The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

How much more are DS2 tickets going for compared to NWH?

 

I'm thinking at Dec 2021 prices this movie would open to around 190mil but with increases/premium pricing it will do around 215m

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

17 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

How much more are DS2 tickets going for compared to NWH?

 

I'm thinking at Dec 2021 prices this movie would open to around 190mil but with increases/premium pricing it will do around 215m

It hasn’t increased that much. Maybe 2-3% in that timeframe. Definitely not 13%.

[BruiseCruise]

5 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

It hasn’t increased that much. Maybe 2-3% in that timeframe. Definitely not 13%.

but isn't premium pricing $1-1.5 more than NWH tickets were? ( i don't think they were doing that at the time)

[Eevin]

Mendelson is out with his summer box office predictions, which as usual have some bizarre lowballs lol. $350m for DS2 is just not a number based in reality at this point

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Mendelson is out with his summer box office predictions, which as usual have some bizarre lowballs lol. $350m for DS2 is just not a number based in reality at this point

His numbers for JWD, Thor and Strange are all poor takes. JWD would have to drop from FK by 20% in actual ticket sales to be that low. L&T would similarly have to drop 15% from Ragnarok in tickets sold. As for MOM, simply tracking actual sales will tell you that’s going to be off by at least $100M. Legs would have to be worse than BvS for it to only do $350M!

 

Oh and Lightyear will double his prediction at a minimum.

Edited April 26, 2022 by MultiverseXXR

[BruiseCruise]

7 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Mendelson is out with his summer box office predictions, which as usual have some bizarre lowballs lol. $350m for DS2 is just not a number based in reality at this point

 

 

He also said Batman would open to 80m, he has no idea what he's talking about

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

but isn't premium pricing $1-1.5 more than NWH tickets were? ( i don't think they were doing that at the time)

 

Depends on location/chain.  Premium pricing was already in effect here at Cinemark locations for NWH.  

 

While some chains might have been later than others (say waiting until The Batman when the national press finally noticed the price hikes) NWH opened up the floodgates on premium/variable pricing*.

 

* Actually started a skosh before NWH locally, but that's as good as any for a dividing line.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Depends on location/chain.  Premium pricing was already in effect here at Cinemark locations for NWH.  

 

While some chains might have been later than others (say waiting until The Batman when the national press finally noticed the price hikes) NWH opened up the floodgates on premium/variable pricing*.

 

* Actually started a skosh before NWH locally, but that's as good as any for a dividing line.

 

To put this a different way, historically (and I'm talking decades of precedence here), when Major Tentpoles launched, chains tended to use that as a good time to rollout ticket price hikes. NWH was the major tentpole for 2021 and that saw the start of a rollout of ticket price hikes that were probably somewhat overdue thanks to the 'rona freezing everything for a couple of years.  Any chain that didn't start their rollout on/near NWH wouldn't have waited much past The Batman to follow suit (if they were going to).

 

So while there has been some ticket inflation since NWH, it's more of a staggered rollout amongst the chains and not a huge leap.  Not big enough for $1 to $1.5 change, IMO.

 

(@BruiseCruise)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Hey, I think Scott's predictions are quite valuable!

Spoiler

in entertainment value

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

How can someone who is paid for box office writing remain employed while predicting 350m for Dr Strange

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/25/2022 at 4:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1598

3886

41.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1196

3590

33.31%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7931	187	41565	19.08%	15	291

 

AMCs sold	4678
Cinemarks sold	1338
Regals sold	1076
Harkins sold	839

 

0.592x NWH T-10 (29.59M)

 

0.915x Batman Final (19.77M)

0.342x NWH Final (17.12M)

1.78x Eternals Final (16.92M)

1.97x Shang-Chi Final (17.30M)

1.25x Black Widow Final (16.46M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1655

3886

42.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1233

3859

31.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8248	317	41834	19.72%	15	293

 

AMCs sold	4829
Cinemarks sold	1382
Regals sold	1141
Harkins sold	896

 

2.05x Batman T-9 (44.31M)

0.600x NWH T-9 (29.99M)

 

0.952x Batman Final (20.56M)

0.356x NWH Final (17.81M)

1.85x Eternals Final (17.60M)

2.04x Shang-Chi Final (17.99M)

1.30x Black Widow Final (17.11M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/25/2022 at 4:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-10 Thursday(191 showings): 8758(+240)/47158

0.472x NWH T-10 (23.60M)

 

0.817x Batman Final (17.64M)

0.267x NWH Final (13.35M)

 

T-11 Friday(289 showings): 5007(+206)/73523

0.368x NWH T-11 (26.51M)

 

0.457x Batman Final (16.00M)

0.162x NWH Final (11.65M)

 

T-12 Saturday(292 showings): 2935(+138)/72730

0.392x NWH T-12 (28.97M)

 

0.255x Batman Final (11.57M)

0.096x NWH Final (7.09M)

 

T-13 Sunday(265 showings): 714(+17)/67700

0.404x NWH T-13 (25.95M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-9 Thursday(191 showings): 9096(+338)/47158

1.95x Batman T-9 (42.12M)

0.476x NWH T-9 (23.82M)

 

0.848x Batman Final (18.32M)

0.277x NWH Final (13.87M)

 

T-10 Friday(289 showings): 5383(+376)/73523

2.58x Batman T-10 (90.32M)

0.380x NWH T-10 (27.34M)

 

0.492x Batman Final (17.20M)

0.174x NWH Final (12.53M)

 

T-11 Saturday(292 showings): 3169(+234)/72730

2.90x Batman T-11 (125.31M)

0.397x NWH T-11 (29.35M)

 

0.289x Batman Final (12.50M)

0.104x NWH Final (7.66M)

 

T-12 Sunday(265 showings): 786(+72)/67700

2.94x Batman T-12 (100.50M)

0.421x NWH T-12 (27.02M)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

1.95x Batman T-9 (42.12M)

2.58x Batman T-10 (90.32M)

2.90x Batman T-11 (125.31M)

2.94x Batman T-12 (100.50M)

Stop the count!! Endgame is going down!!

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/25/2022 at 4:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-10 Thursday(241 showings): 17191(+364)/33241 ATP: $15.26

0.682x NWH T-10 (34.11M)

 

0.805x Batman Final (17.40M)

0.443x NWH Final (22.15M)

 

T-11 Friday(301 showings): 15363(+437)/44035 ATP: $15.12

0.690x NWH T-11 (49.64M)

 

0.531x Batman Final (18.59M)

0.360x NWH Final (25.90M)

 

T-12 Saturday(309 showings): 16139(+472)/45408 ATP: $14.56

0.759x NWH T-12 (56.12M)

 

0.464x Batman Final (20.08M)

0.321x NWH Final (23.71M)

 

T-13 Sunday(284 showings): 8041(+340)/41859 ATP: $14.29

0.739x NWH T-13 (47.43M)

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(248 showings): 17748(+557)/35172 ATP: $15.24

1.83x Batman T-9 (39.57M)

0.693x NWH T-9 (34.67M)

 

0.832x Batman Final (17.96M)

0.457x NWH Final (22.86M)

 

T-10 Friday(305 showings): 15986(+623)/44535 ATP: $15.10

1.63x Batman T-10 (57.01M)

0.700x NWH T-10(50.38M)

 

0.553x Batman Final (19.35M)

0.375x NWH Final (26.95M)

 

T-11 Saturday(312 showings): 16680(+541)/45729 ATP: $14.54

1.73x Batman T-11 (75.05M)

0.756x NWH T-11 (55.84M)

 

0.480x Batman Final (20.76M)

0.332x NWH Final (24.50M)

 

T-12 Sunday(284 showings): 8472(+431)/41859 ATP: $14.29

2.01x Batman T-12 (68.67M)

0.745x NWH T-12 (47.83M)

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

How can someone who is paid for box office writing remain employed while predicting 350m for Dr Strange

It is likely that tracking agencies have Dr Strange opening weekend at something around $125-150M.

 

That's where Forbes write most of their prediction based on.

Edited April 27, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

Some of Mendelsohn's predictions certainly seem out there, especially that $155M lowball number for Lightyear. His reasons for it make sound like he's just salty that all of Pixar's originals in between Toy Story franchise installments ended up becoming D+ write-offs under unforeseen circumstances.

Edited April 27, 2022 by filmlover

[ZackM]

 

Big day today.  And I'll have NWH comps starting tomorrow.

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	185	11	49	21
Seats Added	16,148	1,924	4,334	538
Seats Sold	10,485	5,611	6,103	4,052
4/26/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	7,375	329,870	1,211,978	27.22%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	48	263	675	1,199
ATP
$16.66

 

 

T-9 Comps:

1.63x - The Batman

 

T-9 ATP Weighted Comps:

1.45x - The Batman

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Doesn't seem like Neeson's Memory is going all that wide. Not playing at Cinemark here, for example

[Porthos]

On 4/26/2022 at 12:09 AM, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	31386	42676	11290	26.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	240
Total Seats Sold Today	265

 

T-10 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	64.83		416	17415		0/308	20137/37552	46.38%		28183	40.06%		32.41m
Batsy:	243.69		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	96.03%		52.64m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	122.77%	16.97
SC:	5847	193.09%	16.99
LTBC:	7712	146.40%	16.98
ET:	6409	176.16%	16.74
NWH:	28183	40.06%	20.03
Batsy:	11757	96.03%	20.74

 

Regal:     2485/11027  [22.54% sold]
Matinee:    722/4632  [15.59% | 6.40% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	30983	42676	11693	27.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

403

 

T-9 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	65.55		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	41.49%		32.77m
Batsy:	243.55		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	99.46%		52.61m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	127.15%	17.58
SC:	5847	199.98%	17.60
LTBC:	7712	151.62%	17.59
ET:	6409	182.45%	17.33
NWH:	28183	41.49%	20.74
Batsy:	11757	99.46%	21.48

 

Regal:     2580/11027  [23.40% sold]
Matinee:    743/4632  [16.04% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Apologies for the delay, as I've been waiting for one theater's seat maps to come back online (can't pull up fresh data on any of the ticket sites out there), and it's one of the busier theaters in town so I was loathe to just punt it for the night 

 

Still hasn't come back online so I just decided to go with what I had.

 

...

 

As one can see, MoM did rather well locally anyway.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Apologies for the delay, as I've been waiting for one theater's seat maps to come back online (can't pull up fresh data on any of the ticket sites out there), and it's one of the busier theaters in town so I was loathe to just punt it for the night 

 

Still hasn't come back online so I just decided to go with what I had.

so this 403 is without that theater. Woah.

Wtf happened yday?