The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/8/2022 at 5:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

Thursday(169 showings): 5415(+407)/42996

0.335x NWH Day 3 (16.75M)

 

0.505x Batman Final (10.91M)

0.165x NWH Final (8.25M)

 

Friday(279 showings): 2477(+253)/71512

0.233x NWH Day 3(16.76M)

 

0.218x Batman Final (7.64M)

0.080x NWH Final (5.75M)

 

Saturday(288 showings): 1224(+229)/71920

0.247x NWH Day 3 (18.25M)

 

0.112x Batman Final (4.85M)

0.040x NWH Final (2.96M)

 

Sunday(265 showings): 246(+58)/67700

0.259x NWH Day 3 (16.62M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-25 Thursday(169 showings): 5881(+466)/42996

0.548x Batman Final (11.84M)

0.179x NWH Final (8.95M)

 

T-26 Friday(279 showings): 2751(+274)/71512

0.251x Batman Final (8.79M)

0.080x NWH Final (6.40M)

 

T-27 Saturday(288 showings): 1382(+158)/71920

0.126x Batman Final (5.45M)

0.040x NWH Final (3.34M)

 

T-28 Sunday(265 showings): 330(+84)/67700

 

Forgot to add in the Tuesday showings to the final Batman Thursday numbers last time.

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/8/2022 at 5:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

Thursday(204 showings): 12760(+611)/29926 ATP: $15.24

0.559x NWH Day 3 (27.95M)

 

0.598x Batman Final (12.92M)

0.329x NWH Final (16.45M)

 

Friday(280 showings): 9600(+742)/41170 ATP: $15.28

0.517x NWH Day 3 (37.19M)

 

0.332x Batman Final (11.62M)

0.225x NWH Final (16.18M)

 

Saturday(286 showings): 9300(+856)/42330 ATP: $14.74

0.578x NWH Day 3 (42.71M)

 

0.268x Batman Final (11.59M)

0.185x NWH Final (13.67M)

 

Sunday(270 showings): 3581(+503)/40026 ATP: $14.26

0.500x NWH Day 3 (32.09M)

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-25 Thursday(205 showings): 13399(+639)/30280 ATP: $15.24

0.628x Batman Final (13.56M)

0.345x NWH Final (17.25M)

 

T-26 Friday(280 showings): 10431(+831)/41170 ATP: $15.24

0.361x Batman Final (12.62M)

0.244x NWH Final (17.55M)

 

T-27 Saturday(286 showings): 10363(+1063)/42330 ATP: $14.70

0.298x Batman Final (12.90M)

0.206x NWH Final (15.22M)

 

T-28 Sunday(270 showings): 4235(+654)/40026 ATP: $14.30

Edited April 11, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Legion Again]

I understand why it’s happening, but it’s so surreal that we’re in like a 10 day no-comp mode.

[interiorgatordecorator]

10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Disney is requiring theaters that have 3D to add 3D showing.  They haven't done that in a long time, and they are doing it to get theaters ready for Avatar 2.  I said this a couple years ago, but the choice for theaters in December is going to be a hard one.

 

Either they need to spend thousands to fix and update their 3D equipment that has sat dormant for years and is essentially a dead technology that the general public rejected or they have to skip out on the "hook" for one of the biggest movies of the year.

 

3D won't suddenly make a comeback either.  It will be for this one film, and the rest of the time they will have 3D shows of other films clogging their theaters creating low admits.  

 

What do you mean by "spend thousands to fix and update their 3D equipment", over 5 digits?

And if some are unwilling to do so, wont disney spend some of the movies marketing budget to help out?

And besides (domestic) avatar 1 only released in 3d in 3.5k screens split between 2k theaters, as long 2 gets similar numbers of 3d screens it should be enough for it do great, even if its potential gross suffers a hit

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

So what are we thinking right now for DS2? 

I was going on that over 200M hopediction but 175-185M seems way more realistic as of now. 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

So what are we thinking right now for DS2? 

I was going on that over 200M hopediction but 175-185M seems way more realistic as of now. 

200-215 is quite realistic at the moment. 185-200 as well. Don’t see much in the data to go lower than that — maybe if you’re expecting bad reviews?

Edited April 10, 2022 by Thanos Legion

[Noiret Jak]

40M+ for Secrets Of Dumbledore ?

[kyrixos]

How much will the previews for FB3 gross?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

30 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

So what are we thinking right now for DS2? 

I was going on that over 200M hopediction but 175-185M seems way more realistic as of now. 

I don’t think 200 is a hopediction. I had 180 but I bumped to 190 after what I’ve seen. Very possible/likely for 200

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, Noiret Jak said:

40M+ for Secrets Of Dumbledore ?

 

Latest tracking update from Shawn and Co. from Box Office Pro listed a 48-58M OW range. The numbers from our tracking team here so far hints at the same range as well if im not mistaken. 40M+ should be safe.

 

But also, anything under 50M would honestly be ... very bad for the films prospects.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Latest tracking update from Shawn and Co. from Box Office Pro listed a 48-58M OW range. The numbers from our tracking team here so far hints at the same range as well if im not mistaken. 40M+ should be safe.

 

But also, anything under 50M would honestly be ... very bad for the films prospects.

Jat and I are sub 40 from the numbers here

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Jat and I are sub 40 from the numbers here

 

 

 

Uh that would be horrific.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

 

Uh that would be horrific.

Easter makes the IM a little volatile tbf, my range would probably be like… 36-43? 

[BruiseCruise]

Sub 40 over the 4 day weekend?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

FB3 is a film that's destined to hit low end of tracking, no? Fans would have boughten tickets by now and the mixed/slight/average reviews don't really move the needle in anyway (and were released early). The trailers don't have any selling point/moneyshots that will appeal outside of the already dwindling fanbase IMO

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

So what are we thinking right now for DS2? 

I was going on that over 200M hopediction but 175-185M seems way more realistic as of now. 

 

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

200-215 is quite realistic at the moment. 185-200 as well. Don’t see much in the data to go lower than that — maybe if you’re expecting bad reviews?

 

55 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don’t think 200 is a hopediction. I had 180 but I bumped to 190 after what I’ve seen. Very possible/likely for 200

 

To echo the best tag team in the business, I still like Age of Ultron as a target ($191.4M). Obviously though, $191M is only about 5% from $200M so it's well within range. Current tracking is pointing to $180M+ for sure, but if it's really well received or has some kind of unexpected/shocking moments it could easily go over $200M. 

 

Bear Case = $160M (Morbius reception)
Base Case = $185M (75-90 RT?)
Bull Case = $215M (Black Panther / Endgame reception)

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by KnucklesXXR

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

 

 

To echo the best tag team in the business, I still like Age of Ultron as a target ($191.4M). Obviously though, $191M is only about 5% from $200M so it's well within range. Current tracking is pointing to $180M+ for sure, but if it's really well receive or has some kind of unexpected/shocking moments it could easily go over $200M. 

 

Bear Case = $160M (Morbius reception)
Base Case = $185M (75-90 RT?)
Bull Case = $215M (Black Panther / Endgame reception)

 

 

I like that "Morbius reception" is already established as an easy-to-understand variable in discussing possible Box office scenarios. 

[Pinacolada]

Damn wtf happened to FB3 in the last couple days? I feel like just a few days ago, it was starting to get better for it domestically and yall were more optimistic about $50m

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Damn wtf happened to FB3 in the last couple days? I feel like just a few days ago, it was starting to get better for it domestically and yall were more optimistic about $50m

Last movie left a fowl taste in too many mouths, nothing about this looks special, a gap of almost 3.5 years, JK has turned off plenty of people with her controversial statements (which she's been doubling down on vs. just letting it be swept under a rug), reviews are shrug-worthy, and overall even HP diehards aren't entirely won over by the new characters. A vulnerable franchise such as this is prone to implosion when it has so little in its favor.

Edited April 11, 2022 by filmlover

[Pinacolada]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Last movie left a fowl taste in too many mouths, nothing about this looks special, a gap of almost 3.5 years, JK has turned off plenty of people with her controversial statements (which she's been doubling down on vs. just letting it be swept under a rug), reviews are shrug-worthy, and overall even HP diehards aren't entirely won over by the new characters. A vulnerable franchise such as this is prone to implosion when it has so little in its favor.

Oh yeah yeah I get all that. I mean in terms of the tracking. Things were looking up just a couple days ago, whereas now the word is that it may not even hit $40m

Edited April 11, 2022 by Pinacolada