Barnack Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Krissykins said: These guessed “break even” targets annoy me. Strange they always seem to be floated out for Sony too. But I didn’t hear a breakeven point for any of the other big films this year. Interesting. Lot of big films this year had either no a chance to reach it or were obviously going to be well over too. For movie that opened on something that looked could go either way on the line, like say Men In Black, they did mention it: https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-black-international-shaft-secret-life-of-pets-2-weekend-box-office-1202632705/ 29 minutes ago, Krissykins said: Hmm, you do know the film doesn’t just cease to make money when it stops playing it cinemas? Films can make $100’s of millions worldwide from ancillary market. A movie like this cannot possibly get close to make money without the ancillary market like said above, imagine even a dream scenario of an 500M non China run, 160m/340m: Say around 220m in rental (53% domestic retention, average 40% oversea) 100-110m WW P&A (and it will get a 7-14m award season spending, but that far away it could be in the home ent spending line, but it is usually on that one) 90-95m Budget Overhead: 9M Participation Bonus: 40 to 65m That between 239 and 279m in spending. Edited July 30, 2019 by Barnack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: That Django had 3 days of $33m before a $30m w/e makes the $30m more impressive - not less. It's opening over Basterds is 41-38. A 7.8% jump after a decade. So no compared to the previous openings it's not a "smash". yes that was the point of the writer saying that it is not it's best OW at all, easily below those 2, but those 2 were quite the smash hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, sfran43 said: Was anyone else getting a 504 error over the last hour, or was it just me? No you are not alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Krissykins Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said: There’s no revisionism here, the movie is doing exactly what it’s predicted to be, no more, no less (generally speaking). If you keep throwing “predictions” from a year ago to sustain your point that the movie is a disappointment it’s your problem, your revisionism. Actually if people change their predictions from a year ago when the film gets closer to release, that’s their “revision” of their own predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 57 minutes ago, narniadis said: It will be much closer to Baumers 400m than to the 700m mark thats for sure. I mean... no, though. It’ll probably be closer to 700, but if it’s closer to 400M it’ll be by like a dozen mil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, sfran43 said: And so ends the 500k+ streak. 66 days, ties BP for 4th place among 2010s films. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagnarTheGreat Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Movie Teaser Release Teaser Views (24 hours) Release Global Box Office T Views to Global BO Multiplier Domestic Box Office Iron Man 3 Oct. 2012 20.0M May 2013 $1.215B 60.74 $409.0M Avengers: Age of Ultron Oct. 2014 34.0M May 2015 $1.405B 41.34 $459.0M Star Wars: The Force Awakens Nov. 2014 <55.0M Dec. 2015 $2.068B >37.60 $936.7M Star Wars: The Force Awakens Apr. 2015 88.0M Dec. 2015 $2.068B 23.50 $936.7M Captain America: Civil War Nov. 2015 61.0M May 2016 $1.153B 18.91 $408.1M Beauty and the Beast May 2016 91.8M Mar. 2017 $1.264B 13.76 $504.0M Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Dec. 2016 81.0M May 2017 $0.864B 10.66 $389.8M The Fate of the Furious Dec. 2016 139.0M Apr. 2017 $1.236B 8.89 $226.0M Spider-Man: Homecoming Dec. 2016 116.0M Jul. 2017 $0.880B 7.59 $334.2M It Mar. 2017 197.0M Sep. 2017 $0.700B 3.56 $327.5M Thor: Ragnarok Apr. 2017 136.0M Nov. 2017 $0.854B 6.28 $315.1M Star Wars: The Last Jedi Apr. 2017 91.0M Dec. 2017 $1.333B 14.64 $620.2M Black Panther Jun. 2017 89.0M Feb. 2018 $1.347B 15.13 $700.1M Avengers: Infinity War Nov. 2017 238.0M Apr. 2018 $2.048B 8.61 $678.8M Incredibles 2 Nov. 2017 113.6M Jun. 2018 $1.243B 10.94 $608.6M Captain Marvel Sep. 2018 109.0M Mar. 2019 $1.128B 10.35 $426.8M Avengers: Endgame* Dec. 2018 289.0M Apr. 2019 $2.793B 9.67 $856.6M The Lion King* Nov. 2018 224.6M Jul. 2019 $0.990B 4.41 $351.9M Spider-Man: Far From Home* Jan. 2019 130.0M Jul. 2019 $1.037B 7.98 $344.7M Frozen 2 Feb. 2019 116.4M Nov. 2019 TBD TBD TBD Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Apr. 2019 111.0M Dec. 2019 TBD TBD TBD Mulan Jul. 2019 175.1M Mar. 2020 TBD TBD TBD * box office results not final / current July 28, 2019 I think more was expected out of TLK based on teaser views, but to be fair it had quite a drop compared to Endgame for example on the trailer views later on. Movie Teaser/ Trailer Release Views (24 hours) Release Global Box Office T Views to Global BO Multiplier Domestic Box Office Avengers: Endgame* (teaser) Dec. 2018 289.0M Apr. 2019 $2.793B 9.67 $856.6M Avengers: Endgame* (trailer) Mar. 2019 268.0M Apr. 2019 $2.793B 10.42 $856.6M The Lion King* (teaser) Nov. 2018 224.6M Jul. 2019 $0.990B 4.41 $351.9M The Lion King* (trailer) Apr. 2019 174.0M Jul. 2019 $0.990B 5.69 $351.9M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: Ugh, this revisionist history is irritating. Went through pages 50-100 of TLK thread just to see if I really am losing my mind here and the predictions were all in my head, and nope. Nothing but talk of 700+, 600 "floors", 200+ OWs, and "the first 1b dom grosser???" I do have to agree...go to the 1st TLK OW thread...when the $23M Thursday DOM previews came in, $600M was the floor, and $700M+ was the likely final DOM BO number from a LOT of posters...that's when the movie was actually open...not 1 year in advance... Few posters actually considered how frontloaded it could be for a family movie, and just accepted "no August competition, no problem" as their mantra for how the movie was gonna go so sky high... I was under $500M DOM for a long time...seems like I should have picked under $600M, but I guess I was close:)... Now, on Spidey, that's where I had too much DOM optimism:)...beating TLK in a nailbiter ain't gonna happen:)...even if it is also under $500M DOM (at least I got that much right:)... 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Krissykins Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, TalismanRing said: The break even target article by Deadline takes ancillaries into account. They weren't talking about theatrical break even. It should easily make that then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 The Lion King (2019) BV $9,180,811 -62% -56% 4,725 $1,943 $361,053,898 11 2 2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Sony $4,363,379 -61% - 3,659 $1,193 $45,445,397 4 3 3 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $1,792,843 -55% -38% 3,851 $466 $346,500,256 28 4 4 Toy Story 4 BV $1,430,583 -54% -30% 3,610 $396 $397,640,722 39 5 5 Crawl Par. $565,132 -56% -29% 2,720 $208 $32,090,181 18 6 6 Yesterday Uni. $460,515 -51% -28% 2,550 $181 $63,881,740 32 7 7 Aladdin (2019) BV $456,060 -48% -21% 1,798 $254 $346,636,294 67 8 8 Stuber Fox $259,042 -55% -49% 2,150 $120 $20,441,302 18 9 10 Annabelle Comes Home WB (NL) $247,682 -46% -40% 1,287 $192 $69,978,092 34 10 11 The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $190,120 -40% -30% 1,001 $190 $153,918,300 53 11 9 The Farewell A24 $172,590 -62% +59% 135 $1,278 $3,823,840 18 12 - Midsommar A24 $136,586 -42% -50% 626 $218 $24,411,976 27 - 12 Avengers: Endgame BV $130,571 -47% -49% 580 $225 $856,706,929 95 - - Rocketman Par. $69,215 -54% -44% 518 $134 $95,021,675 60 - - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $63,294 -50% -36% 426 $149 $169,751,005 74 - - The Art of Self-Defense BST $59,450 -45% -55% 541 $110 $2,132,021 18 - - Men in Black International Sony $44,464 -44% -48% 343 $130 $78,875,053 46 - - Booksmart UAR $39,969 -43% +204% 555 $72 $22,492,194 67 - - Godzilla: King of the Monsters WB $33,877 -54% +31% 238 $142 $109,968,931 60 - - Pavarotti CBS $23,814 -52% -20% 135 $176 $4,259,461 53 - - The Fighting Preacher Purd. $19,994 +867% - 28 $714 $148,972 6 - - The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 $18,686 -56% -44% 114 $164 $4,123,992 53 - - Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $17,253 -49% -6% 155 $111 $143,858,720 81 - - Dark Phoenix Fox $14,262 -60% -43% 145 $98 $65,609,445 53 - - Child's Play (2019) UAR $14,041 -48% -39% 125 $112 $28,977,307 39 - - Shaft (2019) WB (NL) $11,763 -63% -46% 153 $77 $21,241,636 46 - - The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith AAE $9,311 +321% -33% 33 $282 $1,490,031 32 - - Anna (2019) LG/S $8,592 -21% -17% 44 $195 $7,687,347 39 - - Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable ENTMP $3,814 -72% -69% 63 $61 $548,369 18 - - Dumbo (2019) BV $2,581 -42% -33% 45 $57 $114,740,069 123 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 56 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I do have to agree...go to the 1st TLK OW thread...when the $23M Thursday DOM previews came in, $600M was the floor, and $700M+ was the likely final DOM BO number from a LOT of posters...that's when the movie was actually open...not 1 year in advance... Few posters actually considered how frontloaded it could be for a family movie, and just accepted "no August competition, no problem" as their mantra for how the movie was gonna go so sky high... I was under $500M DOM for a long time...seems like I should have picked under $600M, but I guess I was close:)... Now, on Spidey, that's where I had too much DOM optimism:)...beating TLK in a nailbiter ain't gonna happen:)...even if it is also under $500M DOM (at least I got that much right:)... Exactly. Some were massively wrong on TLK some were massive wrong on FFH. Both will end up doing well but not what the peak expectation was for either. FFH got closer to peak imo. Soon as I saw mediocre reviews and people said it was like Aladdin but nowhere near as good I lowered my expectations for the film. I was still disappointed so to be frank I think it's lucky it's getting as much as it is. It's a financial success for Disney but a pretty blah attempt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Shouldn't be too long before Toy Story 4 starts to beat FFH in dallies. FFH's run has been completely in line with predictions after Opening Week (except OD which the overreactions are pretty funny same with Toy Story 4's OW in general). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Based on Lucy and The Equalizer 2's dailies gonna guess a 18-19m second weekend for Hollywood. So long as the drop is sub-55% I'm not gonna be too worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Based on Lucy and The Equalizer 2's dailies gonna guess a 18-19m second weekend for Hollywood. So long as the drop is sub-55% I'm not gonna be too worried Looking at them and Mamma Mia! sequel , seem you can survive a -56%/-62% with summer days, you need to stabilize weekend 3 too with some -40% to have good legs too. Specially in this case of really big previews has a share of the OW, the drop of the second weekend will make it look worst than it is I imagine. Edited July 30, 2019 by Barnack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
