2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Grebacio]

On 11/14/2021 at 2:03 PM, Grebacio said:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $605M
2. Avatar 2 - $520M
3.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $470M
4. Jurassic World Dominion - $430M
5. Thor Love and Thunder - $402M
6. The Batman - $385M
7. Mario - $360M
8 .Lightyear - $350M
9. The Flash - $308M
10. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse - $285M
11. Mission Impossible 7 - $240M
12. Black Adam - $233M
13. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $220M
14. Turning Red - $216M
15. Top Gun Maverick - $208M
16. Searcher Clade - $186M
17. John Wick 4 - $184M
18. Morbius - $176M
19. Uncharted - $172M
20. Puss in Boots 2 - $168M

I think that Aquaman 2 will move to 2023, but if it stays in December 2021, I predict it will make 355M

Updated predictions:

1. Black Panther Wakanda Forever - 605M

2. Avatar 2 - 530M

3. Doctor Strange itMoM - 508M

4. Jurassic World Dominion - 486M

5. Thor Love and Thunder - 402M

6. The Batman - 376M

7. Mario - 360M

8. Lightyear - 336M

9.Black Adam - 233M

10. Top Gun Maverick - 224M

11. Shazam Fury of the Gods - 218M

12. Sonic 2 - 202M

13. Minions The Rise of Gru - 186M

14. Puss in Boots The Last Wish - 180M

15. Nope - 170M

 

 

 

[Juby]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Where do you have it ending up? 1 was at 283 by january 1

It depends on how great the movie is going to be. If it's great (as all previous Cameron sequels) I think it might have a shot to beat TFA as #1 all-time domestic. Worst case scenario - $625m.

[Juby]

Updated the-numbers prediction:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251920830-2022-market-prediction-multiverse-movie-movements-reduce-annual-prediction-to-6-5-billion

 

 

My updated counter-predictions (I added BP2 cause it looks like Disney won't delay the movie until 2023 after all):

 

Avatar: The Way of Water $500m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m

Thor: Love and Thunder $410m

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $405m (-$45m)

The Batman $369m (-$6m)

Jurassic World: Dominion $340m

Lightyear $320m

Top Gun: Maverick $290m (+$80m)

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

 

[jedijake]

I just can't imagine how they can do post-production on Black Panther 2 in 7 months. Unless they did a bunch of post production in the fall/winter when filming was in hiatus due to .....Leticia Wright things.

[TomCruiseTop]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

I just can't imagine how they can do post-production on Black Panther 2 in 7 months. Unless they did a bunch of post production in the fall/winter when filming was in hiatus due to .....Leticia Wright things.

Easy. Have you seen the final fight in the first one? that's how.

[Wormow]

3 hours ago, jedijake said:

I just can't imagine how they can do post-production on Black Panther 2 in 7 months. Unless they did a bunch of post production in the fall/winter when filming was in hiatus due to .....Leticia Wright things.

 

You think when they took a break from filming that the entire post production crew also stopped working on the movie? lol

[jedijake]

35 minutes ago, Wormow said:

 

You think when they took a break from filming that the entire post production crew also stopped working on the movie? lol

I'm not sure. I don't know how those things work in all honesty. If the post crew worked during that time, then the total amount of time spent on post would be fine. Depends on what was and wasn't filmed at that point. We can only assume it will all be fine and there's no reason to think otherwise at the moment.

 

I had a dream recently that there was an actual black panther in the movie which was Chadwicks' BP sort of reincarnated as an animal spirit. Just a weird dream, but then I realized that black panthers lived in the jungles if India lol.

[MattW]

2021

July 47% of the 2016-2019 mean

August 47.9%

Sept 59.5%

Oct 88.7%

Nov 52.3%

Dec 82.1%

 

2022

Jan 42.6%

Feb 47.8%

Mar 63.7%

Apr 69.3%

May 76.9%

 

 

Oct and Dec last year were so good that the average for the 2nd of the year was just over 60% of the previous average. Jan-Feb pretty weak but Mar-Apr-May solid trend up. With Top Gun over performing June should be fine even if JWD disappoints, likely 70% or more of the previous average which would put the first half of the year again just over 60% of the 2016-2019 avg. 

Maybe 60% is the new normal.

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by MattW

[IceFire9yt]

2 hours ago, MattW said:

2021

July 47% of the 2016-2019 mean

August 47.9%

Sept 59.5%

Oct 88.7%

Nov 52.3%

Dec 82.1%

 

2022

Jan 42.6%

Feb 47.8%

Mar 63.7%

Apr 69.3%

May 76.9%

 

 

Oct and Dec last year were so good that the average for the 2nd of the year was just over 60% of the previous average. Jan-Feb pretty weak but Mar-Apr-May solid trend up. With Top Gun over performing June should be fine even if JWD disappoints, likely 70% or more of the previous average which would put the first half of the year again just over 60% of the 2016-2019 avg. 

Maybe 60% is the new normal.

 

While the box office has come back for big tent poles, the same isn't true for smaller movies.  The number of new releases so far this year is less than half of what it was in 2019, similarly the number of movies appearing on the box office chart is less than half of what it was.

[Juby]

From Mojo:

There is no doubt that the box office is flying high after a stratospheric $127 million three-day and $161 million four-day holiday opening for Top Gun: Maverick, which was the biggest non-superhero debut since 2019 and nearly double the previous best Tom Cruise opening. The three-and-a-half decade in the waiting sequel also delivered a new record for Memorial Day weekend, beating Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Despite these highs, the lack of new releases is still holding back the box office, which is why May, despite being the second highest grossing month since the pandemic began with an overall box office of $786 million, was the lowest grossing May since 2006.

 

Lowest grossing May since 2006? I guess they don't count May 2020 and May 2021, aren't they?

 

I think June will be the biggest month since the pandemic began and one of the best Junes in a while. Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Lightyear - these 3 films alone will make $650m easily.

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Film vacates its september 16 spot

 

Which movie is going to take advantage of those 2 free months? anything that could move up?

Hope its not NWH again 

Edited June 16, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret Film vacates its september 16 spot

 

Which movie is going to take advantage of those 2 free months? anything that could move up?

Hope its not NWH again 

I was looking forward to movie but Lionsgate is a mess right now. 16th now will only have The Woman King from Sony. Maybe Avatar moves up. Don't Worry Darling will probably stay at 23rd and build off the TIFF buzz. 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I think it's clear that "Top Gun" will be this summer's box office winner.

[jedijake]

4 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I think it's clear that "Top Gun" will be this summer's box office winner.

There's a solid shot that it will be the biggest of the entire year. It seems certain to be #1 or #2 (depending on AWOW).

 

I  have a feeling that Black Panther 2 will be "Rise of Skywalker-ed". Or was that Dominion?

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I think "Black Panther 2" will make significantly less than the first one. Not many people around me who liked the first one really care, and I don't see any buzz yet. I know it's 5 months away, but still. I'm sensing a 2023 push back. Even without it 300-350 million $ will be it's maximum.

 

But if "Top Gun" ends up being the domestic winner of 2022, that would be the biggest surprise of all time for me, and I've been tracking box office since 2001. I don't remember anything similar happening.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if "Thor" overperforms but I still don't see it hitting $600 million.

 

Now that I looked at the release schedule, pretty much "Avatar 2" could be the only "threat". But will it follow the path of the first one, and can they pull "Spider Man" numbers because it's going to be released during the mid December?

Edited June 19, 2022 by ViktorLosAngeles

[jedijake]

7 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I think "Black Panther 2" will make significantly less than the first one. Not many people around me who liked the first one really care, and I don't see any buzz yet. I know it's 5 months away, but still. I'm sensing a 2023 push back. Even without it 300-350 million $ will be it's maximum.

 

But if "Top Gun" ends up being the domestic winner of 2022, that would be the biggest surprise of all time for me, and I've been tracking box office since 2001. I don't remember anything similar happening.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if "Thor" overperforms but I still don't see it hitting $600 million.

 

Now that I looked at the release schedule, pretty much "Avatar 2" could be the only "threat". But will it follow the path of the first one, and can they pull "Spider Man" numbers because it's going to be released during the mid December?

No 2023 pushback. There's no place to put it. We have people who are hating on Leticia Wright, the inevitable rush job of writing and the worse rush job for post-production. No time for reshoots.  And then there's the large demand for reshooting. This is not to mention that it will be a Black Panther movie without Black Panther. You will also get the fringe group review bombing from those who will hate that it is all female centered.

 

Not sure about $300-$350 million. It should be more than that because of having two holidays during it's run. But $400-$450 million sound reasonable. That's still a HUGE drop from the first (bigger than from AOU from Avengers1). But quite possibly a drop similar as TFA to TLJ. It sucks because Ryan and Kevin probably didn't want it happening that way. This was Chapek and the execs decision to rush it out. Not even give it a few more months and launch it on the same weekend as the first, exactly 5 years later.

 

ight here we've saw more Avatar 2 discussion BEFORE its own teaser than BP2 discussion overall,

 

That said, TG2 will be flirting with $575-$600 million.

[Juby]

On 6/19/2022 at 2:27 PM, jedijake said:

That said, TG2 will be flirting with $575-$600 million.

 

After this weekend ($45 million!!) it is more like $605-640 million.

 

My updated prediction for 2022 (+$200 million domestic):

 

Top Gun: Maverick $625m (+$335m) 

Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) (+$120m) 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m

Thor: Love and Thunder $450m (+$40m)

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $415m (+$10m)

Jurassic World: Dominion $380m (+$40m)

The Batman $369.3m

Lightyear $320m 

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Juby

[LegendaryBen]

21 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

After this weekend ($45 million!!) it is more like $605-640 million.

 

My updated prediction for 2022 (+$200 million domestic):

 

Top Gun: Maverick $625m (+$335m) 

Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) (+$120m) 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m

Thor: Love and Thunder $450m (+$40m)

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $415m (+$10m)

Jurassic World: Dominion $380m (+$40m)

The Batman $369.3m

Lightyear $320m 

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

 

Great predictions. I'm hoping the best for Minions 2. Pre sales are off to an okay start. While it won't open bad like Lightyear, I wouldn't be surprised if this had tons of walk-ups. I'm also hoping BPWF will gross like the first. TGM has had a fantastic run.

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, Juby said:

 

After this weekend ($45 million!!) it is more like $605-640 million.

 

My updated prediction for 2022 (+$200 million domestic):

 

Top Gun: Maverick $625m (+$335m) 

Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) (+$120m) 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m

Thor: Love and Thunder $450m (+$40m)

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $415m (+$10m)

Jurassic World: Dominion $380m (+$40m)

The Batman $369.3m

Lightyear $320m 

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

 

 

Daaaamn Juby, $620m in the first 2 weeks? Some others in here are putting lower than that for the whole run.

[TomCruiseTop]

42 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Daaaamn Juby, $620m in the first 2 weeks? Some others in here are putting lower than that for the whole run.

Looking over the people who made the predictions gives you some insight into their predictive abilities. A lot of the folks who have been saying Avatar won't make over a billion are the same people who said TGM wouldn't do over 300M. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by JamesCameronScholar