlborn

[HummingLemon]

@Relevation

 

Ok I can confidently say your <$400M prediction is 100% not happening. There's no way this drops 66%+ from the first one. I know The Flash imploded to $268m WW but this is a far, far safer bet.

[TheDude391]

IF this makes bank and gets a decent response, would it not shake a lot of faith in the DC execs? The movies the producers thought would do well flopped and audiences rejected while the ones they dumped...end up a hit with audiences liking it.

[ZeroHour]

They’re really not dumping this. They gave it the best release date on the calendar. 

[Relevation]

23 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

Ok I can confidently say your <$400M prediction is 100% not happening. There's no way this drops 66%+ from the first one. I know The Flash imploded to $268m WW but this is a far, far safer bet.

Uh

OK

 

It’s just my opinion lol, I don’t have a high degree of investment as to whether you agree with it or not 

[The GOAT]

41 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

Ok I can confidently say your <$400M prediction is 100% not happening. There's no way this drops 66%+ from the first one. I know The Flash imploded to $268m WW but this is a far, far safer bet.

Shazam 2 dropped 64%

[HummingLemon]

10 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Shazam 2 dropped 64%

I'm confident this won't drop as much

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, TheDude391 said:

IF this makes bank and gets a decent response, would it not shake a lot of faith in the DC execs? The movies the producers thought would do well flopped and audiences rejected while the ones they dumped...end up a hit with audiences liking it.

This being a hit wouldn't be a shock. The first Aquaman is still the biggest DC superhero movie of all time WW. This also has the pre-Christmas release date this year.

 

Shirtless Momoa is going to keep bringing in the female audience. Now you will also have shirtless Patrick Wilson too. They know their audience.

[HummingLemon]

It's still insane how Aquaman made $1.148 billion but then *none* of their films made $400m WW since (of that, you have one profitable film, one borderline flop, two pandemic excused bombs, and then four straight up bombs).

Edited September 26, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Arlborn]

33 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

It's still insane how Aquaman made $1.148 billion but then *none* of their films made $400m WW since (of that, you have one profitable film, one borderline flop, two pandemic excused bombs, and then four straight up bombs).

This is what gives me some confidence that this won’t drop as badly as some think. I think the vibes of the first movie really clicked with a casual audience that should also be here for this one if the vibes are the same 

[HummingLemon]

23 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This is what gives me some confidence that this won’t drop as badly as some think. I think the vibes of the first movie really clicked with a casual audience that should also be here for this one if the vibes are the same 

I could see it, Aquaman 2 doesn't have the things that held the other post-Aquaman movies back

 

Shazam 1 - Unknown character, small scale, kinda cheap

Birds of Prey - R-rated, meh marketing, cheap, D-list characters

WW84 & TSS - COVID + HBO Max

Black Adam - New character, did quite decent actually

Shazam 2 & Blue Beetle - Post pandemic, nobody cares about these characters

Flash - Reddit fanfic movie made specifically for DC fans (+ toxic WOM)

 

Aquaman 2 doesn't have

1. A character nobody cares about

2. A small budget/cheap in scale

 

. . .and it also has a good release date

 

DCEU is buried but I can see it doing well based on its own terms 

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

Ok I can confidently say your <$400M prediction is 100% not happening. There's no way this drops 66%+ from the first one. I know The Flash imploded to $268m WW but this is a far, far safer bet.

I would say sub $400M is a lot more likely than $1B+

[HummingLemon]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would say sub $400M is a lot more likely than $1B+

Well, I agree. Not because $400M is likely but because $1 billion is so unbelievably unlikely. Also, when pre-sales start, what do you expect this to be tracking for for the 5 day weekend? I remember you said Marvels would track like John Wick 4/The Little Mermaid or smthn

[MovieMan89]

I mean honestly, if this movie isn’t a box office hit, this is truly an unprecedented flop streak for a major movie franchise. Than again, it’s already unprecedented without this… 

[HummingLemon]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean honestly, if this movie isn’t a box office hit, this is truly an unprecedented flop streak for a major movie franchise. Than again, it’s already unprecedented without this… 

The pandemic/HBO Max ones don't count so the DCEU is on 5 or 4 flops in a row, depending on Birds of Prey 

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

Well, I agree. Not because $400M is likely but because $1 billion is so unbelievably unlikely. Also, when pre-sales start, what do you expect this to be tracking for for the 5 day weekend? 

Lower baseline than Flash, but a stronger finish 

 

18 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

 I remember you said Marvels would track like John Wick 4/The Little Mermaid or smthn

Not necessarily that it will track like TLM or John Wick, but that OW will be in that range. I think its going to track like any CBM but from a lower baseline 

[dudalb]

On 9/25/2023 at 3:33 PM, ZeroHour said:

They’re really not dumping this. They gave it the best release date on the calendar. 

And they will spend plenty on marketing. They simply have too big an investment in this film to dump it. People who think WB is dumping this film don';t know what the hell they are talking about . The more expensive a film is, the less likely a studio is going to write it off.

That being said, I think this could go  either way. The arguments between the "Audience hate the DCEU" and the "First Aquaman was huge hit " will go on until opening day.

Of course, the big variable is Aqua One openend when the CBM boom was it's height, now CBM fatigue has definently set in. yes, the right CBM can be a blockbuster...I give you Spidey NWH and Batman, but look at all the ones that have flopped or underperformes..even the MCU sucesses like Dr Strange 2 did not do what they would have done if the fatigue factor did not exist.

Question is who much will the fatigue factor effect Aqua's 2 box office? We won't know until  December.

But it doing a billion dollars is very unlikely. WIth that you  have the  fact that theater audiences have just plain shrunk since 2019 to deal with. If Warners can got a decent profit off their investment they will be happy.

[dudalb]

20 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

The pandemic/HBO Max ones don't count so the DCEU is on 5 or 4 flops in a row, depending on Birds of Prey 

 Only real sucess DC has had in a while was 'Batman". Of course the argument in favor of  Aqua 2 is how big a hit the first one was, but you have a lot of factors in play here other then the DCEU doing poorly.

[Torontofan]

Yeah i dont bye this flopping really even if it get to 600-700 million WW that is fine.