The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

32 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Is JWD going to come crashing down or will Thor/BPWF explode upwards? Feels like the convergence has to be right at $18M weighted.

If the numbers I have are correct, then Thor, BWPF and Batman all increased by 43-45% from T-1 to T-F. TGM was about +55%, while JWD was +68%. Avatwo is probably looking at something around +50%. So yes, the JWD comp will come crashing down (plus the fact that esp JWD and also TGM were softer for Alpha, so the values there may be overstated if Alpha doesn't underindex)

[M37]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Last I checked, ThFSS ratios for Avatar in Drafthouse are (surprisingly) close to where Batman ended up (using true Thur only)    That was roughly an 8x from a ~$16M Thursday 
 

 

Alright, went back and looked for sure - Avatar is closest to Batman, which itself was an anomaly among the comps, but still looks leggier (higher IM) at first glance:

Also interesting: while normally the share of TFSS sales for Thursday steadily declines as release gets closer - as the first burst of sales is Thursday heavy before later spreading out over the weekend - Avatwo has basically held steady at ~21.5% since T-12.

 

 

But, if we look at @katnisscinnaplex breakdown by format from Santikos (thanks for adding the 3D!), the picture looks a little different, in that its clearly the PLF driving that curve shape, while the 2D and 3D are much less spread over the weekend

 

Worth noting that neither of these samples may be representative, in that Drafthouse is advance sale heavy but light on PLF, while Santikos is lighter on presales/higher walk-ups

 

3 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out! Thank you to @Korra Legion @Menor Reborn @M37 and @hw64 for the detailed analysis of the current data

 

FTR, if you had to put a hard number on the IM right now, where would you land?

 

 

If you remove EA (so use True Thursday), Batman was about 8x, and TGM was about 8.2x on a  holiday weekend. So in a vacuum, could argue that not having those early PLF shows to burn off demand would help push more sales to the weekend and raise the IM higher. But the sales for Avatwo are so PLF heavy, with limited capacity (unless you want a 10PM+ show), that I can't help but think the daily breakdown is a bit of a mirage, and a lower walk-up rate will have it come in right around a similar 8x [while also not be shocked if it goes 8.5x+]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	296	27849	34119	6270	18.38%

 

Total Showings Added Today	19
Total Seats Added Today	1195
Total Seats Sold Today	723

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	281.17		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	167.78%		17.43m
Dune	359.93		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	215.09%		18.36m
Bats	79.19		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		21117	29.69%		17.10m
TGM	71.98		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	54.65%		13.86m
JWD	91.41		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	57.18%		16.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1498/11416  [13.12% sold]
Matinee:      452/3536  [12.78% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:           3978/18743  [21.22% | 63.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:      2751/7439  [36.98% | 43.88% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Decided to swap out FB3 for NTTD as I never really liked the FB3 comp (which over-performed here) and A2 looks to following a more adult-skewed film pre-sale pattern.  Don't like that NTTD will be before the latest round of ticket price hikes, but A2 having more kids tickets sold should help there.  NTTD's PLF penetration was aksually pretty solid at 44%, so that should help keep it in the right ballpark.  Still think Dune is gonna be the best when all is said and done.

 

Also, a reminder that both The Batman and Top Gun: Maverick had their Early Access screenings at T-2, which will skew both of their daily comps.  Just something to keep in mind over the next couple of days.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	309	27735	34976	7241	20.70%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	857
Total Seats Sold Today	971

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	259.91		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	193.77%		16.11m
Dune	343.66		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	248.40%		17.53m
Bats	75.91		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		21117	34.29%		16.40m
TGM	74.99		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	63.11%		14.44m
JWD	86.01		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	66.03%		15.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1788/12273  [14.57% sold]
Matinee:      528/3924  [13.46% | 7.29% of all tickets sold]
3D:            4412/18743  [23.54% | 60.93% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:      2955/7439  [39.72% | 40.81% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/14/2022 at 9:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-1	Jax	5	104	243	2,201	13,015	16.91%
		Phx	7	115	330	1,919	16,203	11.84%
		Ral	8	97	262	2,052	11,199	18.32%
ATP: $15.99	Total		20	316	835	6,172	40,417	15.27%
Babylon	T-8	Jax	5	12	-2	16	1,380	1.16%
		Phx	5	15	7	47	1,489	3.16%
		Ral	8	17	2	36	1,618	2.22%
	Total		18	44	7	99	4,487	2.21%
I Wanna Dance	T-8	Jax	5	15	2	35	1,454	2.41%
		Phx	5	17	0	29	1,451	2.00%
		Ral	9	25	0	58	2,579	2.25%
	Total		18	57	2	122	5,484	2.22%
M3GAN	T-22	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	0	9	1,327	0.68%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	0	24	4,902	0.49%
Puss in Boots	T-7	Jax	6	53	0	26	5,228	0.50%
		Phx	6	48	1	13	5,995	0.22%
		Ral	6	36	11	69	4,216	1.64%
	Total		18	137	12	108	15,439	0.70%

 

Lots of new shows added for A2 and Puss in Boots

 

Avatar 2 T-1 comps

 - Eternals - 1.806x (17.16m)

 - TG2 - .821x (15.84m)

 - JW3 - .897x (16.14m)

 - F9 - 2.83x (20.09m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.41x (18.28m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.49x (14.94m)

 - Dune - 3.5x (17.85m)

 - Batman - .84x (14.79m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.83m

 - JW3 - 17.38m

 - FB3 - 17.92m

 - Batman - 17.33m

 

Not too much change after a bad day yesterday.  Lowering a little to 18m expectation now.  

 

Puss in Boots T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .196x (978k)

 - Minions 2 - .243x (2.61m)

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Super Pets - 1.44x (3.17m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .384x (1.23m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.21x (2.1m)

 - Respect - 3.49x (2.27m)

 

Babylon T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .311x (996k)

 - Bullet Train - .407x (1.36m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.87x (1.03m)

 

M3GAN T-22 comps

 - Nope - .103x (656k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-0	Jax	5	118	388	2,589	15,214	17.02%
		Phx	7	129	423	2,342	17,199	13.62%
		Ral	8	113	322	2,374	12,287	19.32%
ATP: $15.79	Total		20	360	1,133	7,305	44,700	16.34%
Babylon	T-7	Jax	5	12	0	16	1,380	1.16%
		Phx	5	15	0	47	1,489	3.16%
		Ral	8	17	3	39	1,618	2.41%
	Total		18	44	3	102	4,487	2.27%
I Wanna Dance	T-7	Jax	5	15	12	47	1,454	3.23%
		Phx	5	17	-1	28	1,451	1.93%
		Ral	9	25	7	65	2,579	2.52%
	Total		18	57	18	140	5,484	2.55%
M3GAN	T-21	Jax	5	20	1	6	1,758	0.34%
		Phx	4	11	0	9	1,327	0.68%
		Ral	7	14	2	12	1,817	0.66%
	Total		16	45	3	27	4,902	0.55%
Puss in Boots	T-6	Jax	6	53	34	60	5,228	1.15%
		Phx	6	54	4	17	7,034	0.24%
		Ral	7	40	24	93	4,892	1.90%
	Total		19	147	62	170	17,154	0.99%

 

Another 44 shows added for tonight.  

 

Avatar 2 T-0 comps

 - Eternals - 1.762x (16.74m)

 - TG2 - .847x (16.35m)

 - JW3 - .885x (15.92m)

 - F9 - 2.39x (16.97m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.08x (16.92m)

 - NTTD - 3.25x (16.89m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.5x (15m)

 - Dune - 3.3x (16.84m)

 - Batman - .806x (14.18m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.09m

 - JW3 - 16.93m

 - FB3 - 17.77m

 - Batman - 16.41m

 

That my friends, is convergence.  And it is beautiful.  Before adjusting for ATP we'd be looking at around 16.8m preview for tonight.  With the higher ATP we could see somewhere around 18m.  I'm hoping to do another update today if I have time, but with Santikos added, that would mean a total of 1,851 shows today.  Did I mention I have a day job?

 

Puss in Boots T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .281x (1.4m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 7.39x (4.25m)

 - Super Pets - 1.67x (3.67m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .401x (1.28m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.38x (2.19m)

 - Respect - 2.98x (1.94m)

 

Babylon T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .292x (935k)

 - Bullet Train - .376x (1.26m)

 - Amsterdam - missed

 

M3GAN T-21 comps

 - Nope - .114x (729k)

Edited December 15, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Added ATP

[Tinalera]

Sadly will not be able to get a final east coast count today, got things going on and running about sadly. A quick look at the seating however tells me the number probably isn't that much different from last count.

 

This has been an enjoyable experience all considered though, and will go some more in the new year with doing cross Canada counts. As I have said before I may resume comps but will stick to Toronto only for those so the numbers are comparable to previous counts.

 

I admit I was expecting more activity from Avatar 2 then it was shown, I was expecting Infinity War/end game type nuttiness, but suprisingly I think most of my counts didn't get much past the 10 percent sold mark, and certainly I had no 20 percents, I think maybe 13 was highest. Going to be very interested to see how the movie ends up doing this weekend.

 

Now to enjoy a nice Christmas/New Years break. I don't think Ill be tackling Megan. Over Holidays, might do a T-7 deal with a week to go.

[keysersoze123]

Avatar Ways of Water(T-1) MTC2 previews - 130623/739839 1995289.87 5790 shows. 

 

Let us see how walkups go today. I am not certain I will be able to provide final day data. But Alpha is the key. That is around 3.2m at T-1. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar 2	3D	36	117	1,260	4,462	28.24%	$15.23	$19,187.30
		PLF	22	99	1,823	4,763	38.27%	$16.00	$29,167.17
		Standard	102	345	1,542	11,602	13.29%	$12.10	$18,659.59
	Total		160	561	4,625	20,827	22.21%	$14.49	$67,014.06
T-2	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	54	195	1,272	6,693	19.00%	$15.35	$19,521.63
		PLF	36	249	2,369	7,704	30.75%	$16.27	$38,546.11
		Standard	140	347	1,482	16,029	9.25%	$11.70	$17,346.28
	Total		230	791	5,123	30,426	16.84%	$14.72	$75,414.02
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	54	141	1,268	6,693	18.95%	$14.36	$18,205.88
		PLF	36	245	2,454	7,710	31.83%	$15.58	$38,234.52
		Standard	135	220	1,155	15,337	7.53%	$10.98	$12,678.22
	Total		225	606	4,877	29,740	16.40%	$14.17	$69,118.62
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	54	76	636	6,693	9.50%	$13.76	$8,753.65
		PLF	36	185	1,567	7,704	20.34%	$15.39	$24,110.00
		Standard	133	108	759	15,049	5.04%	$10.21	$7,749.22
	Total		223	369	2,962	29,446	10.06%	$13.71	$40,612.87

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar 2	N	119	433	3,596	15,591	23.06%	$15.25	$54,832.15
		Y	41	128	1,029	5,236	19.65%	$11.84	$12,181.91
	Total		160	561	4,625	20,827	22.21%	$14.49	$67,014.06
T-2	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	106	500	3,778	14,254	26.50%	$15.80	$59,710.74
		Y	124	291	1,345	16,172	8.32%	$11.68	$15,703.28
	Total		230	791	5,123	30,426	16.84%	$14.72	$75,414.02
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	103	284	2,427	13,995	17.34%	$16.64	$40,385.39
		Y	122	322	2,450	15,745	15.56%	$11.73	$28,733.23
	Total		225	606	4,877	29,740	16.40%	$14.17	$69,118.62
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	101	173	1,093	13,631	8.02%	$17.41	$19,030.18
		Y	122	196	1,869	15,815	11.82%	$11.55	$21,582.69
	Total		223	369	2,962	29,446	10.06%	$13.71	$40,612.87

 

Avatar previews T-1 comps

 - NWH - .243x (12.16m)

 - Batman - .767x (13.5m)

 - Thor 4 - .5x (14.5m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - BP2 - .573x (16.04m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.119x (16.45m)

 - FB3 - 2.99x (17.95m)

 - JW3 - .637x (11.47m)

 

Based on Santikos I'd guess somewhere between 16.5m and 17m.  

 

Avatar Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .305x (21.92m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman - .796x (27.85m)

 - TG2 - 1.044x (34.16m)

 - JW3 - .62x (25.78m)

 - Thor 4 - .806x (32.7m)

 

Avatar Sat T-3 comps

 - NWH - .336x (24.84m)

 

Avatar Sun T-4 comps

 - NWH - .3x (19.28m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar 2	3D	36	177	1,437	4,462	32.21%	$15.12	$21,726.55
		PLF	22	197	2,020	4,763	42.41%	$15.94	$32,203.57
		Standard	102	620	2,162	11,602	18.63%	$11.95	$25,839.99
	Total		160	994	5,619	20,827	26.98%	$14.20	$79,770.11
T-1	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	54	224	1,496	6,693	22.35%	$15.22	$22,775.42
		PLF	36	248	2,617	7,704	33.97%	$16.18	$42,330.94
		Standard	140	411	1,893	16,029	11.81%	$11.71	$22,160.41
	Total		230	883	6,006	30,426	19.74%	$14.53	$87,266.77
T-2	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	54	180	1,448	6,693	21.63%	$14.33	$20,748.65
		PLF	36	264	2,718	7,710	35.25%	$15.55	$42,273.82
		Standard	135	286	1,441	15,337	9.40%	$10.91	$15,719.29
	Total		225	730	5,607	29,740	18.85%	$14.04	$78,741.76
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	54	66	702	6,693	10.49%	$13.84	$9,715.88
		PLF	36	145	1,712	7,704	22.22%	$15.36	$26,299.59
		Standard	133	157	916	15,049	6.09%	$10.25	$9,389.11
	Total		223	368	3,330	29,446	11.31%	$13.64	$45,404.58

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar 2	N	119	756	4,352	15,591	27.91%	$14.94	$65,020.35
		Y	41	238	1,267	5,236	24.20%	$11.64	$14,749.76
	Total		160	994	5,619	20,827	26.98%	$14.20	$79,770.11
T-1	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	106	597	4,375	14,254	30.69%	$15.61	$68,301.16
		Y	124	286	1,631	16,172	10.09%	$11.63	$18,965.61
	Total		230	883	6,006	30,426	19.74%	$14.53	$87,266.77
T-2	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	103	369	2,796	13,995	19.98%	$16.45	$45,996.52
		Y	122	361	2,811	15,745	17.85%	$11.65	$32,745.24
	Total		225	730	5,607	29,740	18.85%	$14.04	$78,741.76
T-3	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	101	137	1,230	13,631	9.02%	$17.28	$21,248.35
		Y	122	231	2,100	15,815	13.28%	$11.50	$24,156.23
	Total		223	368	3,330	29,446	11.31%	$13.64	$45,404.58

 

Avatar previews T-0 comps

 - NWH - .283x (14.14m)

 - Batman - .751x (13.22m)

 - Thor 4 - .496x (14.38m)

 - DS2 - .354x (12.75m)

 - BP2 - .551x (15.44m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.099x (16.15m)

 - FB3 - 2.789x (16.73m)

 - JW3 - .629x (11.31m)

 

The non-CBM/non dinos movies are looking pretty similar to my regionals (mid 16s).  Accounting for ATP I would say Santikos would put it somewhere around 17.5m.

 

Avatar Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .331x (23.79m)

 - DS2 - .451x (24.66m)

 - Batman - .776x (27.18m)

 - TG2 - 1.038x (33.96m)

 - JW3 - .588x (24.45m)

 - Thor 4 - .772x (31.32m)

 - Avatar (Re-release) - 11.92x (40.2m)

 

Avatar Sat T-2 comps

 - NWH - .357x (26.43m)

 

Avatar Sun T-3 comps

 - NWH - .303x (19.47m)

[TalismanRing]

I was going to update but oddly my theater lost it's RPX showings and replaced them with more regular 3D showings to raise the overall preview count from 10-12.  Unfortunately the RPX showings accounted for 60% of ticket sales so overall ticket sales dropped from yesterday so comps are even more worthless than before.

[M37]

On 12/14/2022 at 10:40 AM, M37 said:

Averages through T-2

 

Really not a good Tuesday, both in terms of sales, and where the bar was set for reviews to help push people off the fence. 

 

Since T-14, sales overall have paced very similarly to TGM in Sacto ... which is a fairly tepid finish,  given how hot sales started in that market before cooling off at the end. That continued pace would project to only a ~30-35% additional increase between now and T-0. Since T-7, we're not quite at the lower growth rate of most high-volume CBMs, but also not all that far above it either. Probably at the point where $16M Thursday might be the more accurate target, and its honestly not clear if that number will even be reached without some momentum in the final days (though ATP could push it over)

 

We (i.e. the boards) are here:

Average chart for T-1

 

Looks like around $17M ($16-$18M) is where this is headed, as sales were decent yesterday (in context of the past week) ... but also they look to be mostly of the 2D version, which is going to lower the ATP bump vs comps. That the two "best" comps - TGM and Batman - both had somewhat atypical market distribution adds an extra layer of nuance that makes precision more difficult. Going to have to wait until final numbers to see whether its leaning towards higher or lower end of the range

 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

I was going to update but oddly my theater lost it's RPX showings and replaced them with more regular 3D showings to raise the overall preview count from 10-12.  Unfortunately the RPX showings accounted for 60% of ticket sales so overall ticket sales dropped from yesterday so comps are even more worthless than before.

The jumping around of my ticket sales with seats moving/appearing/disappearing/totally different seat counts for films (and apparently breaking up certain seat sales into literally different load screens)-it was nutty trying to keep up with it all. So I definitely feel that pain!

[ZackM]

14 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	182	783	508	7	46
Seats Added	17,478	88,682	62,015	1,025	5,853
Seats Sold	20,751	14,885	11,782	9,482	6,678
12/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,445	177,431	976,900	18.16%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	12	74	206	411
ATP
$17.91

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$14.2	$15.6	$14.2	$15.7	$20.5	$21.6	$13.4	$14.7	$18.4	$19.9
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

Welp...We'll see if walkups change anything, but the trend is not good.  Also should note for the sake of this update that The Batman's final day was really weird.

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	115	182	783	508	7
Seats Added	12,111	17,478	88,682	62,015	1,025
Seats Sold	18,737	20,751	14,885	11,782	9,482
12/15/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,560	196,168	989,011	19.83%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	81	242	481
ATP
$17.73

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$13.9	$15.3	$14.2	$15.6	$19.0	$20.1	$12.3	$13.7	$17.9	$19.4
T-1	$14.2	$15.6	$14.2	$15.7	$20.5	$21.6	$13.4	$14.7	$18.4	$19.9
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Welp...We'll see if walkups change anything, but the trend is not good.  Also should note for the sake of this update that The Batman's final day was really weird.

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	115	182	783	508	7
Seats Added	12,111	17,478	88,682	62,015	1,025
Seats Sold	18,737	20,751	14,885	11,782	9,482
12/15/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,560	196,168	989,011	19.83%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	81	242	481
ATP
$17.73

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$13.9	$15.3	$14.2	$15.6	$19.0	$20.1	$12.3	$13.7	$17.9	$19.4
T-1	$14.2	$15.6	$14.2	$15.7	$20.5	$21.6	$13.4	$14.7	$18.4	$19.9
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

Falling behind the CBMs pace at this checkpoint is no bueno, especially as Avatwo will have weaker late show and so less time to recover

 

Can't help but wonder if yesterdays decent numbers were more of a blip due to the expansion of 2D show offerings, and less an indicator of finally pickup up steam. But we wait for more data ...

 

Also, good to hear I'm not the only one who see weirdness in Batman's sales pattern

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Falling behind the CBMs pace at this checkpoint is no bueno, especially as Avatwo will have weaker late show and so less time to recover

 

Can't help but wonder if yesterdays decent numbers were more of a blip due to the expansion of 2D show offerings, and less an indicator of finally pickup up steam. But we wait for more data ...

 

Also, good to hear I'm not the only one who see weirdness in Batman's sales pattern

On the other hand TGM had the exact same Wed-Thu drop and recovered a bit with walkups. But as you note (and as we saw with Korea OD) a 3-hour movie is gonna struggle with night walkups.

[JustLurking]

bleh. hopefully the sat-sun frame can do decent on walkups.

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	309	27735	34976	7241	20.70%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	857
Total Seats Sold Today	971

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	259.91		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	193.77%		16.11m
Dune	343.66		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	248.40%		17.53m
Bats	75.91		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		21117	34.29%		16.40m
TGM	74.99		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	63.11%		14.44m
JWD	86.01		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	66.03%		15.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1788/12273  [14.57% sold]
Matinee:      528/3924  [13.46% | 7.29% of all tickets sold]
3D:            4412/18743  [23.54% | 60.93% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:      2955/7439  [39.72% | 40.81% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	310	27128	35035	7907	22.57%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	59
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	666

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	255.97		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	211.59%		15.87m
Dune [12:00-12:20]	330.70		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	271.25%		16.87m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	75.46		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		21117	37.44%		16.30m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	76.30		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	68.91%		14.70m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	83.32		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	72.10%		15.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       2009/12273  [16.37% sold]
Matinee:       614/3924  [15.65% | 7.77% of all tickets sold]
3D:           4692/18743  [25.03% | 59.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:       3110/7439  [41.81% | 39.33% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

666

 

IT'S A SIGN!!!!!!!!

Edited December 15, 2022 by Porthos
Didn't update comps. Whoopsie!

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Valley preview night update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water.

 

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 327 (+82 😃)

Cinemark Draper XD 356 (+36 🤨)

Cinemark Farmington XD 445 (+61 🤷‍♂️)

Total Tix Sold: 1128 (+179), increase of 18.9% from yesterday.

 

Final comps:

Nope 375%

Black Adam 304%

B.P. Wakanda 92.5%

 

Final Comps, Sugarhouse only:

Elvis 340%

JW: Dominion 89.8%

The Bat 77.7%

Thor: L&T 65.4%

 

Sugarhouse Friday presale is 117% of preview night.

Sugarhouse Saturday presale is 119.6% of preview night.

 

Not a bad day given the terrible weather here in the valley. (The sun finally came out about 45 minutes ago and the streets are starting to clear, so walk ups shouldn't be hindered much if at all.) With the weekend still looking strong and the ATP premium not accounted for in any of my comps, I'll go with 18/153.

 

 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Welp...We'll see if walkups change anything, but the trend is not good.  Also should note for the sake of this update that The Batman's final day was really weird.

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	115	182	783	508	7
Seats Added	12,111	17,478	88,682	62,015	1,025
Seats Sold	18,737	20,751	14,885	11,782	9,482
12/15/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,560	196,168	989,011	19.83%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	81	242	481
ATP
$17.73

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$13.9	$15.3	$14.2	$15.6	$19.0	$20.1	$12.3	$13.7	$17.9	$19.4
T-1	$14.2	$15.6	$14.2	$15.7	$20.5	$21.6	$13.4	$14.7	$18.4	$19.9
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

Solid wed and weak th perfectly matches overseas pattern.

 

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

bleh. hopefully the sat-sun frame can do decent on walkups.

Don’t bet on it, lol. More likely the exact opposite 

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(294 showings): 10509(+1117)/35943 ATP: $15.58

0.480x Thor L&T T-1 (13.93M)

0.922x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (16.60M)

1.04x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-1 (15.85M)

 

T-2 Friday(507 showings): 14149(+1724)/61722 ATP: $15.78

0.694x Thor L&T T-2 (28.13M)

0.981x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (40.79M)

1.09x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (35.57M)

 

T-3 Saturday(530 showings): 15010(+1752)/64174 ATP: $15.17

0.789x Thor L&T T-3 (33.23M)

1.11x Jurassic World Dominion T-3 (52.10M)

128x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (48.79M)

 

T-4 Sunday(510 showings): 9632(+892)/61327 ATP: $14.99

0.832x Thor L&T T-4 (27.05M)

1.21x Jurassic World Dominion T-4 (46.59M)

1.29x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (47.30M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(294 showings): 12938(+2429)/35943 ATP: $15.54

0.484x Thor L&T T-0 (14.03M)

0.885x Jurassic World Dominion T-0 (15.94M)

1.01x Top Gun Maverick Thurs only T-0 (15.46M)

 

T-1 Friday(507 showings): 16462(+2313)/61722 ATP: $15.67

0.662x Thor L&T T-1 (26.83M)

1.05x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (34.31M)

 

T-2 Saturday(530 showings): 17167(+2157)/64174 ATP: $15.12

0.757x Thor L&T T-2 (31.89M)

1.25x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (47.48M)

 

T-3 Sunday(510 showings): 10882(+1250)/61327 ATP: $14.96

0.805x Thor L&T T-3 (26.17M)

1.21x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (44.22M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	310	27128	35035	7907	22.57%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	59
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	666

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	283.81		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	211.59%		17.60m
Dune [12:00-12:20]	375.27		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	271.25%		19.14m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	82.89		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		21117	37.44%		17.90m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	81.89		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	68.91%		15.77m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	93.92		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	72.10%		16.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       2009/12273  [16.37% sold]
Matinee:       614/3924  [15.65% | 7.77% of all tickets sold]
3D:           4692/18743  [25.03% | 59.34% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:       3110/7439  [41.81% | 39.33% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

666

 

IT'S A SIGN!!!!!!!!

Looks like the comps are messed up, you have yesterday's totals input for today. 

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(188 showings): 6031(+626)/37740

0.595x Thor L&T T-1 (17.26M)

1.09x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (19.56M)

0.658x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (12.68M)

0.716x Batman T-1 (15.46M)

 

T-2 Friday(269 showings): 7599(+857)/60089

1.10x Thor L&T T-2 (44.41M)

1.07x Jurassic World Dominion T-2 (44.59M)

0.718x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (23.51M)

1.16x Batman T-2 (40.46M)

 

T-3 Saturday(288 showings): 7351(+817)/63242

1.86x Thor L&T T-3

1.48x Jurassic World Dominion T-3

0.903x Top Gun Maverick T-3 (34.33M)

1.93x Batman T-3

 

T-4 Sunday(299 showings): 3808(+403)/67716

2.81x Thor L&T T-4

2.18x Jurassic World Dominion T-4

1.63x Top Gun Maverick T-4

4.20x Batman T-4

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(188 showings): 7378(+1347)/37740

0.507x Thor L&T T-0 (14.69M)

0.892x Jurassic World Dominion T-0 (16.06M)

0.627x Top Gun Maverick T-0 (12.08M)

0.688x Batman T-0 (14.86M)

 

T-1 Friday(269 showings): 8602(+1003)/60089

0.966x Thor L&T T-1 (39.17M)

0.932x Jurassic World Dominion T-1 (38.76M)

0.678x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (22.19M)

0.999x Batman T-1 (34.97M)

 

T-2 Saturday(288 showings): 8310(+959)/63242

1.62x Thor L&T T-2

1.33x Jurassic World Dominion T-2

0.838x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (31.87M)

1.62x Batman T-2

 

T-3 Sunday(299 showings): 4244(+436)/67716

2.42x Thor L&T T-3

1.86x Jurassic World Dominion T-3

1.41x Top Gun Maverick T-3

3.26x Batman T-3

 

As @A Star is Delayed said, the weather was pretty bad in Northern Utah this morning/early afternoon which may have hindered some late presales.