The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	138	15904	0.87%

 

Comp - T-28

0.440x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.92M)

 

None of my planned comps go out this far, so...here's this flimsy one I guess.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

can do Black Adam first day of sales. Other comp I will suggest is Fantastic Beast 3.

Edited February 17, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Alex SciChannel]

As long as Shazam is over 5M Thursday and 45M 3-day I'll be a happy camper

 

 

 

 

[Verrows]

Box Office Theory: Civil War

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

can do Black Adam first day of sales. Other comp I will suggest is Fantastic Beast 3.

Fantastic Beasts started at T-16, and I generally only do first day of sales for MCU movies and the occasional Avatar/The Batman-style big boy. Did edit in one for Black Adam just for funsies, but I don't really feel like doing a First Two Days of sales thing. It's also partially because I've been dealing with some sleep issues lately, with Ant-Man only harming them further, and...well, I think you can understand that my health comes first.

[Verrows]

Anyway @charlie Jatinder juuust beat me to it but I was going to say Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore feels like a good comp for Shazam (A WB tentpole with practically no hype but still enough built in interest and fan drive for mid sized opening).

[Landon1195]

So what are the current estimates for the previews and overall weekend of Quantumania?

[Porthos]

51 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

can do Black Adam first day of sales. Other comp I will suggest is Fantastic Beast 3.

37 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Anyway @charlie Jatinder juuust beat me to it but I was going to say Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore feels like a good comp for Shazam (A WB tentpole with practically no hype but still enough built in interest and fan drive for mid sized opening).

 

Interesting idea, but locally FB movies over-performed so probs wouldn't look at it for Yours Truly.  Still, I'll keep it in mind.

 

Was more thinking of the dual hit of Sonic 2/Minions 2, though more the former than the latter.  The latter had an abysmal first day, but exploded at the end thanks to TikTok (and just good WOM).  The former though is... intriguing.

 

See how it goes once I'm done for the night and I can check my database of films I have.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So what are the current estimates for the previews and overall weekend of Quantumania?

 

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Yeah, like 17-19*5.3-6.3

 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Interesting idea, but locally FB movies over-performed so probs wouldn't look at it for Yours Truly.  Still, I'll keep it in mind.

 

Was more thinking of the dual hit of Sonic 2/Minions 2, though more the former than the latter.  The latter had an abysmal first day, but exploded at the end thanks to TikTok (and just good WOM).  The former though is... intriguing.

 

See how it goes once I'm done for the night and I can check my database of films I have.

You can use Black Adam, Morbius and The Suicide Squad.

[ZackM]

10 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Final presales...

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	30	119	692	470	4
Seats Added	2,180	11,079	72,557	51,785	516
Seats Sold	20,310	22,726	13,131	11,297	7,064
2/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,476	254,766	1,072,819	23.75%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	14	104	357	707
ATP
$16.95

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$18.4	$19.4	$18.1	$19.0	$16.0	$17.0
T-1	$18.8	$19.8	$18.8	$19.7	$16.4	$17.4
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

 

 

Final numbers

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0
	Walkups	Final Presales	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	30	119	692	470
Seats Added	0	2,180	11,079	72,557	51,785
Seats Sold	62,119	20,310	22,726	13,131	11,297
2/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,476	316,885	1,072,819	29.54%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	63	240	473
ATP
$16.59

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	$18.2	$19.1	$17.6	$18.4	$17.1	$18.0
T-0	$18.4	$19.4	$18.1	$19.0	$16.0	$17.0
T-1	$18.8	$19.8	$18.8	$19.7	$16.4	$17.4
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	138	15904	0.87%

 

Comp - T-28

0.440x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.92M)

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

0.411x of Black Adam (3.12M)

 

None of my planned comps go out this far, so...here's this flimsy one I guess.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Got to admit, I'm curious about this Dominion comp.  Checking back, I see this at T-28 for JW3:

 

On 5/12/2022 at 8:25 PM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1202	23332	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Is this a case of different theaters not playing it, or was there an error in your comp somewhere? 

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You can use Black Adam, Morbius and The Suicide Squad.

 

I'm trying to stay away from any local comps made before Nov' 21 because of both ATP and theater differences locally.  Plus Shazam 2 probably is much more kids focused than Morbs and especially TSS.  But, sure, I can add it for a Day 1 comp type dealio.

 

(SPOILER ALERT:  Doesn't help )

 

Still playing with how I want to do this, but posting something from Sacto.... soon-ish.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Final numbers

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0
	Walkups	Final Presales	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	30	119	692	470
Seats Added	0	2,180	11,079	72,557	51,785
Seats Sold	62,119	20,310	22,726	13,131	11,297
2/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,476	316,885	1,072,819	29.54%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	63	240	473
ATP
$16.59

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	$18.2	$19.1	$17.6	$18.4	$17.1	$18.0
T-0	$18.4	$19.4	$18.1	$19.0	$16.0	$17.0
T-1	$18.8	$19.8	$18.8	$19.7	$16.4	$17.4
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

so $5.26m tracked, actuals can be $5.3-5.5m. that will point to $18.6-19.4m previews. let's go $19m.

[Porthos]

Alright, gonna make a Quick and Dirty Shazam 2 post here TONIGHT ONLY and then keep track of it on my home sheet just in case it pulls a Sonic 2 — or heaven forbid, a mini-version of Minions 2 — and actually becomes worth a full track at Some Future Point In Time.

 

Not giving great odds on it Ever Becoming Worth It, but I have the info so might as well post it tonight.

 

Quick and Dirty Shazam: Fury of the Gods Sacto Report [T-28]

118/15543 (0.76% sold) [+118 tickets today]

 

0.6629x   The Suicide Squad         on Day 1 [2.72m]
0.5930x   Ghostbusters: Afterlife  on Day 1  [2.67m]
0.3215x    Morbius                           on Day 1 [1.83m]
0.6484x   Sonic 2                            on Day 1 [4.05m]
0.3711x    Fantastic Beasts 3          on Day 1 [2.23m]
0.2770x   Black Adam                     on Day 1 [2.11m]

0.4291x   Nope                                at T-28  [4.29m]

 

...

 

Yeah.  Not a great start locally.  At all.

 

(Minions 2, however, is 18.65m which is lol in the other direction)

 

So gonna keep an eye on this and see if it ever gets interesting.  Kinda think the double whammy of four weeks out + dropping the same night as AM3 is horribly fucking with comps, but, I dunno.  See what it's like at T-21 and reassess (unless given a reason to reassess earlier).

 

ETA::::

 

After thinking about it a bit, threw in a T-28 comp for Nope. None of my other T-28 comps are worth a damn except for Scream VI, and we don't have a comp for it yet.  But for the record:

 

0.5540x Scream VI on Day 1 [???m]

0.4836x Scream VI at T-28   [???m]

Edited February 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

I'm with everybody else in not loving any of these, but probably leaning most towards gba/sonic. It's sort of CBM but sort of kids-ish

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Shazam: Fury of the Gods Sacto Report [T-28]

0.6484x   Sonic 2                            on Day 1 [4.05m]

0.4291x   Nope                                at T-28  [4.29m]

 

Did want to draw attention to a couple of these comps as it just is unusual for a film of this size to have four weeks of pre-sales (and against a big[-ish] opener).  Almost all of the comps which I edited out started their pre-sales at around T-20 plus or minus a three or four days.  At this level of sales anything can really wreck havoc with comps in one direction or the other (as seen by the Minions 2 Day 1 comp).

 

If Shazam 2 has a pre-sale run like a typical CBM, then it's likely toast.  But I think there's a few reasons to think it might, emphasis on might, not.  They've been hashed already in this thread, so no real reason for me to repeat them.  But take a look at the following sale pattern:

 

Sonic 2: [6.25m]	
T-24:	182
T-23:	34
T-22:	34
T-21:	49
T-20:	33
T-19:	8
T-18:	34
T-17:	13
T-16:	40
T-15:	33
T-14:	44
T-13:	48
T-12:	24
T-11:	36
T-10:	36
T-9:	65
T-8:	102
T-7:	99
T-6:	130
T-5:	145
T-4:	172
T-3:	269
T-2:	466
T-1:	787
T-0: 	1068

 

If it, for whatever reason, plays like Sonic 2 and has four more days of pre-sales to pad its totals than Sonic 2, then maybe it could drag itself to 5m or so.  Or even beyond. This combined with the fact that most of those other films had much shorter pre-sale windows makes me curious about just how much Shazam 2 can "make up in volume", as it were, before it gets to around T-17 or so.  

 

Not hitting the copium pipe here, as I really have no rooting interest for or against this film. But do want to make sure that we keep an open mind about its final total, even while I note it had a very poor start locally with absolutely no fan rush whatsoever. 

 

...

 

Well, will allow myself to say "lol at WB for releasing tickets today".  Do think that's fair.    Aside from that, not gonna draw any real conclusions until I get some more data to look at.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I'm with everybody else in not loving any of these, but probably leaning most towards gba/sonic. It's sort of CBM but sort of kids-ish

 

Great minds, as you can see by the post I just made. 👍 

 

Though more Sonic 2 since it started at T-24 than GBA since it started at T-17, as at this level of sales, those extra days really do make a difference.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah I stand by length not mattering much for big day 1s but agree it can be a big factor for small day 1s like this.   
 

Clearly there is ~no urgent fan hype here but it’s a sort of movie that doesn’t necessarily need that to do okay so we’ll just have to be patient.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
80 for Brady	3,231	45,674	-3.72%	45,556	229.59	118	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	3,133	44,701	-22.01%	44,421	216.65	280	0	0
Magic Mike 3	1,363	34,530		30,242		4,288	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,819	32,851	0.91%	32,677	242.02	174	0	102
Avatar 2	2,698	31,806	-7.03%	12,935	331.33	18,871	2,319	16,256
Titanic	2,172	24,578		0		24,578	640	23,938
M3GAN	2,246	23,510	-12.53%	23,462	142.93	48	0	0
A Man Called Otto	2,227	23,359	-12.22%	23,309	159.61	50	0	0
Missing	1,989	21,375	-11.60%	21,352	153.47	23	0	0
Plane	1,471	13,019	-26.57%	12,993	124.15	26	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	1,500	12,024	-23.55%	11,995	80.09	29	0	11
Consecration	738	9,650		9,650		0	0	0
BTS: Yet To Come	779	6,799	-23.37%	6,799	574.78	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	570	2,564	-24.68%	2,549	155.38	15	0	0
Women Talking	399	2,544	-51.99%	2,526	105.32	18	0	0
The Whale	455	2,366	-29.73%	2,363	125.31	3	0	0
The Fabelmans	599	2,092	-29.68%	2,089	102.84	3	0	0
Infinity Pool	339	1,796	-82.40%	1,796	81.89	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/10 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Magic Mike 3 - 34,530 (1,363 TC)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230)

 - King's Man - 29,915 (2,800)

 - House Party - 22,290 (1,323)

(I haven't seen anything with this release strategy since I've been tracking)

Titanic 25 Year - 27,826 (2,172 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 136,131 (3,017 TC)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125)

 - Top Gun - 132,351 (3,199)

Marlowe (5-Day) - 26,513 (1,673 TC)

 - Father Stu (5-Day) - 29,612 (2,001)

 - Bones and All (5-Day) - 30,681 (1,863)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,723 (1,790)

Jesus Revolution - 2,541 (1,613 TC)

Cocaine Bear - 4,967 (2,029 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 5,778 (1,862 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - Scream V - 2,631 (1,258)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668)

 

T-14 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 6,429 (1,235 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ant-Man 3	3,683	191,032		147,834		43,198	5,596	27,297
Magic Mike 3	2,665	34,306	14.61%	34,233	240.52	73	0	0
80 for Brady	2,704	32,309	-29.26%	32,244	126.99	65	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	2,290	28,513	-36.21%	28,473	121.38	40	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,657	27,326	-16.82%	27,182	169.85	144	0	68
Marlowe	2,126	26,363		26,302		61	0	0
Avatar 2	2,303	22,083	-30.57%	7,420	226.94	14,663	6	14,637
Titanic 25 Year	1,891	15,285	-34.56%	0	241.31	15,285	0	15,285
A Man Called Otto	1,358	9,904	-57.60%	9,873	111.40	31	0	0
Missing	1,260	9,216	-56.88%	9,213	119.40	3	0	0
M3GAN	1,255	8,414	-64.21%	8,409	102.60	5	0	0
Plane	505	3,028	-76.74%	3,028	92.51	0	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	402	2,596	-78.41%	2,593		3	0	0
Winnie-the-Pooh	405	1,843		1,843		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/17 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 191,032 (3,683 TC)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340)

 - Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553)

 - Top Gun - 182,709 (3,834)

 - Avatar 2 - 193,730 (3,567)

 - Black Panther 2 - 222,802 (3,599)

Marlowe (3-Day) - 26,363 (2,126 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,926 (1,890)

 - Downton Abbey EA - 2,601 (2,561)

Jesus Revolution - 22,173 (1,873 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815)

 - The 355 - 21,633 (1,838)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 21,967 (1,984)

Cocaine Bear - 33,501 (2,362 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Emily - 4,185 (355 TC)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 - Spirited - 3,793 (282)

 

 

T-2 Week Showtimes Comps

Creed III (2/27 IMAX) - 47 (47 TC)

Creed III (EA) - 1,126 (889 TC)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

Creed III - 3,817 (1,486 TC)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

Demon Slayer (OD) - 3,868 (1,401 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 6,748 (2,192 TC)

 - No Time to Die - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 6,877 (2,065)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Shazam 2 - 8,326 (1,558)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 

T-13 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 9,320 (1,852 TC)

Edited February 17, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add Creed III Imax Premiere

[GOGODanca]

Oh wow Titanic and Avatar still have many PLFs