forg Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Still amazing, I "only" predicted 115 million OW lol. What would they do this year if they hadn't acquired Marvel? They'd be screwed majorly! All they have is Wreck It Ralph! :lol: And they also have The Odd Life of Timothy Green in August. I know it won't be big for them but maybe it could be profitable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Serious Question: Why do people believe Games won't be able to duplicate Alice's 2.9x from here? The big open? The perceived frontloadedness of the movie? Burton/Depp giving Alice stronger legs? Because 400 is just too big to project? I'm really just asking because there's a lot of smart people here. Personally, I have no idea how it will hold up, but I can't see a reason why it wouldn't hold up to at least a 2.5. Let's compare THG and Alice's dailies so far..... THG as a % of AIW: Midnights: 500% Rest-of-Friday: 129% Saturday: 114% Sunday: 112% The absolute best case scenario would be to stay at 112% of AIW during its entire run from here on. That would mean an end total of $397M (or a 2.6x multiplier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Man, SM had some crazy holds on the weekends.THG should finish in between 380 to 400M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 So it's gonna drop 60% next wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) So it's gonna drop 60% next wknd?Only if you have a time machine and can answer that for yourself. Until then Fake and whoever else can say whatever they want but it doesn't change the fact that there have been movies that have opened huge and held well, and we still don't know if this will be one of them. We do know however that its Saturday hold already suggest its nowhere near as frontloaded as the Twilight or Potter sequels. And unlike the stuff Fake is spewing out, that's a cold hard fact. Edited March 27, 2012 by MovieMan89 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Let's compare THG and Alice's dailies so far..... THG as a % of AIW: Midnights: 500% Rest-of-Friday: 129% Saturday: 114% Sunday: 112% The absolute best case scenario would be to stay at 112% of AIW during its entire run from here on. That would mean an end total of $397M (or a 2.6x multiplier). THG could easily get a 3.0X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Totem Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Shouldn't go much lower than a 2.5 multi. 375m is were I see it finishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWhoopee Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I think it's already exceeded expectations, I would still be surprised if it makes over $340!!! that number just seems crazy... almost like the OW number... Did this really happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) THG could easily get a 3.0X Lorax with bloody 79% jump on its first Saturday couldn't get 3.0x multiplier buddy. It's 2012 and March. 3x multiplier won't come easy. Let's look at the 2nd weekend drop for recent movies with 25M+ openings with their projected multipliers. John Carter - 2.3x - 55.0% The Lorax - 2.9x - 44.7% The Vow - 3x - 44.0% Jump Street - 3-3.2x - 43.6% Safe House - 3.1x - 41.2% Journey 2 - 3.6x - 27.4% I think you can easily deduce a trend here. So to get 3x multiplier a movie generally needs to get under 44% drop for its 2nd weekend. Since THG opened this big, I am willing it give it 5% more leverage. So unless THG drops under 50% next weekend, 3x multiplier is gone. Or let's just simplify things here by taking out the midnights. 3x multiplier equates to 458M. So taking out the midnights, the OW becomes 132.5M and target 438M. That will mean a 3.3x multiplier and for that to happen, it will need to drop less than 40% (i.e. 80M+). What is your predict for the 2nd weekend? Edited March 27, 2012 by Fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACCA Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) Absolutely incredible OW For 'Games! Never in my life would I have imagined an opening that big! I guess this was a great set of circumstances for Hunger's OW. The market is really dull right now, and it looks like audiences in all 4 quadrants were very eager to see a big film. Seems this combined with a very hyped-up fanbase from the books helped achieve this OW. This was the first big film of the year, but still did not expect that big of an opening.Reminds me of New Moon, and how much that amazed people with its OW. Then of course, it amazed some more with the terrible legs right after OW.I think people as usual did jump to conclusions when they saw OW estimates a few days ago, with the predictions of this beating TDK's OW. This didn't really have enough hype to pull it off, but it came close. Not that close in terms of tickets sold though.Hunger's legs should be VERY interesting. Can it reach 400M domestic? It's possible, but given how much it overachieved on the weekend, it's not a guarantee. I think it will finish roughly at around 350M or so domestically.I personally don't have a whole lot of interest in this film, but it's OW is still tremendous. Truly one of the great OW performances of the last 10 years.Also great to see The Lorax continuing to do good. It deserves the success. Frankly every mega hit film since TDK that has opened huge has fallen like a rock....I think that spoiled a lot of people. TDK's legs after a record-breaking OW were an anomaly, a true exception. Historically, films almost never ever do such kind of performances.Also films generally continue to get more frontloaded with each year. Edited March 27, 2012 by ACCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrWhoopee Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I think it will do somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million next weekend.. is that a 60% drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I figured it would go down in actuals, but with $152M who the hell cares? As for second weekend drop, I'm currently guessing 57%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 "I think it will do somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million next weekend.. is that a 60% drop?"No 60% drop is around 60 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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