The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Alex SciChannel]

37 minutes ago, el sid said:

Overall that was a good last day in my theaters.

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, June 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 249 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 946 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 291 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 173 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 248 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 643 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.792 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.342.

Up acceptable 14% since yesterday.

Comps (both counted on Thursday for Thursday): Uncharted (3.7M from previews) had 1.294 sold tickets = x3.36 = 12.4M.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M) had 1.437 sold tickets = x3.02 = 13.6M.

IMO JW3 will have the way better walk-ups and I would just add 5M to the comparison numbers above.
 

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, June 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 779 (14 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 897 (23 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 489 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 208 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 183 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 575 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.650 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.623.
Still not frontloaded at all in my theaters. And at this level a 35% jump (since Tuesday) is fine.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday):

Uncharted (44M OW) had 1.180 sold tickets = x4.76 = 209.4M OW,

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M) had 1.124 sold tickets = x5 = 220M,

TG: M (126.7M) had 4.025 sold tickets = x1.4 = 177.4M.

And to stay grounded: F9 had 3.585 sold tickets = x1.54 = 107.8M. But I don't think this movie is a good comp e.g. because F9 isn't directly a family film or a film for all ages.

In sum: The Thursday presales are so-so but the Friday number is really good.
Will it have better or worse walk-ups than TG: M (I guess a bit worse)? And how much will the reviews and the mixed reception of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hurt? Of course I don't know the answers yet but wouldn't go under 150M OW.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Look out...final presales run.

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	73	395	186	0
Seats Added	0	6,399	44,200	20,751	0
Seats Sold	28,903	19,844	16,191	12,055	8,750
6/9/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	5,017	180,854	840,342	21.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	8	46	214	497
ATP
$16.76

 

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	$15.2	$14.5	$10.7	$10.3	$11.7	$12.3	$12.1
T-1	$13.9	$13.2	$10.3	$9.9	$10.9	$11.5	$11.3
T-2	$14.1	$13.2	$10.0	$9.5	$10.3	$10.8	$10.9
T-3	$14.1	$13.2	$9.6	$9.2	$9.8	$10.4	$10.6
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

For me the late night finished at 158K. So about 22K since then. More interesting thing is how are early shows in east coast doing. I just looked at Empire 25 and prime time Imax/PLF shows are 70% full while earlier shows are lot less full. 2d/3d shows are mostly empty. So this is not doing well in big market like NYC. That said there are movies that under performed in NYC and still did great. 

 

Still sticking with 250K finish at alpha. Let us see how things go as shows continues in across the coast. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Walkups looking good in my regions for early shows.  +790 since this morning (3,147/13,039 sold for those 92 shows)

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	290	25319	33738	8419	24.95%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	224
Total Seats Sold Today	1560

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	121.24		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9196	91.55%		16.76m
SC	201.80		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		5847	143.99%		17.76m
NTTD	302.19		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	225.29%		18.74m
MoM	46.09		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		2915	288.82%		16.59m
TG:M	87.19		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	73.37%		16.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	269.68		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	177.40%		20.05m
JWD (adj)	---		1443	7818		0/261	22167/29985	26.07%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.58755x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [21.86m adj]
JW3 = 3.38934x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [19.22m adj]
JW3 = 0.94377x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [19.54m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      1504/8248  [18.23% sold]
Matinee:    484/2182  [22.18% | 5.75% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:50pm]

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	290	24248	33738	9490	28.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

1071

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	121.12		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	103.20%		16.74m
SC [12:00-12:55]	197.46		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		5847	162.31%		17.38m
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	307.22		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	253.95%		19.05m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	48.76		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		2915	325.56%		17.56m
TG:M [11:30-12:30]	91.58		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	82.71%		17.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	257.70		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	198.23%		19.16m
JWD (adj)	---		918	8736		0/261	21249/29985	29.13%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.51706x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [20.89m adj]
JW3 = 3.19698x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [18.13m adj]
JW3 = 0.93189x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [19.29m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      1779/8248  [21.57% sold]
Matinee:    597/2182  [27.36% | 6.29% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Brisk and solid sales.  Not collapsing but not exploding, either.  Probs looking at around 18m as a guesstimate, if Sacto holds.  But the final comps can always see something of a jump or drop depending on how solid those last few hours of sales are.  Probably doesn't have enough juice to hit 19m, so lets see if it can hold on to 18 or not.

 

NB: The NTTD comp will be a little suspect since there should be a lot more kids tickets sold for JWD than NTTD.  F9 I'm a bit more ambivalent on, but even there the kids/adult skew should still be in play somewhat.  On the other hand, lots of 3D and PLF tickets sold, so who knows?  Still, could be worse for day of sales.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

How has the PLF breakdown been in other areas?  I was wondering about mine after seeing how high it is in Santikos (45% of sales for Thursday, 52% for Friday).   Here's how my regional PLF share ranks against some of the comps

 

Top Gun 2 - 34.2% PLF

F9 - 29.7% PLF

Doctor Strange 2 - 35% PLF

Dune - 44.1% PLF

JW3 - 46.5%

 

These are the final percentages for me for those movies, so they'll come down at the final bell for JWD:

 

F9:      28.55% (3D: 0%)

Dune: 54.96% (3D: 2.81%)

MoM: 31.72%  (3D: 11.32%)

TGM: 55.58%  (3D: 0%)

JWD: 39.39%  (3D: 10.65%) [NOT FINAL - WILL COME DOWN]

 

...

 

As always, lol at that TGM PLF + DBOX percentage.  Outdid Dune, despite have waaaaaaaaaaay more tickets sold.

[motionpic05]

So do we think the re-release of E.T. and Jaws will actually do well?
Re-shoots aren't really big deals... normally

Edited June 9, 2022 by motionpic05

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

55

1609

3.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

36

1243

2.90%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
245	N/A	16142	1.52%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	220
Cinemarks sold	12
Regals sold	8
Harkins sold	5

 

Wednesday

Total

14

2111

Overall

 

Grand Total

259

18253

 

0.938x Ghostbusters Afterlife Day 2 (4.23M)

0.504x Shang-Chi Day 2 (4.43M)

 

Don't really have great comps for this

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

62

1609

3.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1243

3.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
289	44	16142	1.79%	15	119

 

AMCs sold	259
Cinemarks sold	19
Regals sold	8
Harkins sold	3

 

Wednesday

Total

26

12

2111

Overall

Grand Total

315

56

18253

 

1.05x Ghostbusters Day 3 (4.74M)

0.569x Shang-Chi Day 3 (5.00M)

2.10x Free Guy T-7 (4.62M)

1.98x Jungle Cruise T-7 (5.35M)

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-7 Wednesday(4 showings): 154/2146

T-8 Thursday(92 showings): 150/23022

Total Previews(96 showings): 304/25168

1.05x Ghostbusters Day 2 (4.72M, only comping Thurs didn't have GB Wed numbers)

0.623x Shang-Chi Day 2 (5.48M)

 

T-9 Friday(149 showings): 309/41968

2.31x Ghostbusters Day 2 (28.07M)

1.10x Shang-Chi Day 2 (22.77M)

 

T-10 Saturday(150 showings): 185/40755

2.68x Ghostbusters Day 2 (44.05M)

 

T-11 Sunday(148 showings): 52/41296

4.73x Ghostbusters Day 2 (51.64M)

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-6 Wednesday(4 showings): 203(+49)/2146

T-7 Thursday(92 showings): 208(+58)/23022

Total Previews(96 showings): 411(+107)/25168

1.38x Ghostbusters Day 3 (6.20M, only comping Thurs didn't have GB Wed numbers)

0.746x Shang-Chi Day 3 (6.56M)

 

T-8 Friday(149 showings): 406(+97)/41968

2.32x Ghostbusters Day 3 (28.19M)

1.31x Shang-Chi Day 3 (27.02M)

 

T-9 Saturday(150 showings): 260(+75)/40755

2.24x Ghostbusters Day 3 (36.82M)

 

T-10 Sunday(148 showings): 84(+32)/41296

7.64x Ghostbusters Day 3 (83.41M)

 

Looks like Lightyear is targeting a huge Saturday to Sunday increase... Should probably just get rid of that Sunday comp lol

[Legion Again]

Tbf a Sunday increase isn't totally outlandish

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Wednesday(2 showings): 145/470

T-8 Thursday(114 showings): 731/17536

Total Previews(116 showings): 876/18006

0.651x Ghostbusters Day 2 (2.93M)

 

T-9 Friday(120 showings): 954/19522

0.961x Ghostbusters Day 2 (11.68M)

 

T-10 Saturday(138 showings): 832/21801

0.947x Ghostbusters Day 2 (15.57M)

 

T-11 Sunday(122 showings): 625/19859

1.72x Ghostbusters Day 2 (18.78M)

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 Wednesday(2 showings): 161(+16)/470

T-7 Thursday(114 showings): 1091(+360)/17536

Total Previews(116 showings): 1252(+376)/18006

0.858x Ghostbusters Day 3 (3.86M)

 

T-8 Friday(120 showings): 1159(+205)/19522

1.01x Ghostbusters Day 3 (12.27M)

 

T-9 Saturday(138 showings): 1020(+188)/21801

0.976x Ghostbusters Day 3 (16.04M)

 

T-10 Sunday(122 showings): 822(+197)/19859

1.85x Ghostbusters Day 3 (20.17M)

[Alex SciChannel]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-6 Wednesday(4 showings): 203(+49)/2146

T-7 Thursday(92 showings): 208(+58)/23022

Total Previews(96 showings): 411(+107)/25168

1.38x Ghostbusters Day 3 (6.20M, only comping Thurs didn't have GB Wed numbers)

0.746x Shang-Chi Day 3 (6.56M)

 

T-8 Friday(149 showings): 406(+97)/41968

2.32x Ghostbusters Day 3 (28.19M)

1.31x Shang-Chi Day 3 (27.02M)

 

T-9 Saturday(150 showings): 260(+75)/40755

2.24x Ghostbusters Day 3 (36.82M)

 

T-10 Sunday(148 showings): 84(+32)/41296

7.64x Ghostbusters Day 3 (83.41M)

 

Looks like Lightyear is targeting a huge Saturday to Sunday increase... Should probably just get rid of that Sunday comp lol

It is fathers day on Sunday as well as Juneteenth. So Sunday increases all around.

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City Cinemark Sugarhouse, Preview Night, Jurassic World: Dominion.

1 hour before first showing.

 

Total tix sold 364/787 46.3%

 

Comps:

Batman .864 x 21.6 = $18.67

Eternals 1.85 x 9.5 = $17.55

Ghostbusters 4.18 x 4.5 = $18.82

 

I was out of action in April/May so no DS or TGM comps, but the raptors are looking strong here. And anecdotally, I have talked to several occasional-type moviegoers since the reviews dropped, and not a one has expressed any concern about the low marks. Most just want to see some dinosaurs tear shit up.

 

18/135

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

NOPE Tickets are on sale.

Guess it's keeping the July 22 date.

 

BTW, I don't know whose bright idea it was to see tickets to a horror film go on sale 42 days out, since horror is notoriously backloaded, but I checked out Nope since Us did 7.4/71.1m in its OW back in 2019.

 

...

 

It had sold 7 tickets in the entire region by the time I had finished setting up everything (around 11am).  

 

S-E-V-E-N.

 

Now I'm sure it'll go up by tonight, if only coz it has to. But, again, whoever thought this film needed six weeks of pre-sales probably needs to sit down and reflect on their choices.

 

===

 

Now my qualification about extreme backloadedness notwithstanding, I must admit to being a little worried about NOPE.  The reception to Us wasn't nearly as strong as Get Out, and I'm wondering how that's gonna affect NOPE.  I don't think the start (whatever it turns out to be) says a damn thing about how it'll do in the end.  But it also isn't saying a damn thing by not having any sort of Peele fan rush, either, if one sees what I am trying to say.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

BTW, I don't know whose bright idea it was to see tickets to a horror film go on sale 42 days out, since horror is notoriously backloaded, but I checked out Nope since Us did 7.4/71.1m in its OW back in 2019.

 

...

 

It had sold 7 tickets in the entire region by the time I had finished setting up everything (around 11am).  

 

S-E-V-E-N.

 

Now I'm sure it'll go up by tonight, if only coz it has to. But, again, whoever thought this film needed six weeks of pre-sales probably needs to sit down and reflect on their choices.

 

===

 

Now my qualification about extreme backloadedness notwithstanding, I must admit to being a little worried about NOPE.  The reception to Us wasn't nearly as strong as Get Out, and I'm wondering how that's gonna affect NOPE.  I don't think the start (whatever it turns out to be) says a damn thing about how it'll do in the end.  But it also isn't saying a damn thing by not having any sort of Peele fan rush, either, if one sees what I am trying to say.

Yeah, I started to set up my sheets earlier, but then I said 

Spoiler

fine, because I have problem

 

[Tinalera]

Jurassic Dominion

Friday June 10 (taken June 9)

 

Southwest Ontario

10 theatres

106 shows

Total Sold 3657

Total Remaining 16669

Total Seats 20326

No sellouts

Percentage 17.99

 

Toronto Ontario

10 theatres

129 shows

Total sold 2894

Total remaining 29590

Total seats 32484

No Sellouts

Percentage 8.91

 

Reference sales for Friday opening (NOT comp)

 

TG2 made 52 million on friday (mojo number)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(218 showings): 11397(+1562)/28465 ATP: $14.36

0.799x Top Gun 2 T-1 (15.40M)

0.408x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (14.68M)

0.632x Batman T-1 (11.12M)

 

T-2 Friday(362 showings): 14426(+2360)/46891 ATP: $14.41

1.11x Top Gun 2 T-2 (36.26M)

0.495x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (27.11M)

0.660x Batman T-2 (23.11M)

 

T-3 Saturday(363 showings): 13509(+2033)/47791 ATP: $13.87

1.15x Top Gun 2 T-3 (43.91M)

0.446x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (25.79M)

0.588x Batman T-3 (25.43M)

 

T-4 Sunday(332 showings): 7981(+1736)/43196 ATP: $13.30

1.07x Top Gun 2 T-4 (39.19M)

0.449x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (17.45M)

0.659x Batman T-4 (22.49M)

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(220 showings): 15434(+4037)/28675 ATP: $14.22

0.913x Top Gun 2 T-0 (17.58M)

0.477x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (17.16M)

0.723x Batman T-0 (12.73M)

 

T-1 Friday(367 showings): 17761(+3335)/47514 ATP: $14.22

1.13x Top Gun 2 T-1 (37.02M)

0.545x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (29.82M)

0.704x Batman T-1 (24.65M)

 

T-2 Saturday(370 showings): 16316(+2807)/48440 ATP: $13.77

1.19x Top Gun 2 T-2 (45.13M)

0.486x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (28.07M)

0.608x Batman T-2 (26.29M)

 

T-3 Sunday(336 showings): 9618(+1637)/43696 ATP: $13.18

1.07x Top Gun 2 T-3 (39.08M)

0.470x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (18.27M)

0.647x Batman T-3 (22.09M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:36 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(166 showings): 5551(+724)/38202

0.606x Top Gun 2 T-1 (11.67M)

0.358x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (12.90M)

0.659x Batman T-1 (14.23M)

1.12x Black Widow T-1 (14.72M)

 

T-2 Friday(307 showings): 7087(+1308)/70577

0.669x Top Gun 2 T-2 (21.92M)

0.591x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (32.32M)

1.08x Batman T-2 (37.73M)

1.49x Black Widow T-2 (39.21M)

 

T-3 Saturday(318 showings): 4974(+902)/72720

0.611x Top Gun 2 T-3 (23.23M)

0.635x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (36.69M)

1.31x Batman T-3 (56.61M)

 

T-4 Sunday(299 showings): 1748(+385)/69079

0.746x Top Gun 2 T-4 (27.37M)

0.796x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (30.97M)

1.93x Batman T-4 (65.87M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(178 showings): 8269(+2718)/40099

0.703x Top Gun 2 T-0 (13.54M)

0.446x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (16.05M)

0.771x Batman T-0 (16.65M)

0.999x Black Widow T-0 (13.18M)

 

T-1 Friday(307 showings): 9230(+2143)/70577

0.727x Top Gun 2 T-1 (23.81M)

0.655x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (35.83M)

1.07x Batman T-1 (37.52M)

1.47x Black Widow T-1 (38.64M)

 

T-2 Saturday(318 showings): 6268(+1294)/72720

0.632x Top Gun 2 T-2 (24.04M)

0.675x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (39.04M)

1.22x Batman T-2 (52.75M)

 

T-3 Sunday(299 showings): 2284(+536)/69079

0.760x Top Gun 2 T-3 (27.88M)

0.898x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (34.93M)

1.76x Batman T-3 (59.94M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3	T-0	Jax	7	115	531	2,745	16,584	16.55%
		Phx	7	107	482	2,456	16,578	14.81%
		Ral	8	87	354	2,206	9,858	22.38%
	Total		22	309	1,367	7,407	43,020	17.22%
JW3+JP	T-0	Jax	5	5	0	198	811	24.41%
		Phx	6	6	6	417	638	65.36%
		Ral	7	7	2	236	688	34.30%
	Total		18	18	8	851	2,137	39.82%

 

Breaking this out from the others since I'll be updating it later today for the last time.  

 

JW3 T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.279x (16.88m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .817x (14.38m)

 - Batman + EA - .656x (14.16m)

 - Eternals - 1.786x (16.97m)

 - F9 - 2.42x (17.2m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.097x (16.13m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .859x (16.58m)

 - Dune - 3.35x (17.08m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.13x (17.15m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.46x (21.64m)

 

I think it's pretty easy to see a pattern here.  My range right now is 16.5m - 17.5m.  I'll hopefully be able to narrow it down tonight at the last 1hr run.  For those that don't know, for movies with previews starting before 6pm, I'll pull the pre-6m shows an hour before the first shows start; I pull the rest of them at 5pm.  I also want to note that I haven't been using the double feature sales in my comps at all.  I'm not sure how these will be counted, but it will be enough money to affect things.   Keep that in mind when the number is reported if we don't end up getting clarity on it.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Batman	T-0	Jax	7	142	575	2,496	21,693	11.51%
		Phx	7	133	624	3,732	19,467	19.17%
		Ral	28	104	520	2,837	11,614	24.43%
	Total		42	379	1,719	9,065	52,774	17.18%
Doctor Strange 2	1-Hr	Jax	7	187	942	7,638	26,589	28.73%
		Phx	7	172	585	7,810	22,029	35.45%
		Ral	8	161	816	7,626	17,407	43.81%
	Total		22	520	2,343	23,074	66,025	34.95%
Dune	1-Hr	Jax	7	47	211	959	6,928	13.84%
		Phx	7	34	147	977	4,463	21.89%
		Ral	8	25	180	814	3,195	25.48%
	Total		22	106	538	2,750	14,586	18.85%
Ghostbusters	1-Hr	Jax	7	69	258	821	10,952	7.50%
		Phx	7	41	174	885	6,665	13.28%
		Ral	8	38	160	678	4,991	13.58%
	Total		22	148	592	2,384	22,608	10.54%
JW3	1-Hr	Jax	7	119	1,101	3,846	16,830	22.85%
		Phx	7	107	593	3,049	16,578	18.39%
		Ral	8	87	717	2,923	9,858	29.65%
	Total		22	313	2,411	9,818	43,266	22.69%
JW3+JP	1-Hr	Jax	5	5	0	198	811	24.41%
		Phx	6	6	-2	415	638	65.05%
		Ral	7	7	21	257	688	37.35%
	Total		18	18	19	870	2,137	40.71%
No Time to Die	1-Hr	Jax	7	73	162	860	11,145	7.72%
		Phx	7	59	107	834	7,197	11.59%
		Ral	7	40	213	1,037	4,417	23.48%
	Total		21	172	482	2,731	22,759	12.00%
Shang-Chi	1-Hr	Jax	6	60	493	1,423	8,619	16.51%
		Phx	7	51	262	1,349	7,193	18.75%
		Ral	8	40	332	1,327	4,505	29.46%
	Total		21	151	1,087	4,099	20,317	20.18%
Top Gun 2	1-Hr	Jax	7	129	641	2,931	20,520	14.28%
		Phx	7	108	283	2,817	16,665	16.90%
		Ral	8	92	399	2,326	10,132	22.96%
	Total		22	329	1,323	8,074	47,317	17.06%

 

So I wanted to change it up and put all of the final runs in my post for comparison sake.  The first thing that jumped out to me was that JW3 had more sales today than any of these other movies did on preview day in the same time frame.  That's pretty crazy.  I believe it's second only to NWH (3,639) from movies I've tracked. (Confirmed)   ATP finished at 14.85 which is also higher than a lot of the comps

 

JW3 T-1 hr comps

 - Black Widow - 1.334x (17.6m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.828x (17.36m)

 - F9 - 2.56x (18.17m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.216x (17.88m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - missed EA

 - Dune - 3.57x (18.21m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.12x (17.09m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.39x (21.08m)

All action movies - 18.28m

All PG-13 movies - 19.86m

All movies - 19.5m

 

Really good walkups make me thing this one will in fact reach 18m.  If we include double feature $ in previews, even higher!

 

JW3 + Double Feature T-1 hr comps

 - Black Widow - 1.452x (19.16m)

 - Eternals - 1.99x (18.9m)

 - F9 - 2.79x (19.78m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.324x (19.46m)

 

Overall top sales comps

 

Movie	Previews	T-hr Sales	Comp
Spider-Man	50,000,000	34,681	$15,409,014
Doctor Strange 2	36,000,000	23,074	$16,675,392
JW3	???	10,688
Top Gun 2	14,700,000	8,074	$19,459,202
Black Widow	13,200,000	7,362	$19,163,488
Eternals	9,500,000	5,372	$18,900,968
Shang-Chi	8,800,000	4,099	$22,945,694
F9: The Fast Saga	7,100,000	3,836	$19,782,273
Fantastic Beasts 3	6,000,000	3,445	$18,614,804
Morbius	5,700,000	2,950	$20,651,390
Dune	5,100,000	2,750	$19,821,382
No Time to Die	5,200,000	2,731	$20,350,641
Halloween Kills	4,850,000	2,493	$20,792,940
Ghostbusters	4,150,000	2,384	$18,605,369
Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	2,880,000	2,004	$15,360,000
Suicide Squad	4,100,000	1,958	$22,380,388
Downton Abbey + EA	1,800,000	1,470	$13,087,347
Jungle Cruise	2,700,000	1,102	$26,186,570
Lost City	2,500,000	1,003	$26,640,080

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

881

3076

28.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

895

3287

27.23%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5040	650	32389	15.56%	15	229

 

AMCs sold	2974
Cinemarks sold	869
Regals sold	632
Harkins sold	565

 

0.676x Top Gun 2 T-1 (13.01M)

0.393x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (14.16M)

0.719x Batman T-1 (15.54M)

1.24x Black Widow T-1 (16.36M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1181

3124

37.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1133

3324

34.09%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7152	2112	34350	20.82%	15	245

 

AMCs sold	3824
Cinemarks sold	1342
Regals sold	1019
Harkins sold	967

 

0.807x Top Gun 2 T-0 (15.54M)

0.466x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (16.76M)

0.825x Batman T-0 (17.83M)

1.12x Black Widow T-0 (14.84M)

2.49x Fast 9 T-0 (17.67M)

 

Salt Lake City and Denver were among the top markets for Top Gun 2, so the comps should undershoot the actual Thursday number. Black Widow obviously needs to be adjusted up to account for ATP differences, theater restrictions/closures, and whatnot. Same goes for Fast 9, but that means it will most likely overshoot the actual. Taking all that into account, I'll go with 16.9M. I think it'll just miss 17M but I'm sure the headline will still say 17M if it does

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

BTW, I don't know whose bright idea it was to see tickets to a horror film go on sale 42 days out, since horror is notoriously backloaded, but I checked out Nope since Us did 7.4/71.1m in its OW back in 2019.

 

...

 

It had sold 7 tickets in the entire region by the time I had finished setting up everything (around 11am).  

 

S-E-V-E-N.

 

Now I'm sure it'll go up by tonight, if only coz it has to. But, again, whoever thought this film needed six weeks of pre-sales probably needs to sit down and reflect on their choices.

 

===

 

Now my qualification about extreme backloadedness notwithstanding, I must admit to being a little worried about NOPE.  The reception to Us wasn't nearly as strong as Get Out, and I'm wondering how that's gonna affect NOPE.  I don't think the start (whatever it turns out to be) says a damn thing about how it'll do in the end.  But it also isn't saying a damn thing by not having any sort of Peele fan rush, either, if one sees what I am trying to say.

I think a shorter sales window, preferably 17-21 days but no more than ~25, works out better for everyone.  Studios can build hype/buzz by having a ticket sale launch close to release, have time to finalize films (and not adjust run time after tickets are on sale), while also there is also far more clarity on the landscape of the overall market, which helps determine PLF assignment and expected print allocation/showtimes.  Imagine if LY and JWD had swapped dates, with LY going on sale when JWD did and with full IMAX/PLF shows .... then seeing TG2 is making $127 & $90M in second weekend and selling those PLF shows out. Now you're stuck, even though the TG2 advance sales told you weeks before there was a massive blow-up coming

 

Nope tickets went on sale today because the trailer will be the lead in to JWD (both Universal), so they're hoping to grab eyeballs and sales without having to pay to advertise for them (and not much crossover appeal with Minions)