The Fabelmans | Steven Spielberg's autobiographical coming-of-age-drama | Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch, and DAVID LYNCH | November 11, 2022 (limited), November 23 (wide)

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 hours ago, Ithil said:

I have not seen it yet but I did hear from someone who did that Spielberg isn't all that kind to himself on a personal level in the film. Much less a film about how great he is.

The criticism that Spielberg just made this movie to showcase how awesome he is as a director, overall, that's a very uncharitable view of things IMO. Though without getting into spoilers, I can see what they mean? I just happen not to agree.

[lorddemaxus]

I watched the ending to AI last night like 10 times after a party and watching it after watching this movie made it hit so much harder.

[Kalo]

On 12/13/2022 at 11:45 PM, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The per theater averages of this fall’s awards hopefuls have mostly been awful. It's less the first weekend, than what happens when it goes wider. Ideally, these movies used to make enough money to hang around in hundreds of theaters for months, but now the business just isn't there. Compare the opening of The Post (Spielberg's last movie to get a platform release):

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Dec 22, 2017	19	$526,011		9	$58,446	$526,011	1
Dec 29, 2017	24	$561,080	+7%	9	$62,342	$1,760,121	2
Jan 5, 2018	15	$1,698,027	+203%	36	$47,167	$3,847,683	3
Jan 12, 2018	2	$19,361,968	+1,040%	2,819	$6,868	$23,851,205	4
Jan 19, 2018	4	$11,716,960	-39%	2,851	$4,110	$44,758,362	5
Jan 26, 2018	5	$9,107,141	-22%	2,640	$3,450	$58,793,064	6
Feb 2, 2018	5	$5,218,122	-43%	2,462	$2,119	$67,202,632	7
Feb 9, 2018	8	$3,631,998	-30%	1,865	$1,947	$72,968,518	8
Feb 16, 2018	10	$1,988,634	-45%	1,050	$1,894	$76,598,006	9
Feb 23, 2018	13	$1,242,239	-38%	795	$1,563	$78,890,240	10
Mar 2, 2018	14	$1,069,501	-14%	671	$1,594	$80,527,737	11
Mar 9, 2018	17	$328,610	-69%	278	$1,182	$81,168,402	12

 

The per theater average for The Post only got as low as $1200-ish dollars the weekend after that year's Oscars.

 

Here's how The Fabelmans has started out:

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Nov 11, 2022	-	$161,579		4	$40,395	$161,579	1
Nov 18, 2022	-	$89,733	-44%	4	$22,433	$309,655	2
Nov 25, 2022	7	$2,261,110	+2,420%	638	$3,544	$3,463,236	3
Dec 2, 2022	8	$1,269,515	-44%	638	$1,990	$5,534,961	4
Dec 9, 2022	7	$1,172,230	-8%	973	$1,205	$7,322,196	5

 

Already, the per theater average for The Fabelmans is at $1200 just 5 weekends in. If a movie has a weak showing in 600 theaters, it rarely improves much in 2000-3000 theaters. Starting out in thousands of theaters has also gone badly for "grown-up movies" lately (She Said, for one). So now, studios are cutting their losses and putting stuff on VOD/streaming earlier, which IMO doesn't help the attendance situation.

 

I think a big chunk of the audience for "Oscar bait" used to hear about those movies through the pop culture grapevine, eventually, which was fine back when more people were showing up to begin with and theatrical windows were longer. Now they can be only 3 weekends, some movies are streaming exclusives or day-and-date, or maybe someone heard about a thing in passing, but they're not sure if it's a limited series or a movie. These people never really looked up movie news, see little movie advertising anymore, and have no idea what's coming out or when, unless it's a big blockbuster. It's a cluster and the industry has no idea if this part of the business will ever recover.

 

 

 

The problem imo isn't has nothing to do with the post-pandemic fears. it is the over saturation of and wide availability of movies on streaming and or releasing them too soon on streaming platforms for FREE. the fix is simple. stop releasing everything on VOD 20 days after it's in theaters and NOTHING should be on streaming planforms any less then 60 days after it is in theaters. yes for a time the films would not make as much money. but in time, while as a whole they may not reach pre-pandemic levels, people will adapt to it and start actually going to see these movies. 

 

Going to the movies in a theater, is one of my favorite pastimes and I don't want to only see $200M+ blockbusters when I go. Hollywood is being way to knee-jerk reaction, the BO wasn't going to recover over night after the pandemic. and they are really shooting themselves in the foot by dropping everything on streaming. 

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

 

The problem imo isn't has nothing to do with the post-pandemic fears. it is the over saturation of and wide availability of movies on streaming and or releasing them too soon on streaming platforms for FREE. the fix is simple. stop releasing everything on VOD 20 days after it's in theaters and NOTHING should be on streaming planforms any less then 60 days after it is in theaters. yes for a time the films would not make as much money. but in time, while as a whole they may not reach pre-pandemic levels, people will adapt to it and start actually going to see these movies. 

 

Going to the movies in a theater, is one of my favorite pastimes and I don't want to only see $200M+ blockbusters when I go. Hollywood is being way to knee-jerk reaction, the BO wasn't going to recover over night after the pandemic. and they are really shooting themselves in the foot by dropping everything on streaming. 

I can't love this post enough! Thank you, I feel exactly the same way on all counts. It starts with studios putting in effort again to get more product out. I know some of it is covid rescheduling and what not but the studios collectively laid a turd this holiday season with their output. Absolutely pitiful. Almost no excuse for the November schedule looking like it did this year.

 

Next year is a step in the right direction though. Hopefully audiences reward studios for it. If they don't, I hope studios just stick with it. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, Kalo said:

 

The problem imo isn't has nothing to do with the post-pandemic fears. it is the over saturation of and wide availability of movies on streaming and or releasing them too soon on streaming platforms for FREE. the fix is simple. stop releasing everything on VOD 20 days after it's in theaters and NOTHING should be on streaming planforms any less then 60 days after it is in theaters. yes for a time the films would not make as much money. but in time, while as a whole they may not reach pre-pandemic levels, people will adapt to it and start actually going to see these movies. 

 

Going to the movies in a theater, is one of my favorite pastimes and I don't want to only see $200M+ blockbusters when I go. Hollywood is being way to knee-jerk reaction, the BO wasn't going to recover over night after the pandemic. and they are really shooting themselves in the foot by dropping everything on streaming. 

I want theaters to thrive with all kinds of movies succeeding, but this fall really has me wondering if we will ever get back there. Even if all theatrical releases did have a 70-day exclusive window again, what if prestige movies still don't recover? Habits change, genres can shrink/die off in popularity over time. Musicals used to win the year all the time. Maybe every Oscar drama in the pipeline now is getting converted into a limited series. Someone said that about The Fabelmans in the weekend thread. I liked the movie, but kind of see what they mean.

 

Glass Onion got released in under 700 theaters for a week at Thanksgiving and performed really well, even when it will be on Netflix by Christmas. But that seemed like fun, so a much easier sell than most Oscar hopefuls. The Fabelmans has humor but isn't really a comedy.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

apparently this is also underperforming on vod

[John Marston]

On 12/20/2022 at 11:19 AM, interiorgatordecorator said:

apparently this is also underperforming on vod

 

because it is dull and nobody cares

[elcaballero]

On 12/20/2022 at 9:19 AM, interiorgatordecorator said:

apparently this is also underperforming on vod

Just curious, any solid estimates on this, or is it just based on rankings?

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

On 12/14/2022 at 4:45 AM, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The per theater averages of this fall’s awards hopefuls have mostly been awful. It's less the first weekend, than what happens when it goes wider. Ideally, these movies used to make enough money to hang around in hundreds of theaters for months, but now the business just isn't there. Compare the opening of The Post (Spielberg's last movie to get a platform release):

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Dec 22, 2017	19	$526,011		9	$58,446	$526,011	1
Dec 29, 2017	24	$561,080	+7%	9	$62,342	$1,760,121	2
Jan 5, 2018	15	$1,698,027	+203%	36	$47,167	$3,847,683	3
Jan 12, 2018	2	$19,361,968	+1,040%	2,819	$6,868	$23,851,205	4
Jan 19, 2018	4	$11,716,960	-39%	2,851	$4,110	$44,758,362	5
Jan 26, 2018	5	$9,107,141	-22%	2,640	$3,450	$58,793,064	6
Feb 2, 2018	5	$5,218,122	-43%	2,462	$2,119	$67,202,632	7
Feb 9, 2018	8	$3,631,998	-30%	1,865	$1,947	$72,968,518	8
Feb 16, 2018	10	$1,988,634	-45%	1,050	$1,894	$76,598,006	9
Feb 23, 2018	13	$1,242,239	-38%	795	$1,563	$78,890,240	10
Mar 2, 2018	14	$1,069,501	-14%	671	$1,594	$80,527,737	11
Mar 9, 2018	17	$328,610	-69%	278	$1,182	$81,168,402	12

 

The per theater average for The Post only got as low as $1200-ish dollars the weekend after that year's Oscars.

 

Here's how The Fabelmans has started out:

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Nov 11, 2022	-	$161,579		4	$40,395	$161,579	1
Nov 18, 2022	-	$89,733	-44%	4	$22,433	$309,655	2
Nov 25, 2022	7	$2,261,110	+2,420%	638	$3,544	$3,463,236	3
Dec 2, 2022	8	$1,269,515	-44%	638	$1,990	$5,534,961	4
Dec 9, 2022	7	$1,172,230	-8%	973	$1,205	$7,322,196	5

 

Already, the per theater average for The Fabelmans is at $1200 just 5 weekends in. If a movie has a weak showing in 600 theaters, it rarely improves much in 2000-3000 theaters. Starting out in thousands of theaters has also gone badly for "grown-up movies" lately (She Said, for one). So now, studios are cutting their losses and putting stuff on VOD/streaming earlier, which IMO doesn't help the attendance situation.

 

I think a big chunk of the audience for "Oscar bait" used to hear about those movies through the pop culture grapevine, eventually, which was fine back when more people were showing up to begin with and theatrical windows were longer. Now they can be only 3 weekends, some movies are streaming exclusives or day-and-date, or maybe someone heard about a thing in passing, but they're not sure if it's a limited series or a movie. These people never really looked up movie news, see little movie advertising anymore, and have no idea what's coming out or when, unless it's a big blockbuster. It's a cluster and the industry has no idea if this part of the business will ever recover.

 

 

 

To be fair, THE POST had Hanks and Streep, who are still reliable BO draws. THE FABLEMANS has no one in that calibre.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

19 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

To be fair, THE POST had Hanks and Streep, who are still reliable BO draws. THE FABLEMANS has no one in that calibre.

True, Universal would have been foolish to expect $80 million from The Fabelmans, but it just got over $15m domestic on Monday (Day 74). It's Spielberg and won TIFF, you would think that would get it to $20m even in a depressed climate. But maybe the accolades made the studio feel like they didn't have to try with the ads/trailers. IMO The Fabelmans should have been sold more as a family/coming-of-age drama, being seen as a celebration of movies hurt it with audiences.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Michael Gary Scott]

this might be one of the most boring movies I've ever seen. 

[lorddemaxus]

Started watching Dawson's Creek and the Michelle Williams and Spielberg connection here is kinda funny

[John Marston]

thank God this went home empty handed. One of the most boring movies of recent times

[35MM-18]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

thank God this went home empty handed. One of the most boring movies of recent times

Would've preferred it winning Score over All Quiet on the Western Front, to be honest.

[TheDude391]

We're gonna look back post Spielberg's passing and shake our heads at our past selves for totally dismissing his late career output. Those anonymous oscar ballots talking about Fabelmans spoke volumes, been a while since I've seen something just completely fly over people's heads like that; totally missing the point. They got filtered!