Dune OS Thread: DESERT POWER 400.2M WW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (292.3M OS)

[charlie Jatinder]

42 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

This is not going to make more than 300mil, is it? 

So far its likely but if US legs as TSS then could miss. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Issac Newton]

10 hours ago, Valonqar said:

@Issac Newton Do you know what's Dune reception in Japan? Are legs possible? 

OW : ¥148M (~$1.3M) / 91K attendees (Sat-Sun) : 5th

WOM : 4/5

Leg can be confirmed after reports of Actual arrives at Morning. Expectations are little lower than Blade Runner 2049

Edited October 18, 2021 by Issac Newton

[titanic2187]

DUNE

Warner Bros.

Before it hits North America, China, the UK, Korea, Brazil and Mexico (among others) next session, Warner Bros/Legendary’s Dune added $8.5M this weekend on 5,240 screens in 36 markets, including openings in Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Greece. The offshore total is now $129.3M with a great 36% drop from last session.

 

In like-for-likes and versus other pandemic titles, Dune is running 8% above Tenet, 62% above Shang-Chi, 68% over Black Widow and 93% ahead of Godzilla Vs Kong. Compared to Denis Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049, Dune is 89% higher.

The IMAX total is $11M, or 9% of the running international cume. In Japan, 37 IMAX screens grossed $550K — indexing an incredible 31%. The overall launch in Japan was $1.8M, ranking No. 3 and roughly on par with The Suicide Squad while above Interstellar (+6%) and Arrival (+38%). Indonesia bowed to $321K, coming in 61% ahead of Black Widow and Jungle Cruise, 191% above The Suicide Squad and 245% over Tenet.

The Top 5 markets to date are France ($26.2M), Russia ($20.2M), Germany ($17.5M), Spain ($8.6M) and Italy ($8M).

[eridani]

300 million is very likely at this point, I'd say. With 350 still plausible, though very much dependent on NA and China performance.

There should be at least 10 to 15 more million to squeeze out of the markets that it's currently playing in, for 140-145 mill in total.

Out of the medium size markets still not opened in, something in between of Alita and BR2049 numbers could be expected.

20 million for UK, 9 million for Australia, 8 mill for Japan, 5 million each for South Korea, Brazil and Mexico. 

So that's 193-198 million.

NA seems to be on track to open around 35-ish million. Assuming same legs as WW1984 that'd translate to 98 million. (HBOMax factor being similar, though Dune has been getting better reviews than WW84) 

China presales are tracking a bit above BR2049 but not by much. But even with a bad case prognosis of just 15 million the whole tally estimate stands at 305-310 million, give or take.  

If NA manages to open in the 40-ish mill range or if legs are even slightly better than WW1984, and if China manages to reach just low 20s, then the tally might get close to 350. 

 

Of course, Alita was generally seen as an inadequate result even with a 400 million worldwide gross on a similar production budget (and perhaps even smaller marketing budget) so...

 

[Gavin Feng]

3 hours ago, eridani said:

300 million is very likely at this point, I'd say. With 350 still plausible, though very much dependent on NA and China UK performance.

 

I did what I had to.

[Starphanluke]

33 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I did what I had to.

Yeah, China's performance is a lost cause at this point lmao. Here's hoping for at least $15m.

[charlie Jatinder]

Looked up China sales, $300M is safe. I am seeing $220-230M without China. China probably $25M if legs are same as BR2049.

 

US should very least do $60M I guess.

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looked up China sales, $300M is safe. I am seeing $220-230M without China. China probably $25M if legs are same as BR2049.

 

US should very least do $60M I guess.

Yeah, I would think $60m (around what SS did in August) to be the minimum for US, but we will see. 

 

$300m WW would be somewhat respectable (with clear potential for growth in US). Will come down to HBO Max streaming numbers at that point.

[Issac Newton]

Monday (Oct 10/18)

Dune (Japan) : $265K /$2.3M (Est. Value) :3rd

 

¥700-¥800M (~$6.1-$7M) finals for Japan. If legs are well than will try a ¥1000M/¥1500M (although, stats and analysis says impossible). Although, poor start and Western Release was prominently suffering in my country for last two years excluding recently released NTTD and 2021 Year Top Imported Film F9

Edited October 18, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Valonqar]

Thanks for Japan updates and perspective! 

[Issac Newton]

8 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

OW : ¥148M (~$1.3M) / 91K attendees (Sat-Sun) : 5th

WOM : 4/5

Leg can be confirmed after reports of Actual arrives at Morning. Expectations are little lower than Blade Runner 2049

OW: ¥203,854,150 /127,879 attendees (3-days)

[Issac Newton]

Spain WK : €255K /€7.15M (Est.)

 

[Issac Newton]

Italy (Mon) : €19.4K /€6.783M

[Elessar]

According to Deadline in like for like markets it's running 89% ahead of BR2049 and that almost hit $300m worldwide so how could it possibly miss $300m? Easy-peasy i say.

 

EDIT:

For some reason i though BR2049 did $290m but it actually did $260m. Dune should still comfortably hit $300m unless it flops domestically.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Elessar

[vale900]

 

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, vale900 said:

 

Huh, interesting to see the jump in expectations. Did they open more 2D showings? I wonder how Chinese audiences will react to the movie. I'm not super familiar with how Hollywood movies tend to leg in China--let's say it opens in the $20-$25m range, what sort of final would we be looking at? What was BR2049's multiplier there?

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

I'm not super familiar with how Hollywood movies tend to leg in China--let's say it opens in the $20-$25m range, what sort of final would we be looking at? What was BR2049's multiplier there?

 

BR2049 ended up with just over a 1.5x multiplier in China due to bad WOM.

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, vale900 said:

 

Well that would be very nice, hoping audiences like It 

[Issac Newton]

Dune's rating standing at 7.9 (~10K) on Douban

 

Anticipating Fans : ~222K at 20:56 CST via Maoyan

Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Dune's rating standing at 7.9 (~10K) on Douban

Seems... average? Or is that a bad score? I get the various ratings there mixed up.