2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

Speaking of animation, what's your prediction regarding Strange World? 

 

Disney+ 

 

[El Squibbonator]

I think it's still going to theaters. Raya and the Last Dragon and Encanto both did, even when contemporary Pixar movies were shunted onto Disney+. And Lightyear is getting a theatrical release too. 

[poweranimals]

I'm probably gonna get a few of these wrong but here are my predictions:

 

1. Avatar 2

2. Doctor Strange 2

3. Jurassic World 3

4. Black Panther 2

5. Thor 4

6. The Batman

7. Lightyear

8. Black Adam

9. Aquaman 2

10. Top Gun 2

Edited February 1, 2022 by poweranimals

[Noiret Jak]

Doctor Strange will be behind Jurassic World.

[El Squibbonator]

Yeah, Doctor Strange isn't enough of an A-list character to be that big, pandemic or no. 

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Look at this Entertainment Weekly summer box office prediction article from April 2008

 

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
$355.9 million
After all these years, will audiences be interested in some old guy in a fedora? Uh, yeah.

2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
$310.8 million
The first movie made $292 million, and that was without a hottie prince in the lead role.

3. Hancock
$280.4 million
Will Smith. Superhero. July 4 weekend. ‘Nuff said.

4. WALL-E
$280.3 million
If a Pixar film about a French rat can gross more than $200 mil, we suspect this adorkable robot is platinum-plated.

 

5. Iron Man
$262.7 million
He’s no Spidey, but he gets a bump for being the first movie of the summer. And that suit has fanboys near fainting.

6. The Dark Knight
$255.0 million
Batman Begins made $205 mil, and the power of Heath Ledger’s last performance, as the Joker, should take this higher.

7. Kung Fu Panda
$224.6 million
Never underestimate the kid-pleasing power of cute animals with attitude. Even Madagascar scored $193 mil.

8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
$176.5 million
The last one made more than $200 million, but it’s been seven years. And this one doesn’t have The Rock.

9. The Incredible Hulk
$147.2 million
No, the buzz ain’t great, but even Ang Lee’s much-maligned version earned $132 mil.

10. Tropic Thunder
$142.6 million
It’s got a killer Tom Cruise cameo and will be summer’s top comedy. But an R rating limits grosses.

 

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Reality:

(3rd of 2008) Crystal Skull- 317m

(15th of 2008) Prince Caspian- 141m

(4th of 2008) Hancock- 227m

(5th of 2008) Wall-E- 223m

(2nd of 2008) Iron Man- 318m

(1st of 2008) The Dark Knight- 533m

(6th of 2008) Kung Fu Panda- 215m 

(25th of 2008) The Mummy- 102m

(17th of 2008) The Incredible Hulk- 134m

(23rd of 2008) Tropic Thunder- 110m

 

In honor of 2008 EW, I'm gonna make an equivalent prediction. Now, it looks like they were just ranking summer films and not all of 2008 so we have to keep that in mind. I'll consider summer to be anything from May through August. 

1. Thor: Love and Thunder 
$457.2M

2. Jurassic World 
$433.8M

3. Lightyear
$408.4M

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
$396.1M

5. Black Adam
$271.4M

6. Minions: Rise of Gru

$230.7M 

 

7. Top Gun: Maverick
$223.1M

8. DC League of Super Pets
$180.3M

9. Nope
$153.9M

10. Elvis
$112.4M 


 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

These are my predictions:

 

1. “Avatar 2 “ - 800 million $

2. “Lightyear” - 455 million $

3. “Jurassic World:Dominion” - 375 million $

4. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” - 335 million $

5. “The Batman” - 305 million $

6. “Thor: Love and Thunder” - 300 million $

7. “Aquaman 2” - 285 million $

8. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse” - 280 million $

9. “Doctor Strange” - 275 million $

10. “The Flash” - 250 million $

11. “Minions 2” - 225 million $

12. “Black Adam” - 215 million $

13. “Morbius” - 195 million $

14. “Fantastic Beasts” - 175 million $

15. “DC League of Super Pets” - 165 million

16. “Puss in the Boots 2 “ - 155 million $

17. “Sonic 2” - 150 million $

18. “Mario” - 140 million $

19. “Elvis” - 130 million $

20. “Top Gun:Maverick” - 125 million $

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

These are my predictions:

 

1. “Avatar 2 “ - 800 million $

2. “Lightyear” - 455 million $

3. “Jurassic World:Dominion” - 375 million $

4. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” - 335 million $

5. “The Batman” - 305 million $

6. “Thor: Love and Thunder” - 300 million $

7. “Aquaman 2” - 285 million $

8. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse” - 280 million $

9. “Doctor Strange” - 275 million $

10. “The Flash” - 250 million $

11. “Minions 2” - 225 million $

12. “Black Adam” - 215 million $

13. “Morbius” - 195 million $

14. “Fantastic Beasts” - 175 million $

15. “DC League of Super Pets” - 165 million

16. “Puss in the Boots 2 “ - 155 million $

17. “Sonic 2” - 150 million $

18. “Mario” - 140 million $

19. “Elvis” - 130 million $

20. “Top Gun:Maverick” - 125 million $

 

 

 

Some of these are…

 

Interesting. 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

53 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Some of these are…

 

Interesting. 

You think I overestimated some?

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

1 hour ago, PenguinXXR said:

Some of these are…

 

Interesting. 

I think that's DOM only

 

19 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

You think I overestimated some?

I'd be VERY surprised to see some of those numbers. Morbius almost at 200MM would be....interesting. Highly unlikely that Spiderverse outsgrosses Strange 2 also, but I mean we are all predicting. There's no right or wrong answer.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

You think I overestimated some?

I def think you underestimated some. You’ve got Thor L&T under Ragnarok. Doctor Strange under Spider-Verse. BP2 doing less than half of BP1. 
 

All of these would be pretty unheard of for the MCU. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

TOP 10 OF SUMMER PREDICTIONS:

 

1. Jurassic World- 425m

I think the returning cast can boost it over the second one.

 

2. Doctor Strange- 415m

Around Civil War and Iron Man 3 is a huge boost.

 

3. Lightyear- 400m

Felt like an overestimate but Toy Story 4 did 434m, Incredibles 608m, Dory 486m and Toy Story 3 415m. It's higher profile than the other Pixars in between: Onward, Coco, Good Dinosaur. With summer release, should do at least Inside Out's 356m.

 

4. Thor- 390m

Higher than Ragnarok and around Guardians 2 range seems fair?

 

5. Minions- 220m

About a 100m difference from Minions 1 is about right. (Pets 2 fell the same and Despicable Me 3 was off like 70m to Minions)

 

6. Black Adam- 155m

Shazam did 140m. In last decade, Rock hasn't had a film hit that benchmark except Jumanji, Hobbs and Shaw (173m) and San Andreas (155m). This excludes Fast and Furious which should also exclude Hobbs. Maybe Jungle Cruise could have topped it without Disney+ and COVID (116m) but this range feels solid for a non Batman/Superman/Wonder Woman DC character? Late July and August gives it a lot of space, though

 

7. Nope- 125m

I was thinking 150m but that might be unattainable for an original film post COVID. 150-170 was as high as they got in 2019 (Knives Out, Us.. Hollywood did like 140). July is also crowded. But Peele is still a major draw as director

 

8. Top Gun- 110m

Too much of a wild card. 30-40m Memorial Day should get it around here which is a solid guess with Cruise nostalgia. 

 

9. Superpets- 105m

Another wild card. Of course higher than the measly 29m Teen Titans made. I don't think Lego Batman's 175m is possible either. Maybe around Lego Movie 2? What other comps?

 

10. Elvis- 100m

Betting on any adult movie nowadays will be a risk but Rocketman did 96m summer 2019. Add Hanks and the flashiness of Baz's filmmaking, similar numbers are attainable as counterprogramming. 

 

WATCH OUT:

Bullet Train- bad release date will limit breakout potential which is disappointing because fun action concept + Brad Pitt is a good sell.

Black Phone- 40-50m Blumhouse range

Man From Toronto- Kevin Hart is one of the only comedy draws. Woody Harrelson is a strong co-star. August is desolate which has helped action comedies like Hitman's Bodyguard. 60-70m

 

(I have The Batman at 400-425m pre-summer)

[YM!]

Summer predictions:

1 - JWD: 425m

2 - Love and Thunder - 410m

3 - Multiverse of Madness - 385m

4 - Black Adam - 190m

5 - Minions 2 - 185m

6 - Maverick - 165m

7 - Nope - 145m

8 - Pets - 120m

9 - Elvis - 110m

10 - Bullet Train - 105m

 

Not giving a prediction for Lightyear as it is obviously going directly to Disney+, which is what Chapek hinted at in the call yesterday especially if Turning Red does good.

[Maggie]

I feel Black Phone will surprise with over 60M

[Krissykins]

I can see Doctor Strange benefiting massively from No Way Home.
 

Under $350m would be a shock. 

[YM!]

I still expect MoM to be more like IM3/CW than say $500m+. While yes it has a lot of hooks and yes some cameos will provide fan-service, I expect it to be more frontloaded than NWH as due to the release and I don’t think the hook for it as strong as NWH. It’ll be the smallest of the MCU films this year (barring Panther 2 being pushed back and replaced with Quantumania or something). I’m also curious on how they handle Wanda as that could mess with reception.

[wintersoldier2021]

Lol @ the thought of strange under Thor 

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

Lol @ the thought of strange under Thor 

I mean one has the Guardians team (an actually proven box office success unlike Wanda or the multiverse concept (NWH was big more so because all the Spider-Men and old villains being back)), summer days to prevent it from harsher drops, a main Avenger and a higher point to start aka Thor Ragnarok than Strange 1 did.

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, wintersoldier2021 said:

Lol @ the thought of strange under Thor 

 

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I mean one has the Guardians team (an actually proven box office success unlike Wanda or the multiverse concept (NWH was big more so because all the Spider-Men and old villains being back)), summer days to prevent it from harsher drops, a main Avenger and a higher point to start aka Thor Ragnarok than Strange 1 did.

I fully expect Strange to come in under Thor.

[BruiseCruise]

My top 10 for 2022 domestically:

 

1. Avatar 2  - $680m

2. BP Wakanda Forever - $635m

3. Jurassic World:Dominion - $525m

4. DS MoM: - $450m

5. The Batman - $410m

6. Thor: Love and Thunder - $375m

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse - $315m

8. Lightyear - $300m

9. Black Adam - $255m

10. The Flash - $200m

 

I think Aquaman will get pushed to 2023