The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ZeroHour]

8 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Interesting that neither of the spots released today are like the leaked, longer one, with the voice over AND how Carol focused they are. I don't know how to read pre-sales in general, but we're in a kind of new era of Marvel movies getting more and more backloaded. What's actually crazy is how quickly that happened. Phase 4 carried on the goodwill and momentum of the previous saga and even earlier this year, Quantumania managed to open past $100M despite the worst reviews, reactions and buzz ever for a Marvel movie, causing it to lose steam even before release. The two subsequent films, installments of more popular sub-franchises, do no longer have that security. Even if they manage to replicate the late fan screening/great buzz of Guardians 3, The Marvels won't open much higher. It could act as a good building block to secure getting back to the kind of momentum they used to have. If the floor of Guardians 3 was already sub $90M, I wouldn't be too shocked if it's even lower for this one, despite my overall optimism for this film's performance. And yea, in the context of this film, a $75-80M opening would be no good news at all. And the floor can go lower for future releases, if that's the case.

 

If Marvel fails to build back momentum, I really don't see the next bunch of Avengers movies getting close to Age of Ultron numbers.

Hopefully they deep sixed that voiceover trailer. It had some charming moments but that voiceover gave it real Disney Channel original movie energy. The pivot to Carol makes sense and tells you that they already know that their original strategy was not working. They probably should have figured that out sooner and made her a heavier focus of the second trailer months ago though.

 

I think it can't be overstated how important Quantumania was. They positioned that film as the start of Phase 5 and the big launch (after the Loki soft launch) of the big villain of the multiverse saga. It was supposed to be the film that gave this saga shape and reassured people that Marvel knew what they were doing after a rocky Phase 4. It failed at both of those things and solidified the narrative that Marvel is in a creative rut. They're now going to need a string of creatively successful films to dig themselves out of that rut.

[DisposedData]

21 minutes ago, Maggie said:

One thing is for sure...the forum would be dead without Marvel bickering, so careful what you wish for lol

I don't think it would. We have had an exciting year without Marvel and DC.

[SpiderByte]

24 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

Hopefully they deep sixed that voiceover trailer. It had some charming moments but that voiceover gave it real Disney Channel original movie energy

As I pointed out before: that guy does voiceover for literally every trailer for every major blockbuster. People being outraged over him being in one for this was insane. It probably won't even be the last one this year.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

As I pointed out before: that guy does voiceover for literally every trailer for every major blockbuster. People being outraged over him being in one for this was insane. It probably won't even be the last one this year.

 

 

The problem wasn't that there was a voiceover it how it was implemented that was dumb.  "Get ready for...._____, ________, ______, etc." just reading the giant text that's on the screen like we are all idiots.  

[ZeroHour]

10 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

As I pointed out before: that guy does voiceover for literally every trailer for every major blockbuster. People being outraged over him being in one for this was insane. It probably won't even be the last one this year.

 

Everyone knows that guy does trailers. You're not breaking any news by telling people on a box office forum that. My point was that IMO it was bad. It must be exhausting to be overly defensive about every little thing.

[SpiderByte]

15 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The problem wasn't that there was a voiceover it how it was implemented that was dumb.  "Get ready for...._____, ________, ______, etc." just reading the giant text that's on the screen like we are all idiots.  

That's literally every trailer that guy does!

[MovieMan89]

For the record I’ve been saying sub 70 OW for this is very possible all year and given plenty reasons as to why. These presales make me think sub 50 though if reviews aren’t there. It really needs great reviews or it’s toast. Hopefully this finally settles the debate too that the first absolutely received a massive MCU momentum and EG boost at the time. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

In a worst case scenario though where this gets meh/poor reception, it could be a good barometer to see just how far sequels can drop in the post-covid era. My sneaking suspicions of -80%+ for Mufasa next year may be pretty doable… 

[Mr Terrific]

1 hour ago, ZeroHour said:

Hopefully they deep sixed that voiceover trailer. It had some charming moments but that voiceover gave it real Disney Channel original movie energy. The pivot to Carol makes sense and tells you that they already know that their original strategy was not working. They probably should have figured that out sooner and made her a heavier focus of the second trailer months ago though.

 

I think it can't be overstated how important Quantumania was. They positioned that film as the start of Phase 5 and the big launch (after the Loki soft launch) of the big villain of the multiverse saga. It was supposed to be the film that gave this saga shape and reassured people that Marvel knew what they were doing after a rocky Phase 4. It failed at both of those things and solidified the narrative that Marvel is in a creative rut. They're now going to need a string of creatively successful films to dig themselves out of that rut.

I 100% agree on AM3 being important on momentum. 
No doubt it was bad. I was hoping for the big AM finale with him getting a bigger stage, blah, blah. It did not work. 
I question why GOTG 3 wouldn’t counteract that some more than others think, but any good feels from BPWF doing pretty well we’re flattened. 

[MovieMan89]

Iman’s Ms Marvel character has deserved so much better. I would say maybe she’ll be the thing that saves this, but considering she couldn’t have been more charming in her show and still no one cared to watch, I don’t have much hope. 

[SpiderByte]

The only upside to this underperforming is that it hopefully means we never have to hear that horseshit about Marvel destroying cinema by "taking up screen" or taking box office from other movies ever again. Or at least till May.

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's gonna be a shocking, but not surprising open, the way it's going.  

 

When greenlit, Disney had to be thinking "the 1st opened to $153M - even if 10-20% of that was hype for Endgame, with ticket inflation, we could still be looking at close to the same opening weekend number...at worst, maybe it falls 10-20%, and we open between $125-$140M"...

 

That was the thinking in Dec 2022 around here, too, I think...

 

How far the supers fall of 2023 has brought our expectations.  Now, we'll be shocked, but not surprised, if this goes under 3 digits for OW...

 

Of course, how far under could increase our surprise level.

 

Although maybe we've reset expectations so low, this will surprise to the upside and sneak to $100M+...stranger things have happened this year...I don't expect it, but I'm open to a lot of supers opening weekend finishes this year...

 

I think we're headed back to what super hero movies did during the 2000's. When a 50m ow was a success and 90m was bonkers. We might get a few more real huge openings: deadpool3, secret wars if a certain 2 actors return for it , joker 2 might even be a dark horse and maybe the first x-men reboot if they pull it off but the days of super hero movies dominating are behind us.

Edited October 10, 2023 by eddyxx

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

I think we're headed back to what super hero movies did during the 2000's. When a 50m ow was a success and 90m was bonkers. We might get a few more real huge openings deadpool3, secret wars if a certain 2 actors return for it and maybe the first x-men reboot if they pull it off but the days of super hero movies dominating are behind us.

100% this. 50 OW will be the new “norm” for a cbm that isn’t building some degree of “event film” interest, with plenty potential for lower for the ones people outright don’t care about. We are officially done with “you get a 100+ OW and you get a 100+ OW AND YOU GET A 100+ OW!!” like it’s easy Oprah money in this genre. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by MovieMan89

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

100% this. 50 OW will be the new “norm” for a cbm that isn’t building some degree of “event film” interest, with plenty potential for lower for the ones people outright don’t care about. We are officially done with “you get a 100+ OW and you get a 100+ OW AND YOU GET A 100+ OW!!” like it’s easy Oprah money in this genre. 

Apart from the MCU, when was this ever a common thing for comic book films? Sure some films fit that target but the majority did not. And as for the MCU itself, even if The Marvels doesn’t get there they still had the last 7 movies hit over $100M OW.

[HummingLemon496]

Updating my worldwide total prediction to $380 million

 

It looks like $575 million was a highball

[SpiderByte]

12 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

I think we're headed back to what super hero movies did during the 2000's. When a 50m ow was a success and 90m was bonkers. We might get a few more real huge openings: deadpool3, secret wars if a certain 2 actors return for it , joker 2 might even be a dark horse and maybe the first x-men reboot if they pull it off but the days of super hero movies dominating are behind us.

I think we're well aways off from "50 mil is the ceiling" for the MCU

Edited October 10, 2023 by SpiderByte

[HummingLemon496]

$140M domestic, $190M OS, $330M WW take it or leave it

 

Captain Marvel through the Looking Glass

Edited October 10, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Maggie]

20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$140M domestic, $190M OS, $330M WW take it or leave it

 

Captain Marvel through the Looking Glass

Let's not overreact.

[SpiderByte]

Lol in the span of 14 minutes the guess dropped by 50 mil ww

[Maggie]

But you gotta admit, a domestic total UNDER the first one's OW would be a complete disaster. The fact thta some users are even thinking these numbers shows how much the brand is in trouble

Edited October 10, 2023 by Maggie