Weathering with You | Makoto Shinkai | GKIDS | January 17, 2020 | Nationwide 4DX this weekend Jan 31

[cannastop]

https://www.slashfilm.com/weathering-with-you-us-release-gkds-makoto-shinkai/

Edited January 28, 2020 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Maybe Shinkai will get an Oscar nod now, seeing that GKIDS knows how to campaign for one.

[cannastop]

 

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

God I hope this gets an Australian release even if its all the way in November like Your Name.

[cannastop]

I dunno, this seems like a retread of Your Name, from the trailer.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

God I hope this gets an Australian release even if its all the way in November like Your Name.

Lol, GKIDS isn't releasing it until 2020 in the USA, outside of an Oscar qualifying run in 2019.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

 

[cannastop]

Corpse:

 

Quote

Here is a fairly wide-range list of projections:

¥10 billion+ potential (~$100 million+):
Weathering With You

¥5-¥10 billion potential (~$50-$100 million):
Toy Story 4

¥3-¥5 billion potential (~$30-$50 million):
Aladdin 
Men in Black International
Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Secret Life of Pets 2

¥2-¥3 billion potential (~$20-$30 million):
The Great War of Archimedes 

¥1 billion potential (~$10 million):
Almost a Miracle
Bento Harassment
Diner 
If I Could Ride a Wave With You
Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! 
The Fable
Tokyo Ghoul "S"

Less than ¥1 billion (Sub-$10 million):
Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Vanilla of the Land of Ice Cream
Children of the Sea
Cold Pursuit
Don't Cry, Mr. Ogre
Final Fantasy XIV: Dad of Light
Free! Road to the World - Dream
Hot Gimmick: Girl Meets Boy
Sea of Revival
The Journalist
Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom 
X-Men: Dark Phoenix

A few notes:
Weathering With You probably has the widest range since it could "only" earn around ¥10 billion, but it could also easily do ¥15 billion+. It's a uniquely difficult film to predict given how massive Shinkai's last film was.
Toy Story 4 is in a wide range. I expect it to do much better than ¥5 billion but I doubt it matches the success of its predecessor given how Pixar sequels have all declined in the market, so I wouldn't expect a total too close to ¥10 billion.
Aladdin is still a dark horse to me. There are both good and bad signs for it, equally, so I don't feel confident throwing out any specific number for it.

 

[lorddemaxus]

When is the soundtrack for this releasing? The RADWIMPS soundtrack for Kimi No Na Wa was amazing and I can't wait to listen to this film's soundtrack.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

When is the soundtrack for this releasing? The RADWIMPS soundtrack for Kimi No Na Wa was amazing and I can't wait to listen to this film's soundtrack.

Your Name's soundtrack was released a couple days before the movie was, so I'm guessing it's the name case here. Around July 19th.

[titanic2187]

I feel like the movie marketing was not international audience-friendly. 

 

Anime lovers are all over the world, yet there aren't any english sub in the official trailer, not even in the title. 

Hope when GKIDS can have more open approach to the marketing and oscar campaign to this film. 

 

Your Name, handled by Funamination, did 5m in NA, more than any other GKIDS oscar nominated anime. If this goes right, I would say another 5m is a locked.

 

Anyway, any early-screening so that we can have a rough look of how this will be received?   

[RealLyre]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I feel like the movie marketing was not international audience-friendly. 

 

Anime lovers are all over the world, yet there aren't any english sub in the official trailer, not even in the title. 

Hope when GKIDS can have more open approach to the marketing and oscar campaign to this film. 

 

Your Name, handled by Funamination, did 5m in NA, more than any other GKIDS oscar nominated anime. If this goes right, I would say another 5m is a locked.

 

Anyway, any early-screening so that we can have a rough look of how this will be received?   

the movie doesn't release in the US until early 2020 ( with a limited late 2019 release for awards) so it's too early for GKIDs to release a english sub/dub trailer right now. 

 

and I'm guessing the July/August release dates for this are mostly in Asian countries. 

[Avatree]

Your Name came here like a year after its japanese release but well worth the wait. Liking the radwimps in that trailer. I'm not an anime fan but i loved your name so i'll watch this if it gets a release near me.

[cannastop]

Having a big day in Japan right now. Probably going to be in at least the top 10 biggest opening Saturdays in Japan since 2015.

[cannastop]

On 6/5/2019 at 10:27 AM, titanic2187 said:

Your Name, handled by Funamination, did 5m in NA, more than any other GKIDS oscar nominated anime. If this goes right, I would say another 5m is a locked.

Very interesting. Funimation was more successful financially, but GKIDS can get Oscar nominations.

[KP1025]

Detailed review up on Kotaku (some spoilers).

 

https://kotaku.com/weathering-with-you-is-a-good-but-flawed-follow-up-to-1836520213

[cannastop]

Another issue is that I have no idea if people are going to like this movie enough to give it an Oscar nod.

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2242413#p2242413

My estimates for Makoto Shinkai's Weathering With You:


(C)2019「天気の子」製作委員会

Opening Weekend: ¥1.115 billion ($10.4 million) / 820,000 admissions.
3-Day Total: ¥1.540 billion ($14.3 million) / 1,125,000 admissions.

This opening is remarkably the fourth film to debut above ¥1 billion this year. And it's about 20% higher than the opening weekend of Shinkai's previous film Your Name.. 

Reviews and audience scores are strong (averaging 4/5), so we can probably expect a pretty long run. I doubt its legs come anywhere near those of Your Name.'s, but it will probably settle somewhere between 10-15 (10 isn't uncommon this time of year, and 14/15 is a common range for a well-received film like this). I know that's a wide range, but accurately pin-pointing multipliers at this stage for a film like this isn't easy. That would put its total in a wide range of ¥11.5-¥17.0 billion ($105-160 million), but look for its range total to become more clear in the coming weeks.

I would say it's the slight favorite to win the year right now since it has a higher ceiling than Aladdin or Toy Story 4, with both of them being on track for around ¥12 billion ($110 million), so it could be a three-way battle in the end if Weathering With You falls on the low-end of its expected multiplier.

[RealLyre]

23 hours ago, cannastop said:

Another issue is that I have no idea if people are going to like this movie enough to give it an Oscar nod.

Mirai was nominated last year despite it not being that great (I liked it but there were better anime movies last year). OS audiences also liked it more the Japanese (7/10 vs 6/10) and WWY is better recieved so far so I don't see any reason why Gkids wouldn't be able to secure a nomination. 

 

 

the best animated category can probably look something like:

Toy Story 4
Lion King
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon 3
Weathering With You

 

funny how they're all sequels or a remake except for one

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Lion King

Disney isn't going to submit The Lion King 2019 as an animated movie.

 

And even if they did, it might not get a nomination.

 

Kind of skeptical or How To Train Your Dragon 3 and Frozen 2's chances as well.

Edited July 21, 2019 by cannastop