Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[thajdikt]

4 minutes ago, Durden said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania red carpet premiere has been moved up to February 6, no longer happening on February 13.

Makes sense since the embargo is lifting the 6th. Was wondering about if they were going to move it up.

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, Durden said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania red carpet premiere has been moved up to February 6, no longer happening on February 13.

Show of confidence, 400M locked 

[Saul Goodman]

In Peyton, we trust!

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

In Peyton, we trust!

After AMQ gets all the accolades they’ll announce him as the director of Secret Wars 🔥

[Saul Goodman]

 

[Verrows]

On 1/25/2023 at 1:43 PM, Saul Goodman said:

 

"It'll be like going camping!"

 

"We've never been camping"

 

"But we always talked about it"

 

Not sure why but I loved this exchange 🤣.

[eddyxx]

If I don’t get at least one time quote out of this movie I think I’ll be disappointed. 
 

“Scott Lang, your time has run out!”

[Eric is Quiet]

https://thequorum.com/update-ant-man-tracking-is-on-the-rise/

 

Quote

On New Year’s Eve, we posed the question, where is Paul Rudd in the ANT-MAN campaign? At the time, the campaign was focusing heavily on Jonathan Majors as “Kang.”.  

At the time, awareness and interest for QUANTUMANIA were lagging behind BLACK ADAM, which opened to $65M. Since then, the campaign has shifted its focus to the rest of cast including Rudd. On January 9^h, Disney released a cast ensemble poster with Rudd in the center (below, far left) along with a new trailer. A week later, we got a series of very colorful character poster. 

 

As a result, the tracking for the film has soared. . 

 

Let’s start by looking at awareness. At the beginning of the year, awareness for ANT-MAN (dark yellow) was at 35%. Since then it’s rocketed up to 46%. Despite the gains, awareness still trails ADAM (light yellow) and THUNDER (brown).  At 46%, it’s still much lower than we would expect. Hopefully, this steep upward turn will continue. 

 

While the gains in awareness are nice and even expected – frankly, it would be shocking if awareness for QUANTUMANIA didn’t start rising – it’s the gains in interest that are most encouraging. Interest for QUANTUMANIA (dark blue) is not at 6.0. It still trails THUNDER (black) at the same distance from release, but it has climbed above ADA (light blue) at 5.9. 

 

We often say that as a rule of thumb, a film is in a good space if interest is above 6.0 by the time the movie opens. When we’re talking about Marvel/DC films, we want to see interest above 6.5. In fact, as you can see below, four of the five Marvel/DC releases had interest scores above 6.8. THUNDER (black) reached 7.0, while ADAM (baby blue) stalled at 6.3.  

 

Fortunately, QUANTUMANIA is opening on a four-day weekend, which will help. For the purposes of this analysis, however, we’re discuss QUANTUMANIA in terms of its three-day prospects. These numbers suggests that QUANTUMANIA can top the $67M opening for ADAM across three days, but it still has work to do if it hopes to if it hopes to top the $76M opening for the last ANT-MAN film. 

 

[Factcheck]

25 minutes ago, Eric Slay said:

https://thequorum.com/update-ant-man-tracking-is-on-the-rise/

 

 

This contradicts BOT and BOP tracking. The only explanation that can be given for this is that, despite having overall lower awareness and interest, those who are aware and interested want to watch the movie on OW, so I suspect this movie to be heavily frontloaded. But 120M over 3 days and 2.4x IM will still put it at 288M total.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

This contradicts BOT and BOP tracking. The only explanation that can be given for this is that, despite having overall lower awareness and interest, those who are aware and interested want to watch the movie on OW, so I suspect this movie to be heavily frontloaded. But 120M over 3 days and 2.4x IM will still put it at 288M total.

The "only explanation"? Or that the Ant-Man brand started off from a lower Tier/baseline than the more established Thor and Strange, but the introduction of Kang is going to vault it up into the mid-tier. Only that takes time, doesn't happen overnight, and would expect a greater rate of increase (steeper line) from now until finish than the comparables for these metrics

 

Also Thor's audience skews pretty white, and so likely overstated in awareness and interest in surveys compared to more diverse (and more difficult to sample) audiences like BPWF and BA

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Quorum is just general audience polling and often reflects preexisting popularity of the character/actor/brand rather than interest in the specific movie. I wouldn't put any weight on it once we have more precise metrics like presales (and will note that even industry tracking that uses similar methodology to Quorum is at 100+ for the 3 day).

 

Even in the chart in that article, the fact that DS2 day-of interest was below Thor and Batman tells you pretty much all you need to know about using this to precisely predict. I think even NWH wasn't much higher than those two lmao.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[JustLurking]

...or! quorum while a useful tool is not the end-all-be-all, and clearly is wrong here because the raw numbers don't lie, and the film is clearly going to blaze through that 76M

Edited January 27, 2023 by JustLurking

[XXR & Friends]

According to Quorum, Scream 6 and AMQ have the same amount of interest (both general and for those polled who want to watch it in theaters). I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with information like that when we know AMQ will be a minimum 3x larger (potentially upwards of 5x). 

[Factcheck]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

The "only explanation"? Or that the Ant-Man brand started off from a lower Tier/baseline than the more established Thor and Strange, but the introduction of Kang is going to vault it up into the mid-tier. Only that takes time, doesn't happen overnight, and would expect a greater rate of increase (steeper line) from now until finish than the comparables for these metrics

 

Also Thor's audience skews pretty white, and so likely overstated in awareness and interest in surveys compared to more diverse (and more difficult to sample) audiences like BPWF and BA

 

 

I think this site tracks all moviegoers, which includes both white and black, so I don't think it should matter whether a movie is more white-skewed or more diverse. For example, Creed 3 at present has 50 awareness and 6.1 interest.

[Factcheck]

13 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

According to Quorum, Scream 6 and AMQ have the same amount of interest (both general and for those polled who want to watch it in theaters). I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with information like that when we know AMQ will be a minimum 3x larger (potentially upwards of 5x). 

I think this site doesn't count those who don't watch horror movies when it comes to tracking general awareness of horror movies. So awareness and interest are limited to those who watch horror movies. For Ant-Man, awareness and interest are of those who watch action, adventure, sci-fi, and superhero movies, reaching a much broader audience. This explanation could be given.

[M37]

1 minute ago, Factcheck said:

I think this site tracks all moviegoers, which includes both white and black, so I don't think it should matter whether a movie is more white-skewed or more diverse. For example, Creed 3 at present has 50 awareness and 6.1 interest.

It’s a common problem in tracking and polling to have difficulty reaching some groups of people. If the actual demo breakdown is close, then it won’t matter much, but when a film’s audience skews one way or the other, it will throw off the relative ratios; that’s why Thor is higher in Quorum numbers than films with bigger OWs. 

 

A whole lot of tracking underestimations  can be traced to higher audience share among non-white or otherwise less reliably tracked audience (and vice versa), like TGM’s strength in non-coastal regions. Basically, we’re only seeing half of the picture and extrapolating with the presumption the other half will be “normal”, when it quite often isn’t

[Menor the Destroyer]

Sampling is part of it but I also feel like tracking measures interest that is fairly soft and doesn't always translate to the hard commitment of buying a ticket. Something like Ant-Man might have less of that soft interest due to the character's pretty low stature in the MCU, but Kang hype is converting a higher percentage into hard interest that we can see in presales (and that is also much more directly relevant to box office).

Edited January 27, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[dobrevv]

I just noticed that trailer on marvel latin youtube channel has 41 mil views while on the main one only 21 mil

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

I just noticed that trailer on marvel latin youtube channel has 41 mil views while on the main one only 21 mil

Gotta be ad views messing things up, likes are only 41k.

[Factcheck]

11 minutes ago, dobrevv said:

I just noticed that trailer on marvel latin youtube channel has 41 mil views while on the main one only 21 mil

DS2-like numbers are possible in Brazil and Mexico. Overseas audiences are much more interested in MCU's bigger, overarching storyline than domestic audiences.