Hobbs & Shaw Weekend Thread: 60.8M OW (6th-best August debut), 180.8M WW | TLK 38.2, OUATIH 20, FFH 7.7, TS4 7.1, Farewell 2.4

[tawasal]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It was 401k on the-numbers earlier as well (see TalismanRing's post up page).  I suspect the wrong number got reported somewhere along the line and that's the actual actual.

It's not only EG anymore, they had a lot of other movies with different actuals before the update.

How could they ef' up so much? 

[Porthos]

Just now, tawasal said:

It's not only EG anymore, they had a lot of other movies with different actuals before the update.

How could they ef' up so much? 

No clue.  Data entry can be a PITA at times.

 

(might have been a rolling error where one mistake lead to another in the database somewhere, say an offset column row or something like that - though it BOP was reporting the same thing, it was probably a error from the source, if still along those lines)

[tawasal]

Just now, Porthos said:

No clue.  Data entry can be a PITA at times.

 

(might have been a rolling error where one mistake lead to another in the database somewhere, say an offset column row or something like that - though it BOP was reporting the same thing, it was probably a error from the source, if still along those lines)

[Joyous Legion]

Lol, bit of an actuals reporting clusterF with Disney today.      

 

With actual actual actuals, it seems like Aladdin is back down below Rambo First Blood Part II: Chapter III: Verse IV: Draft V

[Porthos]

Actual actuals, difference between studio estimates and said actuals (Top 20)

 

Quote

 

<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
Est. / Act. Diff Movie Title (click to view) Studio Studio Est. / Actual Diff % Diff Theaters Est. Total Actual Wk 1 1 - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw Uni. $60,800,000 $60,038,950 $-761,050 -1.3% 4,253 $60,800,000 $60,038,950 1 2 2 - The Lion King (2019) BV $38,246,000 $38,520,022 $+274,022 +0.7% 4,802 $430,889,078 $431,163,100 3 3 3 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Sony $20,025,000 $20,010,534 $-14,466 -0.1% 3,659 $78,842,475 $78,828,009 2 4 4 - Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $7,755,000 $7,904,057 $+149,057 +1.9% 3,446 $360,328,925 $360,477,982 5 5 5 - Toy Story 4 BV $7,150,000 $7,349,131 $+199,131 +2.8% 3,225 $410,050,743 $410,249,874 7 6 6 - Yesterday Uni. $2,440,000 $2,468,080 $+28,080 +1.2% 1,837 $67,902,655 $67,930,735 6 7 7 - The Farewell A24 $2,429,114 $2,412,503 $-16,611 -0.7% 409 $6,837,624 $6,821,013 4 8 8 - Crawl Par. $2,150,000 $2,186,316 $+36,316 +1.7% 2,720 $36,090,773 $36,127,089 4 9 9 - Aladdin (2019) BV $2,018,000 $2,125,485 $+107,485 +5.3% 1,370 $350,369,592 $350,477,077 11 10 10 - Annabelle Comes Home WB (NL) $875,000 $878,234 $+3,234 +0.4% 919 $71,575,112 $71,578,346 6 11 11 - The Secret Life of Pets 2 Uni. $730,000 $741,830 $+11,830 +1.6% 779 $155,409,025 $155,420,855 9 12 12 - Stuber Fox $506,000 $574,461 $+68,461 +13.5% 1,080 $21,752,533 $21,820,994 4 13 13 - Midsommar A24 $407,775 $410,603 $+2,828 +0.7% 381 $25,212,116 $25,214,944 5 14 14 - Avengers: Endgame BV $313,000 $383,158 $+70,158 +22.4% 420 $857,409,335 $857,479,493 15 14 15 +1 Rocketman Par. $285,000 $294,009 $+9,009 +3.2% 518 $95,546,549 $95,555,558 10 16 16 - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum LG/S $230,000 $243,470 $+13,470 +5.9% 339 $170,165,857 $170,179,327 12 15 17 +2 Maiden SPC $229,436 $223,463 $-5,973 -2.6% 131 $1,525,638 $1,519,665 6 16 19 +3 Luce Neon $132,916 $132,987 $+71 +0.1% 5 $132,916 $132,987 1 17 21 +4 Dark Phoenix Fox $109,000 $100,292 $-8,708 -8.0% 125 $65,764,489 $65,755,781 9 18 24 +6 Echo in the Canyon Greenwich $95,340 $85,801 $-9,539 -10.0% 104 $3,077,151 $3,067,611 11 19 28 +9 David Crosby: Remember My Name SPC $76,265 $72,073 $-4,192 -5.5% 29 $178,523 $174,331 3 20 33 +13 Biggest Little Farm Neon $53,250 $53,644 $+394 +0.7% 53 $4,230,506 $4,230,034 13

 

[tawasal]

@Porthos Do you know how this happened????

I don't really think I remember this happening at all. 

This must the biggest difference from estimate to actual.

 

12

28

+16

Dumbo (2019)

BV

$1,692,000

$80,281

$-1,611,719

-95.3%

120

$115,569,069

$114,424,350

14

[KP1025]

1 minute ago, tawasal said:

@Porthos Do you know how this happened????

I don't really think I remember this happening at all. 

This must the biggest difference from estimate to actual.

 

12

28

+16

Dumbo (2019)

BV

$1,692,000

$80,281

$-1,611,719

-95.3%

120

$115,569,069

$114,424,350

14

 

They accidentally inputted Dark Phoenix's weekend estimate number instead. Look how those two numbers were identical.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, tawasal said:

@Porthos Do you know how this happened????

I don't really think I remember this happening at all. 

This must the biggest difference from estimate to actual.

 

12

28

+16

Dumbo (2019)

BV

$1,692,000

$80,281

$-1,611,719

-95.3%

120

$115,569,069

$114,424,350

14

That was when the wrong movie was entered into Dumbo's weekend estimate by BOM.  Was well covered at the time.

 

As I said before, data entry can be a PITA at times. 

[tawasal]

Just now, KP1025 said:

 

They accidentally inputted Dark Phoenix's weekend estimate number instead. Look how those two numbers were identical.

Wow I just saw that. What a fuck up. 

 

You should really check out this keeper mistake, it's the funniest shit I have ever seen. And the commentator makes it 100x funnier. 

 

 

[tawasal]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That was when the wrong movie was entered into Dumbo's weekend estimate by BOM.  Was well covered at the time.

 

As I said before, data entry can be a PITA at times. 

I must have been out of whack that weekend. Don't remember it at all. 

[JB33]

Yikes at this weekend!

 

Among the top 12 grossers, 9 grossed over $1M. #12 Stuber rung in only $574K! Looking back at the same weekend over the past several years, the last time the top 12 had ONE film under $1M (nevermind THREE) was 2015, when #12 Terminator: Genisys rung in $943K. Before that - and the only other time since 1982 when BOM first tracks weekends - was in 1994,, when #12 The Flinstones grossed $843K.

 

Now I realize this is basically due to the limited number of releases in July but it's still crazy to see.

[sfran43]

Rank*	Title	Friday 8/2	Saturday 8/3	Sunday 8/4	Monday 8/5
1	FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW Universal 4,253	$23,605,520 -- / $5,550 $23,605,520 / 1	$20,552,805 -12.9% / $4,833 $44,158,325 / 2	$15,880,625 -22.7% / $3,734 $60,038,950 / 3	N/A
2	THE LION KING (2019) Buena Vista 4,802	$11,204,815 +48.2% / $2,333 $403,847,893 / 15	$15,388,700 +37.3% / $3,205 $419,236,593 / 16	$11,926,507 -22.5% / $2,484 $431,163,100 / 17	N/A
3	ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD Sony / Columbia 3,659	$5,703,908 +64.1% / $1,559 $64,521,383 / 8	$8,061,632 +41.3% / $2,203 $72,583,015 / 9	$6,244,994 -22.5% / $1,707 $78,828,009 / 10	N/A
4	SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME Sony / Columbia 3,446	$2,260,524 +45.5% / $656 $354,834,449 / 32	$3,158,967 +39.7% / $917 $357,993,416 / 33	$2,484,566 -21.3% / $721 $360,477,982 / 34	N/A
5	TOY STORY 4 Buena Vista 3,225	$2,199,693 +55.5% / $682 $405,100,436 / 43	$3,025,863 +37.6% / $938 $408,126,299 / 44	$2,123,575 -29.8% / $658 $410,249,874 / 45	N/A
6	THE FAREWELL  A24 409	$717,716 +323.3% / $1,755 $5,126,226 / 22	$969,311 +35.1% / $2,370 $6,095,537 / 23	$725,476 -25.2% / $1,774 $6,821,013 / 24	N/A
7	YESTERDAY Universal 1,837	$730,300 +77% / $398 $66,192,955 / 36	$1,032,540 +41.4% / $562 $67,225,495 / 37	$705,240 -31.7% / $384 $67,930,735 / 38	N/A
8	CRAWL Paramount 2,720	$615,204 +43% / $226 $34,555,977 / 22	$887,941 +44.3% / $326 $35,443,918 / 23	$683,171 -23.1% / $251 $36,127,089 / 24	N/A
9	ALADDIN (2019) Buena Vista 1,370	$613,382 +36.7% / $448 $348,964,974 / 71	$869,662 +41.8% / $635 $349,834,636 / 72	$642,441 -26.1% / $469 $350,477,077 / 73	N/A
10	ANNABELLE COMES HOME Warner Bros. (New Line) 919	$269,064 +61.4% / $293 $70,969,176 / 38	$345,943 +28.6% / $376 $71,315,119 / 39	$263,227 -23.9% / $286 $71,578,346 / 40	N/A
11	THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 Universal 779	$220,645 +9.9% / $283 $154,899,670 / 57	$281,590 +27.6% / $361 $155,181,260 / 58	$239,595 -14.9% / $308 $155,420,855 / 59	N/A
12	STUBER Fox 1,080	$163,280 +5.1% / $151 $21,409,813 / 22	$221,289 +35.5% / $205 $21,631,102 / 23	$189,892 -14.2% / $176 $21,820,994 / 24	N/A
-	MIDSOMMAR A24 381	$123,825 +23.4% / $325 $24,928,166 / 31	$157,750 +27.4% / $414 $25,085,916 / 32	$129,028 -18.2% / $339 $25,214,944 / 33	N/A
-	AVENGERS: ENDGAME Buena Vista 420	$112,100 -3.2% / $267 $857,208,435 / 99	$151,897 +35.5% / $362 $857,360,332 / 100	$119,161 -21.6% / $284 $857,479,493 / 101	N/A
-	ROCKETMAN  Paramount 518	$72,860 +14.1% / $141 $95,334,409 / 64	$126,628 +73.8% / $244 $95,461,037 / 65	$94,521 -25.4% / $182 $95,555,558 / 66	N/A
-	JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3 - PARABELLUM Lionsgate/Summit 339	$66,203 +42.9% / $195 $170,002,060 / 78	$99,357 +50.1% / $293 $170,101,417 / 79	$77,910 -21.6% / $230 $170,179,327 / 80	N/A
-	MEN IN BLACK INTERNATIONAL Sony / Columbia 251	$48,323 +33.3% / $193 $79,066,024 / 50	$66,017 +36.6% / $263 $79,132,041 / 51	$49,037 -25.7% / $195 $79,181,078 / 52	N/A
-	GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS Warner Bros. 192	$33,254 +13% / $173 $110,107,755 / 64	$48,085 +44.6% / $250 $110,155,840 / 65	$41,857 -13% / $218 $110,197,697 / 66	N/A
-	LUCE Neon 5	$48,986 -- / $9,797 $48,986 / 1	$47,430 -3.2% / $9,486 $96,416 / 2	$36,571 -22.9% / $7,314 $132,987 / 3	N/A
-	PAVAROTTI CBS Films 94	$18,982 -30.1% / $141 $4,358,360 / 57	$36,905 +94.4% / $273 $4,395,265 / 58	$30,269 -18% / $322 $4,425,534 / 59	N/A
-	THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO A24 74	$25,530 +18.2% / $345 $4,212,768 / 57	$35,500 +39.1% / $480 $4,248,268 / 58	$28,763 -19% / $389 $4,277,031 / 59	N/A
-	SUPER 30 Reliance Big Pictures 77	$20,254 +109% / $263 $2,206,769 / 22	$35,224 +73.9% / $457 $2,241,993 / 23	$27,885 -20.8% / $362 $2,269,878 / 24	N/A
-	ECHO IN THE CANYON Greenwich 104	$22,359 +11.9% / $215 $3,004,170 / 71	$36,786 +64.5% / $354 $3,040,956 / 72	$26,655 -27.5% / $256 $3,067,611 / 73	N/A
-	DARK PHOENIX Fox 125	$30,172 +125.9% / $241 $65,685,661 / 57	$43,630 +44.6% / $349 $65,729,291 / 58	$26,490 -39.3% / $212 $65,755,781 / 59	N/A
-	MARIANNE & LEONARD: WORDS OF LOVE Roadside Attractions 101	$18,628 +18.8% / $224 $636,223 / 29	$30,852 +65.6% / $372 $667,075 / 30	$23,853 -22.7% / $236 $693,896 / 31	N/A
-	THE ART OF SELF-DEFENSE Bleecker Street 110	$16,385 -64.6% / $149 $2,328,580 / 22	$21,007 +28.2% / $191 $2,349,587 / 23	$19,213 -8.5% / $175 $2,368,800 / 24	N/A
-	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU Warner Bros. 134	$20,021 +16.2% / $149 $143,938,472 / 85	$27,827 +39% / $208 $143,966,299 / 86	$18,865 -32.2% / $141 $143,985,164 / 87	N/A
-	CHILD'S PLAY (2019) United Artists Releasing 90	$16,500 +48% / $183 $29,135,805 / 43	$21,968 +33.1% / $244 $29,157,773 / 44	$18,759 -14.6% / $208 $29,176,532 / 45	N/A
-	WILD ROSE  Neon 87	$14,999 +15% / $172 $1,471,863 / 43	$23,398 +56% / $269 $1,495,261 / 44	$18,017 -23% / $207 $1,513,278 / 45	N/A
-	BIGGEST LITTLE FARM Neon 53	$15,111 +108.5% / $285 $4,191,500 / 85	$22,667 +50% / $428 $4,214,167 / 86	$15,867 -30% / $299 $4,230,034 / 87	N/A
-	LATE NIGHT Amazon Studios 86	$12,273 +22.3% / $104 $15,360,330 / 57	$19,242 +56.8% / $163 $15,379,572 / 58	$14,921 -22.5% / $174 $15,394,493 / 59	N/A
-	SHAFT (2019)  Warner Bros. (New Line) 108	$11,027 +8.2% / $102 $21,291,697 / 50	$18,783 +70.3% / $174 $21,310,480 / 51	$12,134 -35.4% / $112 $21,322,614 / 52	N/A
-	BOOKSMART United Artists Releasing 55	$7,885 -77.9% / $143 $22,634,206 / 71	$13,018 +65.1% / $237 $22,647,224 / 72	$10,658 -18.1% / $194 $22,657,882 / 73	N/A
-	HONEYLAND Neon 5	$9,088 +212.6% / $1,818 $53,244 / 8	$16,583 +82.5% / $3,317 $69,827 / 9	$10,225 -38.3% / $2,045 $80,052 / 10	N/A
-	ANNA (2019) Lionsgate/Summit 26	$8,754 -7.4% / $337 $7,719,094 / 43	$8,561 -2.2% / $329 $7,727,655 / 44	$6,468 -24.4% / $249 $7,734,123 / 45	N/A
-	DUMBO (2019) Buena Vista 30	$2,461 -19.8% / $82 $114,752,642 / 127	$3,214 +30.6% / $107 $114,755,856 / 128	$3,150 -2% / $105 $114,759,006 / 129	N/A

[tawasal]

8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yikes at this weekend!

 

Among the top 12 grossers, 9 grossed over $1M. #12 Stuber rung in only $574K! Looking back at the same weekend over the past several years, the last time the top 12 had ONE film under $1M (nevermind THREE) was 2015, when #12 Terminator: Genisys rung in $943K. Before that - and the only other time since 1982 when BOM first tracks weekends - was in 1994,, when #12 The Flinstones grossed $843K.

 

Now I realize this is basically due to the limited number of releases in July but it's still crazy to see.

I think it has already been discussed on how other studios dropped the ball on this schedule and the next few weeks, being scared of TLK's potential. They dropped all their eggs in early summer and spring and got slaughtered by the disney heavyweights.  

[JB33]

15 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I think it has already been discussed on how other studios dropped the ball on this schedule and the next few weeks, being scared of TLK's potential. They dropped all their eggs in early summer and spring and got slaughtered by the disney heavyweights.  

Yep, you're right. A crazy summer indeed.

[tawasal]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yep, you're right. A crazy summer indeed.

Next year should be a more relaxed year with the Disney releases. I think the next few years Disney will have less and less big IP's to reboot and Marvel movies with potential 300m to 400m should be further apart and the other studios will have room to be breath in the scheduling headache. This year had a lot of potentially great release dates that they were too dumb to notice. 

[cdsacken]

Today sucks. My 12 year old Shiba Inu died. Good Lord that hit me hard. Came out of nowhere

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inc 2 did another 36m or so (with a LDW expansion it should be noted).  Add another 30m then to TS4 and we get 440m. If it gets a LDW expansion (alongside TLK???) then another 35-36m gets it 445m.

 

450m is now probably out of reach.  But Shrek 2's 441.2 certainly seems attainable. 

TS4 exceeded Inc 2 after being about 35% down in first weekend. So it won't just meet Inc 2 numbers but exceed them.

 

Also worth nothing is, it dropped just 30% compared to 39% of Inc 2, so it has huge momentum going ahead. 

 

$36mn is least it will do. It will also get Labour Day expansion. $450mn is happening.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

TS4 exceeded Inc 2 after being about 35% down in first weekend. So it won't just meet Inc 2 numbers but exceed them.

 

Also worth nothing is, it dropped just 30% compared to 39% of Inc 2, so it has huge momentum going ahead. 

 

$36mn is least it will do. It will also get Labour Day expansion. $450mn is happening.

Disney will have two films out at the time when it could get LDW expansion.  My question is: Do they expand both TS4 and TLK?  Especially if there isn't much for either to shoot for.

 

Also, Inc 2 expanded to get it over 600m.  Disney then said "Screw it" and left it in theaters for three more months and got another 6m out of it:

 

Quote

Aug 24–26	15	$1,642,506	-28.6%	1,060	-178	$1,550	$597,055,472	11
Aug 31–Sep 2	11	$3,372,388	+105%	2,890	+1,830	$1,167	$601,233,301	12
Aug 31–Sep 3	11	$4,718,468	+187%	2,890	+1,830	$1,633	$602,579,381	12
Sep 7–9	12	$1,352,194	-59.9%	1,446	-1,444	$935	$604,465,699	13
Sep 14–16	17	$746,709	-44.8%	710	-736	$1,052	$605,615,734	14
Sep 21–23	19	$533,570	-28.5%	500	-210	$1,067	$606,357,928	15
Sep 28–30	27	$272,035	-49.0%	338	-162	$805	$606,763,617	16
Oct 5–7	24	$280,305	+3.0%	244	-94	$1,149	$607,125,392	17
Oct 12–14	22	$211,902	-24.4%	194	-50	$1,092	$607,474,495	18
Oct 19–21	23	$173,845	-18.0%	176	-18	$988	$607,713,414	19
Oct 26–28	30	$138,566	-20.3%	160	-16	$866	$607,899,050	20
Nov 2–4	27	$168,949	+21.9%	150	-10	$1,126	$608,109,517	21
Nov 9–11	33	$122,819	-27.3%	140	-10	$877	$608,276,278	22
Nov 16–18	35	$80,805	-34.2%	130	-10	$622	$608,401,000	23
Nov 23–25	39	$57,409	-29.0%	106	-24	$542	$608,508,728	24
Nov 30–Dec 2	51	$29,342	-48.9%	93	-13	$316	$608,546,980	25
Dec 7–9	55	$18,598	-36.6%	66	-27	$282	$608,574,642	26

 

Legitimately uncertain how Disney plays this post LDW, especially with a possible new paradigm with Disney+.

 

Like, I am still baffled that they didn't bother to push Christopher Robin over 100m when it was just sitting there at 99m.  Sure, there was a half-hearted expansion in Oct, but... I dunno.  Just weird, really.

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Today sucks. My 12 year old Shiba Inu died. Good Lord that hit me hard. Came out of nowhere

 

Its life span is 12 years iirc. That's why I don't do pet, among other reasons.

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Today sucks. My 12 year old Shiba Inu died. Good Lord that hit me hard. Came out of nowhere

My 15y+ old German Spitz made it till last Wednesday evening. Was very very ill for the last half year +.

 

Feeling with you, it sucks.

 

(edit; the distraction needed is one of the reasons I started to participate with the ranked lists, but also doing some costly tool updates and other insanities I 'justify' with the nearing birthday also and so on)

Edited August 6, 2019 by terrestrial