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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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On 12/15/2022 at 3:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Saturday(530 showings): 17167(+2157)/64174 ATP: $15.12

0.757x Thor L&T T-2 (31.89M)

1.25x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (47.48M)

 

T-3 Sunday(510 showings): 10882(+1250)/61327 ATP: $14.96

0.805x Thor L&T T-3 (26.17M)

1.21x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (44.22M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(530 showings): 21468(+4301)/64174 ATP: $15.00

0.729x Thor L&T T-1 (30.69M)

1.67x Eternals T-1 (40.29M)

 

T-2 Sunday(510 showings): 13262(+2380)/61327 ATP: $14.89

0.743x Thor L&T T-2 (26.17M)

1.90x Eternals T-2 (31.00M)

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21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Babylon T-6 Jax 5 12 2 18 1,380 1.30%
    Phx 6 17 4 51 1,863 2.74%
    Ral 8 17 3 42 1,618 2.60%
  Total   19 46 9 111 4,861 2.28%
I Wanna Dance T-6 Jax 5 15 9 56 1,454 3.85%
    Phx 6 20 1 29 2,333 1.24%
    Ral 9 25 8 73 2,579 2.83%
  Total   19 60 18 158 6,366 2.48%
M3GAN T-20 Jax 5 20 1 7 1,758 0.40%
    Phx 5 13 0 9 2,039 0.44%
    Ral 7 14 0 12 1,817 0.66%
  Total   17 47 1 28 5,614 0.50%
Puss in Boots T-5 Jax 6 53 10 70 5,228 1.34%
    Phx 6 54 9 26 7,034 0.37%
    Ral 7 40 19 112 4,892 2.29%
  Total   19 147 38 208 17,154 1.21%

 

Puss in Boots T-5 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .309x (1.54m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Super Pets - 1.73x (3.81m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .435x (1.39m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.43x (1.72m)

 - Respect - 3.29x (2.14m)

 

Babylon T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .306x (979k)

 - Bullet Train - .348x (1.17m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.82x (1m)

 

M3GAN T-20 comps

 - Nope - .115x (737k)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Babylon T-5 Jax 5 13 3 21 1,430 1.47%
    Phx 7 20 2 53 2,037 2.60%
    Ral 8 18 3 45 1,666 2.70%
  Total   20 51 8 119 5,133 2.32%
I Wanna Dance T-5 Jax 5 15 1 57 1,454 3.92%
    Phx 6 20 11 40 2,333 1.71%
    Ral 9 25 1 74 2,579 2.87%
  Total   19 60 13 171 6,366 2.69%
M3GAN T-19 Jax 5 20 0 7 1,758 0.40%
    Phx 5 13 0 9 2,039 0.44%
    Ral 7 14 0 12 1,817 0.66%
  Total   17 47 0 28 5,614 0.50%
Puss in Boots T-4 Jax 6 60 3 73 6,668 1.09%
    Phx 6 54 12 38 7,034 0.54%
    Ral 7 57 10 122 6,745 1.81%
  Total   19 171 25 233 20,447 1.14%

 

Puss in Boots T-4 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .301x (1.5m)

 - Minions 2 - .379x (4.08m)

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Super Pets - 1.765x (3.88m)

 - Paw Patrol - .893x (4.04m)

 - Strange World - 5.295x (4.24m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .41x (1.31m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.49x (1.74m)

 - Respect - 3.56x (2.32m)

 

Babylon T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .285x (913k)

 - Bullet Train - .355x (1.19m)

 - Amsterdam - missed

 

M3GAN T-19 comps

 - Nope - missed

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1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I Wanna Dance T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .41x (1.31m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.49x (1.74m)

 - Respect - 3.56x (2.32m)

These look … decent? With caveat of comparing Thur to Tue (which alters the sales pattern and T-X comparisons)

 

If you have numbers for it, maybe add King’s Man? Not a great comp stylistically, but similar release date

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16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-1 Saturday(288 showings): 10249(+1939)/63242

1.39x Thor L&T T-1

1.33x Batman T-1

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-0 Saturday(288 showings): 12613(+2364)/63242

1.23x Thor L&T T-0 (51.60M)

1.15x Batman T-0 (49.73M)

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16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(530 showings): 21468(+4301)/64174 ATP: $15.00

0.729x Thor L&T T-1 (30.69M)

1.67x Eternals T-1 (40.29M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Saturday(530 showings): 25450(+3982)/64174 ATP: $14.94

0.738x Thor L&T T-0 (31.07M)

1.11x Top Gun T-0 (42.10M)

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On 12/15/2022 at 11:36 PM, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 113 545 16775 3.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

5.093x of Encanto T-6 (7.64M)

0.255x of Sing 2 T-6 (2.48M)

0.586x of Sonic 2 T-6 (3.66M)

1.497x of Lightyear T-6 (7.79M)

1.584x of Minions 2 T-6 (17.03M)

7.365x of Super Pets T-6 (16.2M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 113 562 16775 3.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

4.532x of Encanto T-5 (6.8M)

0.256x of Sing 2 T-5 (2.49M)

0.548x of Sonic 2 T-5 (3.43M)

1.351x of Lightyear T-5 (7.02M)

1.329x of Minions 2 T-5 (14.28M)

5.854x of Super Pets T-5 (12.88M)

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5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-0 Saturday(288 showings): 12613(+2364)/63242

1.23x Thor L&T T-0 (51.60M)

1.15x Batman T-0 (49.73M)

 

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Saturday(530 showings): 25450(+3982)/64174 ATP: $14.94

0.738x Thor L&T T-0 (31.07M)

1.11x Top Gun T-0 (42.10M)

 

These four average out to $43.6M which will probably be close. 

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Fri) 3D 54 409 1,905 6,693 28.46% $15.00 $28,566.04
    PLF 36 509 3,126 7,704 40.58% $15.95 $49,844.35
    Standard 140 1,124 3,017 16,029 18.82% $11.52 $34,758.33
  Total   230 2,042 8,048 30,426 26.45% $14.06 $113,168.72
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sat) 3D 54 196 1,644 6,693 24.56% $14.28 $23,469.02
    PLF 36 305 3,023 7,710 39.21% $15.49 $46,825.05
    Standard 135 577 2,018 15,337 13.16% $10.89 $21,967.11
  Total   225 1,078 6,685 29,740 22.48% $13.80 $92,261.18
T-2 Avatar 2 (Sun) 3D 54 135 837 6,693 12.51% $13.90 $11,630.46
    PLF 36 307 2,019 7,704 26.21% $15.33 $30,945.17
    Standard 133 208 1,124 15,049 7.47% $10.33 $11,613.17
  Total   223 650 3,980 29,446 13.52% $13.62 $54,188.80

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Fri) N 106 1,259 5,634 14,254 39.53% $15.20 $85,619.69
    Y 124 783 2,414 16,172 14.93% $11.41 $27,549.03
  Total   230 2,042 8,048 30,426 26.45% $14.06 $113,168.72
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 103 502 3,298 13,995 23.57% $16.17 $53,334.62
    Y 122 576 3,387 15,745 21.51% $11.49 $38,926.56
  Total   225 1,078 6,685 29,740 22.48% $13.80 $92,261.18
T-2 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 101 273 1,503 13,631 11.03% $17.14 $25,763.00
    Y 122 377 2,477 15,815 15.66% $11.48 $28,425.80
  Total   223 650 3,980 29,446 13.52% $13.62 $54,188.80

 

Avatar Fri T-0 comps

 - NWH - .37x (26.66m)

 - DS2 - .505x (27.61m)

 - Batman - .817x (28.62m)

 - TG2 - .953x (31.17m)

 - JW3 - .539x (22.44m)

 - Thor 4 - .716x (29.04m)

 - Avatar (Re-release) - 10.91x (36.79m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 17m)

 - NWH - 32.04m

 - DS2 - 36.81m

 - Batman - 31.76m

 - TG2 - 32.8m

 - JW3 - 33.71m

 - Thor 4 - 34.33m

 

Not looking as good here as I hoped.  I'll go with 35m for true Friday.

 

Avatar Sat T-1 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - Batman - .82x (35.46m)

 - Avatar (Re-release) - 15.37x (63.35m)

 - Thor 4 - .881x (37.12m)

 

Using growth rate comparisons, I'm expecting a final Saturday of ~9,750.  Adjusting comps based on a 35m Friday, here are my hypothetical comps for Saturday

 - NWH - 44.63m

 - Batman - 45.1m

 - DS2 - 39.97m

 - TG2 - 46.5m

 - JW3 - 46.06m

 - Thor 4 - 43.09m

*Note: these are hypothetical based on expected sales and predicted Friday gross.

 

Avatar Sun T-2 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - Batman - 1.032x (35.24m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sat) 3D 54 582 2,226 6,693 33.26% $14.20 $31,619.37
    PLF 36 674 3,697 7,710 47.95% $15.34 $56,702.91
    Standard 135 1,432 3,450 15,337 22.49% $10.65 $36,734.11
  Total   225 2,688 9,373 29,740 31.52% $13.34 $125,056.39
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sun) 3D 54 247 1,084 6,693 16.20% $13.91 $15,081.39
    PLF 36 397 2,416 7,704 31.36% $15.29 $36,951.12
    Standard 133 378 1,502 15,049 9.98% $10.41 $15,641.84
  Total   223 1,022 5,002 29,446 16.99% $13.53 $67,674.35

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 103 1,140 4,438 13,995 31.71% $15.71 $69,720.50
    Y 122 1,548 4,935 15,745 31.34% $11.21 $55,335.89
  Total   225 2,688 9,373 29,740 31.52% $13.34 $125,056.39
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 101 436 1,939 13,631 14.22% $16.82 $32,612.44
    Y 122 586 3,063 15,815 19.37% $11.45 $35,061.91
  Total   223 1,022 5,002 29,446 16.99% $13.53 $67,674.35

 

Saturday sales didn't get anywhere close to where I was hoping.  It's looking like Friday came in a bit higher and that pretty much balanced out the softer Sat sales to put my adjusted comps on par with expectations.

 

Avatar Sat T-0 comps

 - NWH - .442x (32.68m)

 - Batman - .819x (35.45m)

 - DS2 - .524x (30.32m)

 - Avatar (Re-release) - 14.97x (61.73m)

 - Thor 4 - .816x (34.37m)

 - TG2 - 1.047x (39.8m)

 - JW3 - .605x (28.38m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 36.5m Friday)

 - NWH - 44.75m

 - Batman - 45.21m

 - DS2 - 40.07m

 - TG2 - 46.62m

 - JW3 - 46.17m

 - Thor 4 - 43.2m

 

Very promising numbers here - I'll put my projection at 46m

 

Avatar Sun T-1 comps

 - NWH - .455x (29.24m)

 - Batman - .928x (31.69m)

 - Thor 4 - .899x (32.5m)

 

Adjusted Sun comps (using 46m Sat)

 - NWH - 40.6m

 - Batman - 40.77m

 - Thor 4 - 37.93m

 

Looking promising for around 40m Sunday

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28 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I Wanna Dance (and Babylon) open Friday afaik. 

Lol, just shows how much I have not been paying attention outside of Avatar. Disregard!

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On 12/15/2022 at 11:37 PM, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 24 5433 0.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

1.043x of The Conjuring 3 T-21 (10.23M)

0.104x of Scream T-21 (364K)

0.099x of Nope T-21 (632K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 25 5433 0.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.658x of The Conjuring 3 T-20 (6.45M)

0.105x of Scream T-20 (368K)

0.100x of Nope T-20 (643K)

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9 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 25 5433 0.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.658x of The Conjuring 3 T-20 (6.45M)

0.105x of Scream T-20 (368K)

0.100x of Nope T-20 (643K)

This good or bad?

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Babylon T-5 Jax 5 13 3 21 1,430 1.47%
    Phx 7 20 2 53 2,037 2.60%
    Ral 8 18 3 45 1,666 2.70%
  Total   20 51 8 119 5,133 2.32%
I Wanna Dance T-5 Jax 5 15 1 57 1,454 3.92%
    Phx 6 20 11 40 2,333 1.71%
    Ral 9 25 1 74 2,579 2.87%
  Total   19 60 13 171 6,366 2.69%
M3GAN T-19 Jax 5 20 0 7 1,758 0.40%
    Phx 5 13 0 9 2,039 0.44%
    Ral 7 14 0 12 1,817 0.66%
  Total   17 47 0 28 5,614 0.50%
Puss in Boots T-4 Jax 6 60 3 73 6,668 1.09%
    Phx 6 54 12 38 7,034 0.54%
    Ral 7 57 10 122 6,745 1.81%
  Total   19 171 25 233 20,447 1.14%

 

Puss in Boots T-4 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .301x (1.5m)

 - Minions 2 - .379x (4.08m)

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Super Pets - 1.765x (3.88m)

 - Paw Patrol - .893x (4.04m)

 - Strange World - 5.295x (4.24m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .41x (1.31m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.49x (1.74m)

 - Respect - 3.56x (2.32m)

 

Babylon T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .285x (913k)

 - Bullet Train - .355x (1.19m)

 - Amsterdam - missed

 

M3GAN T-19 comps

 - Nope - missed

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Babylon T-4 Jax 5 13 3 24 1,430 1.68%
    Phx 7 20 9 62 2,037 3.04%
    Ral 8 18 12 57 1,666 3.42%
  Total   20 51 24 143 5,133 2.79%
I Wanna Dance T-4 Jax 5 15 2 59 1,454 4.06%
    Phx 7 22 2 42 2,503 1.68%
    Ral 9 25 0 74 2,579 2.87%
  Total   20 62 4 175 6,536 2.68%
M3GAN T-18 Jax 5 20 0 7 1,758 0.40%
    Phx 5 13 0 9 2,039 0.44%
    Ral 7 14 0 12 1,817 0.66%
  Total   17 47 0 28 5,614 0.50%
Puss in Boots T-3 Jax 6 60 15 88 6,668 1.32%
    Phx 6 54 1 39 7,034 0.55%
    Ral 7 57 16 138 6,745 2.05%
  Total   19 171 32 265 20,447 1.30%

 

Puss in Boots T-3 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .299x (1.49m)

 - Minions 2 - .329x (3.5m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.196x (2.99m)

 - Super Pets - 1.523x (3.35m)

 - Paw Patrol - .629x (2.85m)

 - Strange World - 4.65x (3.72m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 3.07x (1.54m)

 - Respect - 3.3x (2.15m)

 

Babylon T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Bullet Train - .388x (1.3m)

 - Amsterdam - missed

 

M3GAN T-18 comps

 - Nope - .104x (666k)

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23 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 113 562 16775 3.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

4.532x of Encanto T-5 (6.8M)

0.256x of Sing 2 T-5 (2.49M)

0.548x of Sonic 2 T-5 (3.43M)

1.351x of Lightyear T-5 (7.02M)

1.329x of Minions 2 T-5 (14.28M)

5.854x of Super Pets T-5 (12.88M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 113 576 16775 3.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

4.000x of Encanto T-4 (6M)

0.257x of Sing 2 T-4 (2.5M)

0.496x of Sonic 2 T-4 (3.1M)

1.134x of Lightyear T-4 (5.9M)

1.185x of Minions 2 T-4 (12.74M)

5.284x of Super Pets T-4 (11.62M)

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23 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 25 5433 0.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.658x of The Conjuring 3 T-20 (6.45M)

0.105x of Scream T-20 (368K)

0.100x of Nope T-20 (643K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 33 25 5433 0.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.521x of The Conjuring 3 T-19 (5.1M)

0.105x of Scream T-19 (368K)

0.098x of Nope T-19 (627K)

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sat) 3D 54 582 2,226 6,693 33.26% $14.20 $31,619.37
    PLF 36 674 3,697 7,710 47.95% $15.34 $56,702.91
    Standard 135 1,432 3,450 15,337 22.49% $10.65 $36,734.11
  Total   225 2,688 9,373 29,740 31.52% $13.34 $125,056.39
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sun) 3D 54 247 1,084 6,693 16.20% $13.91 $15,081.39
    PLF 36 397 2,416 7,704 31.36% $15.29 $36,951.12
    Standard 133 378 1,502 15,049 9.98% $10.41 $15,641.84
  Total   223 1,022 5,002 29,446 16.99% $13.53 $67,674.35

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 103 1,140 4,438 13,995 31.71% $15.71 $69,720.50
    Y 122 1,548 4,935 15,745 31.34% $11.21 $55,335.89
  Total   225 2,688 9,373 29,740 31.52% $13.34 $125,056.39
T-1 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 101 436 1,939 13,631 14.22% $16.82 $32,612.44
    Y 122 586 3,063 15,815 19.37% $11.45 $35,061.91
  Total   223 1,022 5,002 29,446 16.99% $13.53 $67,674.35

 

Saturday sales didn't get anywhere close to where I was hoping.  It's looking like Friday came in a bit higher and that pretty much balanced out the softer Sat sales to put my adjusted comps on par with expectations.

 

Avatar Sat T-0 comps

 - NWH - .442x (32.68m)

 - Batman - .819x (35.45m)

 - DS2 - .524x (30.32m)

 - Avatar (Re-release) - 14.97x (61.73m)

 - Thor 4 - .816x (34.37m)

 - TG2 - 1.047x (39.8m)

 - JW3 - .605x (28.38m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 36.5m Friday)

 - NWH - 44.75m

 - Batman - 45.21m

 - DS2 - 40.07m

 - TG2 - 46.62m

 - JW3 - 46.17m

 - Thor 4 - 43.2m

 

Very promising numbers here - I'll put my projection at 46m

 

Avatar Sun T-1 comps

 - NWH - .455x (29.24m)

 - Batman - .928x (31.69m)

 - Thor 4 - .899x (32.5m)

 

Adjusted Sun comps (using 46m Sat)

 - NWH - 40.6m

 - Batman - 40.77m

 - Thor 4 - 37.93m

 

Looking promising for around 40m Sunday

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sun) 3D 54 687 1,771 6,693 26.46% $13.92 $24,656.23
    PLF 36 735 3,151 7,704 40.90% $15.01 $47,283.85
    Standard 133 1,412 2,914 15,049 19.36% $10.38 $30,243.69
  Total   223 2,834 7,836 29,446 26.61% $13.04 $102,183.77

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 101 1,035 2,974 13,631 21.82% $16.06 $47,764.62
    Y 122 1,799 4,862 15,815 30.74% $11.19 $54,419.15
  Total   223 2,834 7,836 29,446 26.61% $13.04 $102,183.77

 

~45m for Saturday not too far off from projected.

 

Avatar Sun T-0 comps

 - NWH - .39x (25.03m)

 - Batman - .787x (26.85m)

 - Thor 4 - .851x (27.64m)

 - TG2 - .947x (34.75m)

 - JW3 - .589x (22.75m)

 - DS2 - .7x (27.22m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 45m Sat & 36m Fri)

 - NWH - 34.13m

 - Batman - 33.93m

 - Thor 4 - 35.23m

 - TG2 - 39.7m

 - JW3 - 36.29m

 - DS2 - 37.95m

 

I'm expecting around 35.5m for Sunday.  

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