spizzer Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 (edited) You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves. This is not going to drop less than 60%. It just won't.I'm just offering as many scenarios as I can B. I don't actually see it having those sub 50% drops. Edited March 26, 2012 by spizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Spizzer, it won't drop 5.6% on Wednesday... take a look at most Wednesday drops nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davebern Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 It'll probably drop in the 18-23% range on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 (edited) On the flipside, it may stay flat on Tuesday or even increase a little (for some reason chick flicks tend to increase a lot). Edited March 26, 2012 by Elessar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Spizzer, it won't drop 5.6% on Wednesday... take a look at most Wednesday drops nowadays.He was just using Spider-Man's weekday drops to see how much it would make if it followed a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davebern Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 In which case Wednesday's hold would be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Spizzer, it won't drop 5.6% on Wednesday... take a look at most Wednesday drops nowadays.I know. Its just an extrapolation based on SM1's first week, which was 10 years ago, when dailies played out differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 (edited) Based on Alice's first week <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:260px;" width="240"> <colgroup> <col /> <col /> <col /> </colgroup> <tbody> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;width:70px;"> Day</td> <td style="width:94px;"> Gross</td> <td style="width:64px;"> Change</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Monday</td> <td> $ 10,106,901</td> <td align="right"> -71.0%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Tuesday</td> <td> $ 8,948,700</td> <td align="right"> -11.5%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Wednesday</td> <td> $ 7,598,661</td> <td align="right"> -15.1%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Thursday</td> <td> $ 7,592,152</td> <td align="right"> -0.1%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Friday</td> <td> $ 19,388,589</td> <td align="right"> 155.4%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Saturday</td> <td> $ 30,176,701</td> <td align="right"> 55.6%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Sunday</td> <td> $ 20,796,025</td> <td align="right"> -31.1%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> 2nd Weekend</td> <td> $ 70,361,315</td> <td align="right"> -53.9%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Cumulative</td> <td> $ 257,143,476</td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Edited March 26, 2012 by spizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommycruise Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I just knew it wouldn't beat the dark knight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves. This is not going to drop less than 60%. It just won't.Thats opinion. Provide the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 High schools are on spring break by me this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travod Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 SPRING BREAK OFFICIALNew York City - 1.1 million students - April 6-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 (edited) Projections based on Iron Man<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:231px;" width="231"> <colgroup> <col /> <col /> <col /> </colgroup> <tbody> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;width:80px;"> Day</td> <td style="width:78px;"> Gross</td> <td style="width:42px;"> Change</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Monday</td> <td> $9,290,147</td> <td align="right"> -73.4%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Tuesday</td> <td> $8,715,711</td> <td align="right"> -6.2%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Wednesday</td> <td> $7,699,639</td> <td align="right"> -11.7%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Thursday</td> <td> $7,137,891</td> <td align="right"> -7.3%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Friday</td> <td> $19,925,415</td> <td align="right"> 179.1%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Saturday</td> <td> $28,635,303</td> <td align="right"> 43.7%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Sunday</td> <td> $20,018,679</td> <td align="right"> -30.1%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> 2nd Weekend</td> <td> $68,579,397</td> <td align="right"> -55.0%</td> </tr> <tr height="15"> <td height="15" style="height:14px;"> Cumulative</td> <td> $253,958,533</td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Edited March 26, 2012 by spizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Spider-Man 3 dropped 61.5%. I think that is absolutely worst case scenario for THG. SM3 had already started its collapse during the week as WOM was bad and it was a 3rd film in a franchise so frontloading was going to happen. 55% drop seems a lot more probable, possibly even better depending how it holds up during the week. It's a non-sequel and films in March are much more weekend oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 So expect anywhere from 245M-255M by next sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ariadne Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Just an amazing weekend - I never thought it'd make over $150m - just incredible stuff. A sub 60% drop will be pretty difficult though, we'll have to see how the weekdays pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldenfirefly Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I think this movie will have some legs. But do remember, this is March. No holidays for either kids or adults. The weekday numbers won't be good. But I am hoping weekend will be higher though. AIW dropped 70% on its first Monday in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Needle Nose Ned Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Serious Question: Why do people believe Games won't be able to duplicate Alice's 2.9x from here? The big open? The perceived frontloadedness of the movie? Burton/Depp giving Alice stronger legs? Because 400 is just too big to project? I'm really just asking because there's a lot of smart people here. Personally, I have no idea how it will hold up, but I can't see a reason why it wouldn't hold up to at least a 2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zlazer Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Serious Question: Why do people believe Games won't be able to duplicate Alice's 2.9x from here? The big open? The perceived frontloadedness of the movie? Burton/Depp giving Alice stronger legs? Because 400 is just too big to project? I'm really just asking because there's a lot of smart people here. Personally, I have no idea how it will hold up, but I can't see a reason why it wouldn't hold up to at least a 2.5.Mainly due to its nature of over acheiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Frankly every mega hit film since TDK that has opened huge has fallen like a rock.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
