NWH Prediction Contest/Game: DOM and Weekend Ranks. Deadline Dec 19 11:59 Pacific

[Legion Again]

 

Well, we’re capping off a dull BO year with a bang that’s got everyone excited and producing some lively debates. With such exciting expected BO runs comes a flurry of activity and prediction, some friendly competition in the forms of clubs for bragging rights — and even the occasional contest or two for some modest prizes. The main festivities on dec 16-20 are already good and covered by @Cap’s OW contest  (if you’re somehow reading this and hadn’t seem that one yet, go check it out!). A contest which, wise to the powers and sorcery of the 2021 buzz thread, locked previews before NWH sales blew the hinges off even the most optimistic of predictions.  
 

But as we’ve gained (some) clarity on what kind of kickoff to expect, more discussion and disagreement turns to that other half of the box office equation — just how well can this thing do after those first 3 days, anyway? Especially with the inherent tension between the good legs that can come from the holiday season, and the front loading risks that can come from huge fan buzz. @Multiverse of XXR and I each had some interest in contests exploring the later(/full) parts of the run, so here we are with a double header.   
 

Predict the Multiverse (Part One)  (50 points)

This one is nice and easy — where will NWH ultimately end up on the domestic all-time record books? Ties here are pretty likely, so we’ll use gross to tiebreak as needed. However, the gross only matters as a tiebreak — if the actual is, say, 937M, than a guess of 1st place+1B (here’s looking at @nguyenkhoi282) would beat a submission of 2nd place+936M, because the actual result was 1st place.
 

Winner gets a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.
 

Editor’s note: I do NOT, personally, recommend predicting 1st place 😛 
 

Username
DOM rank
DOM gross

Predict the Multiverse (Part Two) (66 points)

This one is a bit more of a deep dive. For each weekend whose records are tracked by Box Office Mojo, predict where NWH’s corresponding weekend will rank.

• 2nd weekend = 11
• 3rd weekend = 10
• 4th Weekend = 9
• 5th Weekend = 8
• 6th Weekend = 7
• 7th Weekend = 6
• 8th Weekend = 5
• 9th Weekend = 4
• 10th Weekend = 3
• 11th Weekend = 2
• 12th Weekend = 1

 

For a total of 66 points. 

 

We’ll have cumulative standings develop after each of the weekend results if you want to follow along (or of course you can just put this out of your mind after submission and hope to get a ping for winning like 5 months later, whatever suits your style).

 

 Winner gets wins a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.

 

Username
Weekend	Predicted Rank
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

 

Technical note: Feel free to supply grosses if it’s more convenient and they’ll be converted automatically.
 

Combining the Multiverse

 

It’s uhh… it’s the sum of people’s scores from the two parts we just talked about above. No extra bells and whistles, just good ole addition. 
 

Winner gets a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.  
 

Which brings us to SCORING:

 

Tl;dr of scoring — the closer your prediction is to what actually happens, the better you’ll score! 

The longer answer:

 

Spoiler

“Closer” is slightly more complicated with ranks than just subtracting, and we need to easily combine some likely actuals in the single digits with some in the triple digits, so proportionality is key here. On any given weekend (or overall DOM) your score is equal to the smaller of [your prediction&the actual rank] divided by the larger. Some quick examples:

you predict a 3rd place OW, the actual is 5th, that’s 3/5=60% (decent)

You predict a 5th place OW, the actual is 3rd, that’s 3/5=60% (same distance)

You predict a 3rd place 12th weekend (the legs  ) and the actual is 200th, that’s 3/200=1.5% (not so great bob)

You predict a 200th place 12th weekend , the actual is 200th place, and that’s 200/200=100% (great job hitting that one on the bullseye!)

 

Multiplied by 50, 12, 11, 7, 1, etc depending on how important that particular prediction was.

Deadline:

 

• THE DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION ON BOTH PARTS IS SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2021 @ 11:59PM PST.  

 

Other miscellaneous rules and info:

• All Submissions MUST BE sent into me or @Multiverse of XXR via PM or posted in this thread.  No Telegram PMs.
• All Submissions are LOCKED by their deadline.  No late entries.  No edits.  Before the deadline, you can edit your submission as many times as you want.

 

• Any exact ties (after explicit tiebreaks) will be broken by your handy dandy google random number generator. This should only come up if two people give the exact same DOM gross tiebreaker or submit identical weekend predictions, so I’d be surprised, but just to cover our bases fully.
   
• Users can enter any and/or all of the parts and be eligible to win the associated prizes. In particular, if you just want to drop a domestic gross off the top of your head, that will make you fully eligible for the first part of the contest.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

I will play but not participate in the contest…

 

Username	(something) XXR
DOM rank	3
DOM gross	$774,251,903

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[LPLC]

Username	LPLC
DOM rank	11
DOM gross	$580,000,000

[cannastop]

 

Username	cannastop
DOM rank	11th
DOM gross	$602,550,000

 

Username	cannastop
Weekend	Predicted Rank
1	4th
2	5th
3	8th
4	18th
5	24th
6	90th
7	100th
8	135th
9	155th
10	190th
11	220th
12	250th

 

 

@Product Driven Legion

For BOM's 3rd weekend, it includes American Sniper, which was its first wide weekend. Does that affect anything?

 

I'd guess we'd go strictly by BOM's rankings.

Edited December 18, 2021 by cannastop

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

For BOM's 3rd weekend, it includes American Sniper, which was it's first wide weekend. Does that affect anything?

 

I'd guess we'd go strictly by BOM's rankings.

Yeah. Unfortunately both Mojo and the numbers handle movies that opened limited and then expand wide in a kind of silly way (imo) for weekend records. I think Frozen is another high profile movie that benefits. We’re just using the BOM lists for scoring, anything else would be way too complex and harder for people to cross reference.

[Legion Again]

 

Username	Legion
DOM rank	4th
DOM gross	$720,720,720

I’ll get initial weekends in a bit later. Planning to keep track of scores for myself and multiverse of Xxr, but skip over us as far as prizes go.

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

 

 

Username	Legion
DOM rank	4th
DOM gross	$720,720,720

I’ll get initial weekends in a bit later. Planning to keep track of scores for myself and multiverse of Xxr, but skip over us as far as prizes go.

Still out of your own Avatar club huh?

[TomCruiseTop]

Username	JamesCameronScholar
DOM rank	3rd
DOM gross	$840,666,120

 

[Legion Again]

By the way, if people prefer to just input grosses for the weekends I’m happy to convert that into ranks on our end.  

[baumer]

baumer

#57

Total domestic gross:  342,557,997

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, baumer said:

baumer

#57

Total domestic gross:  342,557,997

 

To preempt all of the (really unnecessary, and kinda gross, IMO) dog piling* that is going to occur, I'll just say that unless our tracking of pre-sale tickets is off by an unimaginable degree, that you are going to be very pleasantly surprised when you see the preview number for NWH, never mind the actual OW.

* Y'all already chased away Tele with your last utterly unnecessary dog pile, I have no wish to see it happen again. 

 

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

To preempt all of the (really unnecessary, and kinda gross, IMO) dog piling* that is going to occur, I'll just say that unless our tracking of pre-sale tickets is off by an unimaginable degree, that you are going to be very pleasantly surprised when you see the preview number for NWH, never mind the actual OW.

* Y'all already chased away Tele with your last utterly unnecessary dog pile, I have no wish to see it happen again. 

 

 

Tracking will be off.  The pandemic is going to keep people away still and I just don't see it doing anything near what you  guys do.  But isn't it fun to have one "get off my lawn" old member of the forums telling all of you youngins that you are wrong?   

 

😃

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

To preempt all of the (really unnecessary, and kinda gross, IMO) dog piling* that is going to occur, I'll just say that unless our tracking of pre-sale tickets is off by an unimaginable degree, that you are going to be very pleasantly surprised when you see the preview number for NWH, never mind the actual OW.

* Y'all already chased away Tele with your last utterly unnecessary dog pile, I have no wish to see it happen again. 

 

We shouldn’t dog pile, but Tele’s number was either trolling or completely disregards what’s actually happening in favor of a narrative they’ve put in their head that doesn’t match the real world. 
 

I won’t even reply or react to Baumer’s but it’s the same thing here. At worst this number will fall in 10 days.  If NWH really takes off it could go in 6.

[baumer]

No reason to think that this is going to do anything more than the last Spiderman.  Take away a few mill because of the pandemic.  

 

And this is strictly about domestic, isn't it?

 

And you guys didn't chase Tele away.  He said to me that he really has no interest in any of the Spider-man movies so why get into a war of words with those of you who like to get into jousts.  

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

No reason to think that this is going to do anything more than the last Spiderman.  Take away a few mill because of the pandemic.  

 

And this is strictly about domestic, isn't it?

 

And you guys didn't chase Tele away.  He said to me that he really has no interest in any of the Spider-man movies so why get into a war of words with those of you who like to get into jousts.  

I mean ok if we just ingnore all the data that says completly otherwise then yeah sure...at this point your denial just doesnt make  sense , the data doesnt support your claims. The  numbers that you listed above are completly toast

Edited December 11, 2021 by john2000

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

No reason to think that this is going to do anything more than the last Spiderman.  Take away a few mill because of the pandemic.  

 

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

I mean ok if we just ingnore all the data that says completly otherwise then yeah sure...

^^ This. The data itself says it’s going to be bigger. 

[baumer]

And I'm not against this movie in any way.  I enjoyed both of the Holland Spider-man films, quite a bit.  I enjoyed the hell out of IW and EG.  I'm just not convinced that we are out of the pandemic yet and this means that mega grossing films aren't going to come back yet.  Me saying it will "only" do about 340 mill is not a sleight against it.  

[john2000]

I am all for different points, but at this point this is plain stupidity even if NWH , falls of a cliff like eternals 300 mill dom is toast.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Tracking will be off.  The pandemic is going to keep people away still and I just don't see it doing anything near what you  guys do.  But isn't it fun to have one "get off my lawn" old member of the forums telling all of you youngins that you are wrong?   

 

😃

 

For the record, I thought previews would be in the high twenties/low thirties before pre-sales actually started.

 

Actual already purchased ticket sales that I can verify with my own two eyes show that I was ever so slightly off. 

 

To put this in Old Man On Porch speak that we are both very familiar with and to channel the no-longer-with-us-on-this-board BKB:  The Parking Lots are packed with nary a tumbleweed to be seen.

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by john2000