IronJimbo Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said: Looking over the people who made the predictions gives you some insight into their predictive abilities. A lot of the folks who have been saying Avatar won't make over a billion are the same people who said TGM wouldn't do over 300M. I think you're being too nice here. I can see why someone wouldn't think it's going to make $1b, they don't have the the absolute belief (like we do) in the quality of the film. However going as low as $500m domestic is borderline trolling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomCruiseTop Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I think you're being too nice here. I can see why someone wouldn't think it's going to make $1b, they don't have the the absolute belief (like we do) in the quality of the film. However going as low as $500m domestic is borderline trolling This may be the first time in my life I have ever been accused of being 'too nice'. Thanks Jimbo, that gave me my yearly chuckle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, IronJimbo said: Daaaamn Juby, $620m in the first 2 weeks? Some others in here are putting lower than that for the whole run. Avatar has the same release date as Rogue One had 6 years ago. I think it would open even 40-50% higher than R1 and it will have better drops through first 2-3 weeks (and later). Final? I think $1.1bn for now. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) 3 Scenarios i see for Avatar 2 at the moment (all personal opinions ofc and only DOM projections). For the record, i am rooting for this movie, especially for the simple reason that i love to see giant breakouts. Scenario 1: The Bad One Avatar 2 is either not a great movie or it is but is not received very well by the GA because of plot/character reasons. This would still mean a 500M - 550M gross DOM imo. The Christmas Holiday is just too lucrative and even if the films quality is not that good, visually it will definetly be amazing, so many people will just be there for the spectacle alone. If TROS can gross 515M in December/January, i fail to see a reason why this coudnt as well. Likelyhood: Probably under 10%. Cameron is too good of a director to let this movie be not atleast highly entertaining. Scenario 2: The Realistic One (again, my opinion) Avatar 2 will be received well by critcs and audiences and will have very strong legs troughout January. I can see a 680 - 750M DOM gross in that case. Likelyhood: For me 60%. Scenario 3: The Opimistic One Avatar 2 manages to do what few other movies could: Following up a box office phenomenon with another box office phenomenon. Like Top Gun Maverick is showing us right now, the formula is actually easy on paper: Make a movie that appeals to all demographics, make it highly entertaining, exciting and visually impressive and make a good storyline with great character interactions/arcs. At the same time, while easy on paper, executing this formula on film is really, really hard. Even absolute Masterpieces fail at one or multiple categorys and thus never become megagrossers. But Avatar 2 definetly has a shot at it. If it indeed manages to hit the zeitgeist again, i can see 850 - 900M. Im not on the 1B DOM train, but No Way Home grossed 805M just last Winter and again, if Cameron truly delivers, i fail to see why this movie cant do that as well, especially if were beeing optimistic like with this Scenario 3. Likelyhood: For me 30%. So yes, i think Avatar 2 has a better chance at 850M+ DOM than grossing 550M total or under. Edited June 20, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said: 3 Scenarios i see for Avatar 2 at the moment (all personal opinions ofc and only DOM projections). For the record, i am rooting for this movie, especially for the simple reason that i love to see giant breakouts. Spoiler Scenario 1: The Bad One Avatar 2 is either not a great movie or it is but is not received very well by the GA because of plot/character reasons. This would still mean a 500M - 550M gross DOM imo. The Christmas Holiday is just too lucrative and even if the films quality is not that good, visually it will definetly be amazing, so many people will just be there for the spectacle alone. If TROS can gross 515M in December/January, i fail to see a reason why this coudnt as well. Likelyhood: Probably under 10%. Cameron is too good of a director to let this movie be not atleast highly entertaining. Scenario 2: The Realistic One (again, my opinion) Avatar 2 will be received well by critcs and audiences and will have very strong legs troughout January. I can see a 680 - 750M DOM gross in that case. Likelyhood: For me 60%. Scenario 3: The Opimistic One Avatar 2 manages to do what few other movies could: Following up a box office phenomenon with another box office phenomenon. Like Top Gun Maverick is showing us right now, the formula is actually easy on paper: Make a movie that appeals to all demographics, make it highly entertaining, exciting and visually impressive and make a good storyline with great character interactions/arcs. At the same time, while easy on paper, executing this formula on film is really, really hard. Even absolute Masterpieces fail at one or multiple categorys and thus never become megagrossers. But Avatar 2 definetly has a shot at it. If it indeed manages to hit the zeitgeist again, i can see 850 - 900M. Im not on the 1B DOM train, but No Way Home grossed 805M just last Winter and again, if Cameron truly delivers, i fail to see why this movie cant do that as well, especially if were beeing optimistic like with this Scenario 3. Likelyhood: For me 30%. So yes, i think Avatar 2 has a better chance at 850M+ DOM than grossing 550M total or under. Cameron absolutely understands why the first film was so groundbreaking and he will capture the same feeling of wonder everyone got with the first film. A good post Dino, I would play around with change the numbers obviously. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomCruiseTop Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said: Likelyhood: For me 30%. So yes, i think Avatar 2 has a better chance at 850M+ DOM than grossing 550M total or under. What do you think happens to the forum if A2 does do over a billion domestic? Will IronJimbo finally be given a crown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 1 hour ago, TomCruiseTop said: What do you think happens to the forum if A2 does do over a billion domestic? Will IronJimbo finally be given a crown? I think he and a few others who post daily on the Avatar 2 thread would actually explode and i mean that literally. Also, as a more serious answer, woudnt that be incredible to witness? To follow a movie doing 1 BILLIOn domestic alone? Im all for it happening. But i still dont think its possible even under optimal circumstances. But ofc id be happy to be wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheddar Please Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said: 3 Scenarios i see for Avatar 2 at the moment (all personal opinions ofc and only DOM projections). For the record, i am rooting for this movie, especially for the simple reason that i love to see giant breakouts. Scenario 1: The Bad One Avatar 2 is either not a great movie or it is but is not received very well by the GA because of plot/character reasons. This would still mean a 500M - 550M gross DOM imo. The Christmas Holiday is just too lucrative and even if the films quality is not that good, visually it will definetly be amazing, so many people will just be there for the spectacle alone. If TROS can gross 515M in December/January, i fail to see a reason why this coudnt as well. Likelyhood: Probably under 10%. Cameron is too good of a director to let this movie be not atleast highly entertaining. Scenario 2: The Realistic One (again, my opinion) Avatar 2 will be received well by critcs and audiences and will have very strong legs troughout January. I can see a 680 - 750M DOM gross in that case. Likelyhood: For me 60%. Scenario 3: The Opimistic One Avatar 2 manages to do what few other movies could: Following up a box office phenomenon with another box office phenomenon. Like Top Gun Maverick is showing us right now, the formula is actually easy on paper: Make a movie that appeals to all demographics, make it highly entertaining, exciting and visually impressive and make a good storyline with great character interactions/arcs. At the same time, while easy on paper, executing this formula on film is really, really hard. Even absolute Masterpieces fail at one or multiple categorys and thus never become megagrossers. But Avatar 2 definetly has a shot at it. If it indeed manages to hit the zeitgeist again, i can see 850 - 900M. Im not on the 1B DOM train, but No Way Home grossed 805M just last Winter and again, if Cameron truly delivers, i fail to see why this movie cant do that as well, especially if were beeing optimistic like with this Scenario 3. Likelyhood: For me 30%. So yes, i think Avatar 2 has a better chance at 850M+ DOM than grossing 550M total or under. This is a really well thought out take, I would have to agree honestly, if this movie manages to pull a repeat of Top Gun with general audiences then 1B could be on the table (1B with this level of inflation would be around Endgame's gross in 2019 dollars). Three points I would make: - After a lot of box office underperformances this year, and given NWH and TGM's overperformances, it's clear that the audience demand for a $2B blockbuster are there, it's just that the offerings have been subpar. I'm hoping at least one other film this year besides for TGM can rectify this. - Inflation means that in reality, we should be seeing an explosion in BO performance, akin to the spate of new OW records during the 2001-2002 period. DS2 and JWD should have both done $200+ OW and $550+ DOM even with performances on par with 2019's mid-tier blockbusters like Captain Marvel and Toy Story 4. The fact that they only managed early 2010s level blockbuster performances with 30%+ inflation since then indicates a lot of demand is being left on the table. - The original Avatar achieved cultural prominence due to it's technical brilliance and a simple plot that foreign audiences could connect with easily. Nonetheless, I would say story wise, it is by far Cameron's weakest work yet. The sequel will have to do a lot of heavy-lifting in terms of better fleshing out the plot and characters (Not that Cameron hasn't managed this before - twice in fact), but if this film is to connect with general audiences on the same level as TGM, I expect to see a lot more from the movie than just the vague scenery and themes that we've been getting from the trailers. Edited June 20, 2022 by Cheddar Please 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 (edited) I wonder where is the-numbers updated tracking for 2022? What Bruce Nash's "model" has to say about future box office surprises? Edited June 21, 2022 by Juby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Caballo Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 Looking at the schedule, here's something I just noticed. November has 4 weekends. And Disney has a movie in every single one. November 4th - Amsterdam November 11th - Black Panther November 18th - The Menu Thanksgiving - Strange World Is this normal? Is Disney maybe trying to just release and get rid of some of these movies? Or is this a actual strategy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 four. billion. dollars 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 On 11/26/2021 at 4:46 PM, Maggie said: UPDATE: Omicron has arrived! No movie over 1B in 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 On 11/14/2021 at 2:03 PM, Grebacio said: 1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $605M 2. Avatar 2 - $520M 3.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $470M 4. Jurassic World Dominion - $430M 5. Thor Love and Thunder - $402M 6. The Batman - $385M 7. Mario - $360M 8 .Lightyear - $350M 9. The Flash - $308M 10. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse - $285M 11. Mission Impossible 7 - $240M 12. Black Adam - $233M 13. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $220M 14. Turning Red - $216M 15. Top Gun Maverick - $208M 16. Searcher Clade - $186M 17. John Wick 4 - $184M 18. Morbius - $176M 19. Uncharted - $172M 20. Puss in Boots 2 - $168M I think that Aquaman 2 will move to 2023, but if it stays in December 2021, I predict it will make 355M Now that the second half of the year started, I wanted to look back at my predictions that I made last November. Other than The Batman, my predictions pretty much sucked lol. For the rest of the year, I feel confident with the numbers I predicted for Black Panther, Black Adam and Thor, and on the other hand, I think both Puss in Boots and Avatar will have better numbers (my updated predictions are 205M and 612M respectively), while I'll be shocked if Strange World (formerly known as Searcher Clade) ends up grossing half of those 186M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViktorLosAngeles Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) My predictions for the rest of 2022: 1. Avatar 2 - $675M 2. Thor Love and Thunder - $450M 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $375M 4. Black Adam - $200M 5. Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $190M 6. Puss in Boots 2 - $185M 7 .DC League of Super-Pets - $130M 8. Bullet Train - $115M 9. Nope - $110M 10. Creed 3 - $100M Bonus: 11. "Halloween Ends" - $95-110M 12. Don't Worry Darling - $85-100M (maybe I'm overestimating this one, but the demand looks more than decent) 13. The Fabelmans - $75-100M 14. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $70-100M Do you guys think any other film stands a chance of grossing more than $100M? Maybe Babylon in wide release? Edited July 1, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Bros can gross 100m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmbbox2390 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said: My predictions for the rest of 2022: 1. Avatar 2 - $675M 2. Thor Love and Thunder - $450M 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $375M 4. Black Adam - $200M 5. Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $190M 6. Puss in Boots 2 - $185M 7 .DC League of Super-Pets - $130M 8. Bullet Train - $115M 9. Nope - $110M 10. Creed 3 - $100M Bonus: 11. "Halloween Ends" - $95-110M 12. Don't Worry Darling - $85-100M (maybe I'm overestimating this one, but the demand looks more than decent) 13. The Fabelmans - $75-100M 14. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $70-100M Do you guys think any other film stands a chance of grossing more than $100M? Maybe Babylon in wide release? I really don’t get your Black Panther: Wakanda Forever prediction. We have never seen a MCU film drop that low from its predecessor. In fact, the only MCU film to drop from its prequel film was Avengers: Age of Ultron, which dropped 26%. That BP2 46% drop is bigger than Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and The Dark Knight Rises. IMO, I say wait til we at least get some footage from the film before we make predictions. Because I believe some are basing their predictions on behind the scenes drama that will have no affect on its box office prospects. Marketing and reactions will. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Fall predictions SEPT: Salem's Lot- 75m Don't Worry Darling- 90m (could go even higher?) Bros- 100m Smile- 35m OCT: Lyle- BOMB Halloween Ends- 105m Black Adam- 160m Ticket To Paradise- 65m (higher?) NOV: Amsterdam- 40m Black Panther- 525m Fabelmans- 70m Strange World- TBD. Let's go like 150? Idk... DEC: Avatar 2- 600m Shazam- 150m Puss in Boots- 115m I Wanna Dance With Somebody- 60m Man Called Otto- 30m Others: Babylon- 85m Banshees of Iniershin- 10m Bones and All- 15m The Menu- 25m See How They Run- 10m Spoiler Alert- 12m TAR- 10m Till- 8m Women Talking- 20m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Shazam- 150m The first did $140M in April 2019 (right in between Captain Marvel and Endgame sucking out the superhero air.) With December legs and the last 18 months of ticket inflation, if it doesn't go over $200M I would be a bit shocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said: The first did $140M in April 2019 (right in between Captain Marvel and Endgame sucking out the superhero air.) With December legs and the last 18 months of ticket inflation, if it doesn't go over $200M I would be a bit shocked. You're correct and this is a great point but I will always take the under on DC lol. I know Shazam was generally well-received but still not sure it developed enough of a universal fanbase for Avatar and holiday spillover? It's still a sequel, unlike Aquaman, in 2018. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: You're correct and this is a great point but I will always take the under on DC lol. I know Shazam was generally well-received but still not sure it developed enough of a universal fanbase for Avatar and holiday spillover? It's still a sequel, unlike Aquaman, in 2018. If it can't reach those numbers it would be a disappointment given the fact that it was pretty well received. Then again, I've already been disappointed at the box office several times this year so why should Shazam treat me any differently 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
