The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Firepower]

I don't know about Deadpool 3, I can see it doing between 800 and 900 mln without China which is solid, but nostalgia cameo fests losing their novelty and cbms dying one by one definitely don't help, it needs very strong hype.

While Joker was lighting in a bottle, from what I see they actually made a lot of smart decisions on a sequel and didn't take the original's success for granted. Casting Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, changing the genre to unexpected one. I can definitely see it staying flat from the original as long as it's well received and trailers are as great as the original's, it has this weird attraction factor and Gaga could deliver an extra pull. Hangover 2 had a significant increase after lighting in a bottle success of Hangover 1 despite much worse reception, so it's not like Phillips didn't have a situation like this before.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Firepower

[SpiderByte]

14 hours ago, Arlborn said:

The Marvels - 600M

Aquaman 2 - 850M

Deadpool 3 - 1.1B

Venom 3 - Sameish as Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Sameish as Cap 1

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Flop

ThunderBolts - Eternals 2.0

Joker 2 - 1.3B

Id go a bit lower on Aquaman and around 850 for Joker but I'd agree with most of these. Thunderbolts is kinda early to tell though.

Edited September 23, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Squire]

Not gonna get into the “did Endgame help the CM or not” debate. Perhaps the only way to show that is a big downturn for The Marvels. 
 

IMO, I think some level of superhero fatigue, post-COVID attendance, reduced China numbers for MCU films, and the general economic conditions will result in Marvels making at least 25% less than CM, but I wouldn’t expect an Alice in Wonderland 2 disaster. After all, even Ant-Man 3 made about $500M WW.

[HummingLemon]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Don't point out that Ant-Man 2 came out immediately after Endgame and did not see a similar huge boost they claim Captain Marvel got almost a full year after Infinity War came our

Unrelated to the main conversation l just wanna say that Ant-Man 2 had a pretty meh performance for coming out in between Infinity War and Endgame.

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Don't point out that Ant-Man 2 came out immediately after Endgame and did not see a similar huge boost they claim Captain Marvel got almost a full year after Infinity War came our

Ant-Man and the Wasp did receive a boost though. It did 25% more than the first Ant-Man did.

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home also received a boost, as it also did 25% more than Homecoming.

 

The reason why Captain Marvel received a boost greater %-wise than the other 2 is that it was teased in the post-credit scene of Infinity War, and was treated like essential viewing in the marketing of Endgame. The circumstances were different for Captain Marvel than they were for Ant Man 2.

 

 

 

[Bob Train]

The last 3 MCU movies sans Quantumania all fell into a predictable $750-$850m WW range.

 

All of them also had MCU fans predicting them to make a billion despite none actually coming close in the end. I expect Deadpool 3 to fall into that range, rather than breach $1b. 

 

Thunderbolts and Cap 4 will make around Quantumania numbers.

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp did receive a boost though. It did 25% more than the first Ant-Man did.

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home also received a boost, as it also did 25% more than Homecoming.

 

The reason why Captain Marvel received a boost greater %-wise than the other 2 is that it was teased in the post-credit scene of Infinity War, and was treated like essential viewing in the marketing of Endgame. The circumstances were different for Captain Marvel than they were for Ant Man 2.

 

Sure, but pretty much all sequels increased from the originals except for IM2/AoU.   

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp did receive a boost though. It did 25% more than the first Ant-Man did.

But if Captain Marvel was propelled by Infinity Wars post credits scene that much then it should have had a much higher jump than just that being so much closer

[Liiviig 1998]

Marvels  575M

Deadpool 3. 850M

Cap 4. 500-700M

VENOM 2.  450M

JOKER 2. 900-950M

Thunderbolts 450-600M

Madame web and kraven - who wants to watch  this .

 

 

[SpiderByte]

6 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Madame web and kraven - who wants to watch  this .

Heres the thing for me, is that Madame Web sounds great with the director, cast, the premise, but the second I saw who the writers were I lost all excitement. It seems like such a cool way to do it but man

[ChipDerby]

The Marvels will drop 17% from Captain Marvel domestic. The same drop as TDKR had from TDK. TDK opened huge due to the Joker card tease, and the death of Ledger (IW tease, Endgame upcoming). 

[Bob Train]

The Marvels - 490M

Aquaman 2 - 500M

Deadpool 3 - 770M

Venom 3 - 600M

Captain America 4 - 530M

Kraven - 120M

Madame Web - 130M

ThunderBolts - 470M

Joker 2 - 1.2B

[TMP]

20 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

The Marvels will drop 17% from Captain Marvel domestic. The same drop as TDKR had from TDK. TDK opened huge due to the Joker card tease, and the death of Ledger (IW tease, Endgame upcoming). 

Lmfao

[Bob Train]

Venom 3 will do well I think. Will be interesting to see what it does in China, as 1 was a huge hit there and 2 wasn't even released.

[Bob Train]

The difference between Captain Marvel and The Dark Knight is that people actually cared about The Dark Knight.

[HummingLemon]

34 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

The Marvels will drop 17% from Captain Marvel domestic. The same drop as TDKR had from TDK. TDK opened huge due to the Joker card tease, and the death of Ledger (IW tease, Endgame upcoming). 

Disagree. A ~35% drop like Wakanda Forever, Fallen Kingdom, and The Last Jedi sounds more reasonable. ~90-100 OW. ~250 total.

[HummingLemon]

The success of "Captain Marvel" and the potential box office performance of "The Marvels" can be influenced by various factors, including the context within the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). Here's an explanation of how the success of "Captain Marvel" was influenced by the hype surrounding "Avengers: Endgame" and why "The Marvels" might face different circumstances:

1. Introduction in "Avengers: Endgame": "Avengers: Endgame" was a highly anticipated and successful film that marked the conclusion of a major storyline within the MCU. It was released in 2019, just a couple of months before "Captain Marvel." In "Endgame," the character Carol Danvers, also known as Captain Marvel, played a significant role. Her brief appearance in "Endgame" generated curiosity and excitement among MCU fans about her character and backstory.

2. Post-Credits Scene: "Captain Marvel" featured a post-credits scene that teased her involvement in "Endgame." This scene further heightened anticipation for her standalone film.

3. Origin Story: "Captain Marvel" served as an origin story, introducing audiences to Carol Danvers and her transformation into Captain Marvel. Origin stories are often well-received by audiences as they provide essential background information about a character.

4. Female-Led Superhero Film: "Captain Marvel" was the first MCU film to feature a female superhero as the lead character. This was a groundbreaking moment in the MCU and the superhero genre, and it attracted attention and support from a wide audience.

5. Positive Reviews and Word of Mouth: "Captain Marvel" received generally positive reviews from both critics and audiences. Positive word of mouth can significantly contribute to a film's sustained success at the box office.

6. Timing and MCU Continuity: The release of "Captain Marvel" was strategically timed, allowing it to fit into the broader narrative of the MCU. The film's connection to the MCU storyline and the anticipation for "Endgame" contributed to its success.

Now, regarding "The Marvels" and why it might face different circumstances:

1. Different Context: "The Marvels" is a sequel to "Captain Marvel" and is expected to continue Carol Danvers' story while also introducing new characters. Unlike "Captain Marvel," which benefited from the post-credits scene in "Endgame" and was an origin story, "The Marvels" enters the MCU with a different context.

2. Post-Endgame Era: "Avengers: Endgame" marked the conclusion of a significant storyline in the MCU. The hype and anticipation surrounding the film were unprecedented. "The Marvels" is released in a post-Endgame era, which means it may not benefit from the same level of hype generated by an ensemble Avengers film.

3. Audience Expectations: Audience expectations for "The Marvels" may differ from those for "Captain Marvel." While fans of the character will likely be interested, the film may need to rely more on its own storytelling and marketing to generate excitement.

In summary, while "Captain Marvel" benefited from the context of "Avengers: Endgame" and its status as an origin story, "The Marvels" faces a different set of circumstances. Its success will depend on its own merits, including its storytelling, marketing, and audience reception. The MCU has a strong track record, but each film is unique, and box office performance can vary based on multiple factors.

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

The Marvels - 490M

Aquaman 2 - 500M

Deadpool 3 - 770M

Venom 3 - 600M

Captain America 4 - 530M

Kraven - 120M

Madame Web - 130M

ThunderBolts - 470M

Joker 2 - 1.2B

Deadpool 3 decreasing from Deadpool 2 with Hugh Jackman and other X-men legacy characters finally in the MCU makes no sense. Unless you're expecting the movie to have toxic WOM. Did people forget MoM opened to $450M WW due to rumored cameos? Cameos in the MCU absolutely sales, and there isn't data to suggest otherwise. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Porthos]

People keep regurgitating the same points over and over and over again so I thought I'd try to bring in something new.  It is plausible, if not likely, that, with all due respect to Five Nights at Freddy's, The Marvels is gonna be the first major Hollywood film since Barbenheimer to get an honest-to-goodness star rollout and press tour should both strikes be over by mid-Oct. 

 

It also might benefit from just general good vibes if the GA/Twitterati are happy with the resolution(s) of the dual strikes (*knocks on wood that a potentially soon-to-be-concluded WGA deal leads to a semi-swift SAG deal*) and just want to go out and support The First Big New Thing entertainment wise out of Hollywood.

 

I get that "Twitter isn't Real Life" and I'm a subscriber to the theory in large.  But "in large" ≠ "completely" as I do think buzz is buzz and vibes can indeed be part of buzz, and we as a board discount social media buzz at our peril.  

 

Do think there are a few other things that are — likely?  Plausible?  Let's go with plausible — plausible to happen which could also help The Marvels.  As an example, reception of Loki S2, I think could help as I really am becoming a proponent of "Happy Fandom = Fandom More Inclined To Support The Next Big Thing", again, if at the edges.  

 

I know this rankles some here, but I've been watching fandoms for a looooooooong time and... Well if it really doesn't sit well just consider "Fandom Vibes" to be part of "buzz", as the more I look at it, the more I tend to think that vibes are a decent chunk of the almost-impossible-to-define-anyway concept of "buzz".

 

A lot of this is nearly impossible to prove, especially with hard data.  As a data leaning dude, I fully acknowledge that upfront.  But, as heretical as it might be for someone with my posting habits to say... data isn't everything and not every thing can be quantified in advance or in hindsight.  Probably one of the reasons why the argument about Captain Marvel and Endgame has gone on and on and on.... and on and on and on (and I refuse to contribute to).

 

Anyway, points above aside, the biggest contributor to the success or failure of The Marvels is gonna be the quality of the film itself. And that is only gonna be answered in the fullness of time.

[HummingLemon]

If only there was a timeline in which Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, and Quantumania were good