The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Valonqar]

I'm not oversimplifying anything, quite the contrary. reviews don't mean much in a vacuum and it isn't one size fits all. In fact, I'd say that social media embargo reactions do the job better or worse than reviews cause the same crowd that cares for one cares for the other. Joe Doe who doesn't check social media for reactions very likely doesn't check reviews either. 

 

Point is, we are seeing a lot of pick and choose here because the boxoffice of the movie is uncertain so its fans want to believe that positive reviews will magically push it further faster higher than it realistically can go. That's really all that is. I'm just saying that great reviews can produce Barbenheimer and bad reviews can produce Mario and great reviews can produce a flop like MI7 and bad reviews can produce a flop like AM3 and all these movies had their own specific set of factors where reviews were just one tiny part that impacted some and didn't impact other. Therefore it isn't possible to draw general conclusions.

[SchumacherFTW]

First I've heard of Mario having bad reviews 

[Willowra]

70-80m OW 170-200m DOM & 370-400m WW total.

It won't lose money as each MCU movie is worth $300m to D+, TV & PVOD, that alone would recover its total cost of 300m

Edited September 27, 2023 by Willowra

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

First I've heard of Mario having bad reviews 

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_super_mario_bros_movie

 

59% 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

70-80m OW 170-200m DOM & 370-400m WW total.

It won't lose money as each MCU movie is worth $300m to D+, TV & PVOD, that alone would revover its total cost of 300m

 

Once again, math classes required. These are terrible legs which is impossible scenario in the double holiday season. Thanksgiving and then Xmas. The latter alone saved BPWF's face dom. 

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

Once again, math classes required. These are terrible legs which is impossible scenario in the double holiday season. Thanksgiving and then Xmas. The latter alone saved BPWF's face dom. 

80*2.5 same legs as WK

[JustLurking]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

Once again, math classes required. These are terrible legs which is impossible scenario in the double holiday season. Thanksgiving and then Xmas. The latter alone saved BPWF's face dom. 

Not really, they are rather normal legs for november since the weekdays suck balls. Wakanda is in that range too.

[Valonqar]

Than my bad cause I thought that WF did better.

 

Still WW total looks way off. It won't have shitty OS like TLM. 

[toutvabien]

18 minutes ago, Willowra said:

80*2.5 same legs as WK

If it is to open to just $70-80M, that would require pretty poor WoM, so why would its legs look like Wakanda Forever and not something like Eternals?

[Willowra]

5 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

If it is to open to just $70-80M, that would require pretty poor WoM, so why would its legs look like Wakanda Forever and not something like Eternals?

What would the WOM do if interest in the movie is low?

Edited September 27, 2023 by Willowra

[toutvabien]

2 minutes ago, Willowra said:

What would the WOM do if interest in the movie is low?

I really just don't see this opening to $70-80M with good reviews and WoM, I think that's the level where its opening could go if it gets Eternals/Quantumania level reviews or worse. So, if it opens on that range, it's not gonna leg it out like WF. Are you seriously thinking that even if this gets good buzz it's gonna do maximum $80M OW?

[Willowra]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Than my bad cause I thought that WF did better.

 

Still WW total looks way off. It won't have shitty OS like TLM. 

370-430m WW OK. Same Dom/OS ratio as Ant-Man3

[Willowra]

2 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

I really just don't see this opening to $70-80M with good reviews and WoM, I think that's the level where its opening could go if it gets Eternals/Quantumania level reviews or worse. So, if it opens on that range, it's not gonna leg it out like WF. Are you seriously thinking that even if this gets good buzz it's gonna do maximum $80M OW?

OW would matter most. If OW is around 80m it won't cross 500m & would struggle to cross even 400m WW even with good reviews.

[Squire]

39 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_super_mario_bros_movie

 

59% 

Critics are weird. I think too many set too high of a standard for this movie. It was good. They just wanted it to be Lego Movie or old Pixar good. 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

I really just don't see this opening to $70-80M with good reviews and WoM, I think that's the level where its opening could go if it gets Eternals/Quantumania level reviews or worse. So, if it opens on that range, it's not gonna leg it out like WF. Are you seriously thinking that even if this gets good buzz it's gonna do maximum $80M OW?

 

Willowra isn't objective about this movie but realistically reviews are not going to be bad since they were already overinflated for Ms Marvel aka the best reviewed MCU IP ever. Unpretentious movie with 3 diverse women teaming up to stop an alien girlboss with a help of cute kittens in a very reasonable all lean meat no fat running time is not going to be evicerated. They'll praise chemistry, charm, the cast especially Vellani, cute kittens and maybe say the movie should have been tad longer but otherwise was breezy fun with lots of heart. Think Dungeons and Dragons. It got strong reviews on charm and heart but unlike this movie it didn't come from a famous brand so people ignored it. So I wouldn't worry about reviews. There's no reason for AM3 ones. 

[ChipDerby]

27 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Willowra isn't objective about this movie but realistically reviews are not going to be bad since they were already overinflated for Ms Marvel aka the best reviewed MCU IP ever. Unpretentious movie with 3 diverse women teaming up to stop an alien girlboss with a help of cute kittens in a very reasonable all lean meat no fat running time is not going to be evicerated. They'll praise chemistry, charm, the cast especially Vellani, cute kittens and maybe say the movie should have been tad longer but otherwise was breezy fun with lots of heart. Think Dungeons and Dragons. It got strong reviews on charm and heart but unlike this movie it didn't come from a famous brand so people ignored it. So I wouldn't worry about reviews. There's no reason for AM3 ones. 

 

You can just say "MCU Barbie"

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

Once again, math classes required. These are terrible legs which is impossible scenario in the double holiday season. Thanksgiving and then Xmas. The latter alone saved BPWF's face dom. 

 

To be fair to the poster, you're assuming it holds the Christmas season.

 

The only reason Black Panther 2 held in last year's Xmas season as strongly as it did is b/c Disney dumped its other November later opener, Strange World, out of theaters and onto D+.  So, it puts all its chips on keeping BP2 in theaters to let it get that funding.

 

That may or may not happen with this year's supers/animated Disney November combo.

[Bob Train]

Yeah, it would have to be complete trash to not end up fresh. The average RT score has increased by about 10% since the late 2010s due to the induction of social media influencers into RT, and the legitimization of "funko critics".

 

People don't like admitting this but critics give extra points to movies based on whether or not they have a "diverse cast". We saw this earlier this year with Blue Beetle and stuff like Ghostbusters 2016 and the first Captain Marvel.

[ChipDerby]

8 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Yeah, it would have to be complete trash to not end up fresh. The average RT score has increased by about 10% since the late 2010s due to the induction of social media influencers into RT, and the legitimization of "funko critics".

 

People don't like admitting this but critics give extra points to movies based on whether or not they have a "diverse cast". We saw this earlier this year with Blue Beetle and stuff like Ghostbusters 2016 and the first Captain Marvel.

 

Nah

[toutvabien]

12 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Yeah, it would have to be complete trash to not end up fresh. The average RT score has increased by about 10% since the late 2010s due to the induction of social media influencers into RT, and the legitimization of "funko critics".

 

People don't like admitting this but critics give extra points to movies based on whether or not they have a "diverse cast". We saw this earlier this year with Blue Beetle and stuff like Ghostbusters 2016 and the first Captain Marvel.

Critic attitude towards MCU movies has shifted since the release of Captain Marvel. But even then, diversity is a plus but not nearly enough to give anything a pass. Eternals was the first rotten film in the MCU. Now, that had a lot of big swings and ambitions and it failed in the eyes of many. This does seem to have a more streamlined plot.